The Weather Outlook

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Brian Gaze
07 December 2025 12:45:56
We’re being given another salient reminder that articles, even well-written ones from apparently credible sources, predicting a cold winter in western Europe should be taken with a massive pinch of salt. Things could change in the coming weeks, but the idea that this winter would be front-loaded is looking very iffy, to say the least. I suppose it’s all relative, and if winter doesn’t fire at all, a weak argument could be made that the November cold snap was the “front-loading.”
Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Saint Snow
07 December 2025 14:11:26

We’re being given another salient reminder that articles, even well-written ones from apparently credible sources, predicting a cold winter in western Europe should be taken with a massive pinch of salt. Things could change in the coming weeks, but the idea that this winter would be front-loaded is looking very iffy, to say the least. I suppose it’s all relative, and if winter doesn’t fire at all, a weak argument could be made that the November cold snap was the “front-loading.”

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I don't think anyone credible was predicting a cold or 'front-loaded' winter.

Many did say that teleconnections like ENSO have often favoured a front-loaded winter for the UK, but that's it.

If some click-baiters embellished that for attention, then that's on them.

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Brian Gaze
07 December 2025 14:18:08

I don't think anyone credible was predicting a cold or 'front-loaded' winter.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

I don't like to misquote third parties, but I believe Severe Weather Europe were angling in that direction. Some of their publications were picked up quite widely.

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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The Dub Version
10 December 2025 13:32:24

I don't like to misquote third parties, but I believe Severe Weather Europe were angling in that direction. Some of their publications were picked up quite widely.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

First saw a bbc article on very warm part of pacific could cause cold winter

Then came the met CF 3 month mentioning it

Then all raving on NW by so called experts on background signals.

all wiped out +GW Atlantic firing through and obliterating it all

Berkshire
Saint Snow
10 December 2025 16:04:25

I don't like to misquote third parties, but I believe Severe Weather Europe were angling in that direction. Some of their publications were picked up quite widely.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Who are 'Severe Weather Europe'? And are they credible?

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Sasa
  • Sasa
  • Advanced Member
10 December 2025 16:12:31

Who are 'Severe Weather Europe'? And are they credible?

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

To be honest, I followed them for a few years and haven’t been impressed. The last one was supposed to be severe, as far as I remember, but you know how it turned out. They referred to colder intrusions with increased snow potential for W Europe. Negative QBO and weak Polar vortex was going to be a driver for this.

As it stands you need to go east of  the Urals or central/northern Scandinavia to see some white staff.

Kingston Upon Thames
marco 79
10 December 2025 16:19:20
The WPO is fairly negative ATM..this looks like it's driving cold air out of Alaska across to N.Eastern USA. There is a bit of a rest bite in the feed after early next week as central areas warm up, only to return late December/ early Jan, so probably limiting any blocking to our NE...We can live in hope
Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL
Brian Gaze
26 December 2025 10:57:10
So we've reached Boxing Day and finally temperatures have dipped. That said, despite all the technical and pseudo technical gubbins it really doesn't feel like we're heading for a cold winter. The medium range models have (and continue) offered  hope, but the state of "nature" points to a winter suited to our era rather than 1960s or 80s. 
Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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+1
Windy Willow
26 December 2025 11:27:43
it's been seasonable cool/cold here since at least Christmas eve, even the later, brief, afternoon shower on the 24th felt icy and the wind has been cutting too. Very much "Brrrrr" 🥶weather here, in spite of the current sunshine!
South Holland, Lincs 5m/16ft ASL

When I saw corruption, I was forced to find truth on my own. I couldn't swallow the hypocrisy.

Barry White

It’s the end of the world as we know it (and I feel fine) - R.E.M.

+2
picturesareme
07 January 2026 12:50:17
I think we've had our winter down here. Unlikely to be seeing a repeat of the recent days looking forward. 

Also saw daffodils beginning to bud.w couple days back so spring isn't far away.

fairweather
07 January 2026 21:44:06
Would be a good time to get a decent Easterly. The whole of NW Europe now has snow cover. Not seen that extent for a few years.

https://www.ventusky.com/snow-cover-map/total#p=52.5;23.0;3 

S.Essex, 42m ASL

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