The Weather Outlook

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NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
18 October 2025 07:42:47

Thanks for that - I have been following La Niña reports but that BBC piece is something different and worth watching.

Try this one! 😁

Europe long-range weather forecast for winter 2025-26

https://www.onthesnow.co.uk/news/long-range-weather-forecast-for-europe/ 

Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 

Gosh a blast from the past from the author in the weather library articles.


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

lanky
18 October 2025 11:06:49

Unusually warm North Pacific ocean could mean cold start for the UK winter. Interesting article on the Beeb.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce3xynwwx4yo 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

As far as I could see from that article, they are talking about the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) being in a record "cold" phase during the late summer when the central northern Pacific is anomalously warm and the N American coast is cooler by comparison

Mr Google AI say the following holds

"The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) affects UK winter temperatures indirectly by influencing the

North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which in turn dictates weather patterns. A negative (cold) phase of the PDO is linked to colder, drier winters in the UK, while a positive (warm) phase can contribute to milder, wetter winters."


Martin

Richmond, Surrey

fairweather
18 October 2025 12:03:19

My mum and dad were apparently at a disco on that night - I guess I must have been with my nan or gran!

There was snow on Christmas Eve, but it stopped before midnight and left a covering for Christmas Day. There have been a few close calls, a few technical White Christmases in some areas, including one here (i.e. a flake or two of sleet and/or snow, but nowhere near enough to settle) and a couple of times when some earlier snow survived into Christmas Day. But the big one, i.e. snow falling and settling, has proved elusive for over 50 years. As you say, 95 and 96 were close - close enough for snow to fall while decorations were up, which looked lovely, but still not on the big day.

I used to fervently hope for a textbook white Christmas. I then used to hope for a few days of snow on the ground, 80s style. These days I'll take even an hour of snow producing slush on the ground, but even that's now a twice-a-decade thing at best! Predicting snow has always been a tough job, but it's become even harder now that the bell-curve has shifted so far to the right (1.5C of warming in just 30 years at Brogdale, for example).

There was an article in 2000 in the Indy about children not knowing what snow was as the century went on, which drew much ridicule at the time. While the premise was way over-hyped, the general trend is clear. Already you get odd looks from youngsters when you mention the regular NE'lies and heavy snow of the 80s... I don't think they believe the ancient 45-year-old when he says 6 inches of snow here wasn't especially noteworthy, and that we used to get drifts of powder snow measured in feet! Just look at all the faff over the 2018 "Beast", which - for 3 days at least - was genuinely like the 80s. 

https://web.archive.org/web/20150502225210/http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html 

David Parker, at the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research in Berkshire, says ultimately, British children could have only virtual experience of snow. Via the internet, they might wonder at polar scenes - or eventually "feel" virtual cold.

Heavy snow will return occasionally, says Dr Viner, but when it does we will be unprepared. "We're really going to get caught out. Snow will probably cause chaos in 20 years time [i.e. 2020]," he said.

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Indeed, I have probably mentioned before that I bought my two (now grown up) grandchildren new sledges about ten years ago and they are still unused in the shed!


S.Essex, 42m ASL
fairweather
18 October 2025 12:05:39

Indeed. Even frosts these days seem unusual. I remember frosts for bonfire night in the 80s and leaves mostly fallen from the trees. Now frosts in November are  rare and leaves stay on until late Nov

 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Not here this year, but that is because of the drought. Most of my Rowan, Hawthorn and many Silver Birch leaves have fallen already.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
Saint Snow
18 October 2025 12:08:39
I'd take a front-loaded winter anytime - as long as it delivered like in December 09 & 10

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

fairweather
18 October 2025 12:10:18

Unusually warm North Pacific ocean could mean cold start for the UK winter. Interesting article on the Beeb.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce3xynwwx4yo 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Yes, my daughter just sent me that. Always hard to say how it will affect things here as the article states but at least it's different and combined with a weak La Nina.............  It seems to be implying if we get unusual cold it will be early and by that I take it to mean by mid-January.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
fairweather
19 October 2025 11:49:15

I'd take a front-loaded winter anytime - as long as it delivered like in December 09 & 10

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

As I haven't seen "treacherous" snowy, icy conditions for 10 years I suspect mine may well be front loaded these days when I fall on my face!

🐧


S.Essex, 42m ASL
Brian Gaze
19 October 2025 15:02:53
Three Valleys webcams on this link are very good:

https://www.les3vallees.com/en/live/webcams 


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Sasa
  • Sasa
  • Advanced Member
19 October 2025 17:03:04

Three Valleys webcams on this link are very good:

https://www.les3vallees.com/en/live/webcams 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Nice but did you see these below? I skied here several times and plan to go again in 2026 after of course Val d Isere in run up to Xmas:

https://zermatt.roundshot.com/glacierparadise/#/ 

https://cervinia.panomax.com/plateau-rosa 


Kingston Upon Thames
Sasa
  • Sasa
  • Advanced Member
19 October 2025 17:06:34
Chamonix Weather Centre is now suggesting we could see 1.5–1.7 meters of snow this week at around 2,800m+ .

I haven’t seen a forecast like this for a very long time — especially one arriving before the season in October. Could this be a sign of a cold and snowy winter ahead? We haven’t had one for about 20 years, so we’re probably due for one to crop up.


Kingston Upon Thames
Brian Gaze
19 October 2025 17:40:02

Nice but did you see these below? I skied here several times and plan to go again in 2026 after of course Val d Isere in run up to Xmas:

https://zermatt.roundshot.com/glacierparadise/#/ 

https://cervinia.panomax.com/plateau-rosa 

Originally Posted by: Sasa 

👍Very nice.


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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doctormog
19 October 2025 17:58:05

Nice but did you see these below? I skied here several times and plan to go again in 2026 after of course Val d Isere in run up to Xmas:

https://zermatt.roundshot.com/glacierparadise/#/ 

https://cervinia.panomax.com/plateau-rosa 

Originally Posted by: Sasa 

That second one is gorgeous.


Sasa
  • Sasa
  • Advanced Member
19 October 2025 18:03:53

That second one is gorgeous.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Have a look at it during daylight, when the skies are deep blue though that won’t be happening this week, I’m afraid.

But Brian, you’re a skier the scenery there is truly striking. I haven’t settled there myself, as the town doesn’t have the same charm as, say, Val d’Isère, but the views are to die for, especially if you combine it with the Zermatt ski pass. It’s worth going just for the scenery — wide, uncrowded, and gentle pistes that make for an unforgettable experience.

First half of March is really good time.


Kingston Upon Thames
CField
21 October 2025 20:12:53
Lovely looking chart on gfs 384 hrs 12z run....all sorts of potential.....but I'm keeping  an eye on that small high to the east....seen this before they retrogress in late autumn and set up shop to the south uk then its game over
Favourite snowstorm

Famous channel low

Dec 31st 1978

Hastings East Sussex

Foot of level snow severe drifting

Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius

Sasa
  • Sasa
  • Advanced Member
22 October 2025 20:15:32

I’m keeping an eye on the major snowfall expected to hit the French Alps over the next 3–4 days, which is within the reliable forecast window.

There could be as much as a meter of snow at around 2,000 meters + altitude — that’s quite significant for October.


Kingston Upon Thames
Brian Gaze
28 October 2025 07:52:17
The UK Met Office CPF has been updated and now covers November, December and January. It's (IMO) good news for cold weather fans.

20% cold

60% near average

20% mild

Key from their summary is this:

"This means that the chance of a cold period is greater than it has been in recent years which have tended to be mild "

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-ndj-v1.pdf 


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
28 October 2025 08:01:22

The UK Met Office CPF has been updated and now covers November, December and January. It's (IMO) good news for cold weather fans.

20% cold ...

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Can I modify that to 'fairly good news'?


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

Brian Gaze
28 October 2025 08:37:56

Can I modify that to 'fairly good news'?

Originally Posted by: DEW 

You certainly can! I considered describing it as "fairly good", but decided (subjectively) that as we struggle to get even a single month below CET, the news was as good as could expected for cold weather fans. 


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Sasa
  • Sasa
  • Advanced Member
28 October 2025 09:11:56

Can I modify that to 'fairly good news'?

Originally Posted by: DEW 

Well, for little snow fans like me, even an average or mild winter can still bring one or two colder interludes that result in lying snow. Those brief events get everyone and the media talking, leaving the impression that the winter was much harsher than it really was. On the other hand, a “dry” winter often just means persistent high pressure, clear skies, frosty mornings  but little or no snow.


Kingston Upon Thames
Tim A
29 October 2025 08:12:34
I'm going to near Ivalo in Northern Finland at the end of November into December.   Really anxious there won't be snow.  Looking at historical records I am not sure it has happened that there isn't snow cover by the turn of the month, but the models are relentless in mild temperatures for the foreseeable.  

Ivalo is much further north than Rovaniemi, where things can be dodgy , I still think there is a fair bet it will be snowy by then, but it's a nervous few weeks wait.  Most years the snow pack is already established by now. 


Tim

NW Leeds

187m asl

 My PWS 

29 October 2025 13:32:38
Met November Dec Jan outlook published

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-ndj-v1.pdf 

from what I see, slight chance of colder than normal


Berkshire
Whiteout
29 October 2025 14:16:21

Met November Dec Jan outlook published

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-ndj-v1.pdf 

from what I see, slight chance of colder than normal

Originally Posted by: The Dub Version 

Yes, I can't recall such an outlook in recent times, a good early start to the Winter fun and games.


Home/Work - Dartmoor

240m/785 ft asl

GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
29 October 2025 20:53:18

Yes, I can't recall such an outlook in recent times, a good early start to the Winter fun and games.

Originally Posted by: Whiteout 

Also it is unlikely to be wet according to that forecast. Not good news for those hoping our water reserves will be fully refreshed over the winter.  


Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

White Meadows
29 October 2025 22:20:19

Also it is unlikely to be wet according to that forecast. Not good news for those hoping our water reserves will be fully refreshed over the winter.  

Originally Posted by: GezM 

All adds up to a dry and frosty early December. Beats the usual continual washout but then again that has a fairly equal chance too. 

This Christmas I’ll be at 1100m ASL in the Swiss alps so might cry into my Muslea if it’s rainy while London sees a northeasterly blizzard. 

Brian Gaze
30 October 2025 21:04:59
November may well be a mild month if the current model output is close to the mark. The table below shows the 11 mildest Novembers since 1978.

UserPostedImage


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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