With this being 7 days out, and looking at the progressive nature of the last 4 runs, this seems to be not far off from something half decent.

Probably just crumbs, but seems interesting:

https://www.wxcharts.com/api/contentwithoverlay/gfs_op/EUR_NA/850temp/2025-12-05T06:00:00Z/2025-12-11T18:00:00Z 

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 

Just to follow on from above and to pick out some 'interesting' charts from the 6z:-

Windy IMBY:-

Wintry for some (it's deep FI and won't look like this next run obviously!):-

A wet 10 days ahead for most places, following a wet first few days of December:-

Slim pickings I guess but being odd I do enjoy proper rainfall, at least it means the weather's doing something and not just drizzly and mild. 

Originally Posted by: Hippydave 

It's actually insane how run after run, with only a couple of exceptions, have shown low pressure sat almost unmoving about halfway between Ireland and Iceland for literally the entire run. AIFS  is particularly strong on this. It feeds front after front over the UK.

The 0z GFS is one run that does try to break the cycle, by showing the blocking over the Arctic ridging southwards in thr 6-8 day period. But it's too far west to really impact us, and quickly gets pushed back north by the next bout of raging cyclogenesis over Baffin/Labrador.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Yes I notice that it is like it doesn't move does it? It will only move another to develop and do the same old thing!

Here @+102z - Low after low heading eastwards off eastern seaboard of USA/Canada - Cyclongenisis? High pressure to our south!

Same here, again one week on we see exact same pattern  @ +270z: - The low is between Iceland and Scotland moving NE only for another one to develop off N.E USA/Canada heading in exactly the same direction - between UK and Iceland!! Meanwhile the right over NW Canada stays strong brining cold arctic air to most of Central Plains and NE USA & Canada plunging them into the Freezer. Meanwhile high pressure remains to our south in exact same position as a week ago on 9th. - Result is large parts of Europe are well above normal with many countries in double figures and some in mid to high teens and only areas around freezing is northern Scandinavia. 

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

850s are alot more blue than green on this mornings output across ECM and GFS

Id say it was the beginning of a new trend, but actually, Im just hoping its the end of the current trend.

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 

With this being 7 days out, and looking at the progressive nature of the last 4 runs, this seems to be not far off from something half decent.

Probably just crumbs, but seems interesting:

https://www.wxcharts.com/api/contentwithoverlay/gfs_op/EUR_NA/850temp/2025-12-05T06:00:00Z/2025-12-11T18:00:00Z 

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 

Is it just me but is the 06z trying to do something different at 144hrs?

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

Yes, climate change is generally good for the UK  but a disaster for other parts of the world as we have already seen in Asia recent weeks, which will fuel climate refugees forced flee to western countries which someone like you will hate

So its not encouraging. It is a disaster for us all

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Who mentioned climate change. Just referring to lovely mild temps 😵‍💫

Cold weather kills more people than hot. Fortunately there’s no clear signal of any cold weather at the moment 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

GFS Pub Run showing a Euro Slug High Rearing up and engulfing the UK. maybe we’ll be having Christmas on the beach perhaps, like down under!!

Originally Posted by: BJBlake 

I've posted this one in the fantasy thread, but worth sticking here too. GEM often verifies better than GFS.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze