Not Jaded Beast - realistic about the difficulties a cold blast now has to make it to the south, embed there, and deliver anything below normal temperatures in 1.5 degrees of warming and so early in November. However, when you see the gurus of this forum post, you know that means potential to watch for, and cold weather fans are watching and hoping as ever, but with a little more realism to the need for sustained Synoptics to deliver the goods that even a less sustained puff from the cold source might have delivered, When I was approaching teens in ‘73, I remember a transient low interspersed with a mini high, that gave a day of northerlies, and rain showers turned to snow showers (non settling) and then we had a real white frost of -4 before milder weather crept in from the west - with a brief spell of transient snow in places. That sort of casual puff from the Arctic or continent, used to deliver many a mini wintry delight. Nowadays you need a real screamer and a sustained source of cold, as the seas are warmer and cold air is quickly modified. So not jaded - just realistic but when it happens - if anything i get even more excited because it is now so rare to see white fluttering flakes of frozen snow in lowland UK, even to areas once so prone - like here in Norfolk. Having just watched the 1947 documentary on the box, it all started in Norfolk, and you cant imagine the snow and cold today. And I was just old enough to remember 1963 as a number of still images in my head.

The problem is, at least for me, that I've seen it all before. The GFS can be good for picking up pattern changes, but the more extreme solutions it spins up rarely if ever verify when it comes to cold weather.  

Exactly. The water table here is still at summer drought levels. We’ve zero water flowing into our pond since mid-summer and the ground is still dry just below the surface.

We shall see how it plays out but the output at the moment at least is rather promising for a decent November cold spell. I'm not expecting any snow or any notably cold temperatures but it should at least be interesting to see how much the CET drops from the very warm first half.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/Posts/t24393-Model-output-breakout-thread 

MJO forecast is also excellent, entering phase 7 and staying there until December.

It doesn't look particularly notable to me - and latest FI of each of GFS, ECM & AIFS shows high pressure over mainland Europe/the Mediterranean/North Africa, with low pressure centred over/just to the north of the UK, with more Atlantic lows queing up.

I will say, though, that northern Scandy looks like getting an absolute snowfest over the coming week or two.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/1/19215/animmwh8.gif 

That and the near uniform 1cm depth!

You mean like the 0.3mm I've had today?

........ as was last November and the November before that and ............... but there will be that one sooner or later, but probably later. 😀

Could be useful further down the road. Scandinavia, especially Sweden has been lacking decent snowfall for the last couple of years. We need every cold source possible these days.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/streaming/20251111-2000/16/ps2png-worker-commands-59875776cc-dzlt9-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-6k4jkbqn.png 

As for long term I'm with Brian ,not convincing but we live in hope.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50893&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 

Nice to see the 00z ensembles supporting an overall drier spell from 15th too. Should feel quite seasonal. 

The ECM and UKMO charts show around 40-50mm here in 24 hours. Worse further west.

Yes SW midlands and southeast Wales will be watch points for sig flooding. Bear in mind this rain will be entering catchments from an unusual direction too which means river flood modelling may be less reliable than normal. I think there is ‘amber’ flood potential from this one into the early part of the weekend.

Yep, it all looks like the standard fare for the time of year.