With respect to remarks about 1978-9, although the pressure patterns were different over NE Scandinavia and NW Russia at the start of November, the temperatures at 850 were similar with the -5 line at 6am on 2nd November running roughly from Murmansk, skirting the White Sea coast and then south towards the Russia/Ukraine border.
By 4th HP had set up over C and E Europe in 1978 which is what is currently forecast this year, albeit with different alignment. The 1978 HP then ridged N, bathing Scandinavia in autumnal warmth by 9th, with a very cold plunge into Kazakhstan, similar to forecast for this year. Very different set-ups followed but there was a lot of mild weather involved across Europe in both cases.
By 14th in 1978 the really cold airmass had moved further east, and there was little immediate sign of an easterly incursion, although Greenland was experiencing colder 850s than forecast now.
My point is, even with similarities at short range, differences will occur down the track. Analogies are interesting, but more significant larger-scale features, such as what is happening in the Pacific, are more useful in my opinion for speculating further ahead. I'm not denying the world is warmer and the degree & longevity of any cold incursions is most often likely to be less, but to talk with great confidence about early or late cold, or lack of it, based on undisclosed evidence is as risky as the 'front loaded summer' comments back in July.
Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.