And yet when my kids were young in the late 00s and early 10s, I can remember standing at big organised firework displays in sub- or close-to zero temps come 8pm.

I can remember being in York in November 2010 with the temp around freezing and snow piling down so fast we had to change our plans for the day and curtail our trip, having an early meal before trudging back to the car in snow getting on for 6" deep.

And I can remember scraping frost off my car twice earlier this autumn.

I'm far from a climate change denier, and absolutely do support measures to control it. And we are getting generally milder overall, for sure. But I also don't want to fall into the trap of conflating climate and weather.

Saying that, I do think the impacts of CC are being felt more keenly in the SE than further N & W. From longer droughts in summer to a reduction in cold and snow in winter.

I've said it before, the closest official station to here (Faversham) has warmed by 1.5C between 61-90 and 91-20. It's why snow, or even an autumn frost, are so rare nowadays - something which was a 1% chance is now 0.1%, and so on - the bell-curve has shifted relentlessly to the right, and will continue to do so. 

Even that ECM run this morning (which some posters were saying would bring snow showers) just had cold rain down here, with night temperatures around 4C. I still look for the -10C 850 isotherm before I start getting excited, and aside from a single GEFS member a couple of days ago there's not much sign of it in the output - not that I'd expect much at this time of year anyway.

FWIW the ECM zonal wind charts have, and continue to show a spell of weaker westerlies aloft at the end of the month - which should dampen the typical Atlantic zonality. I strongly suspect it's related to the outlook turning a bit less warm as we go into the first half of December, and I daresay it's part of what's leading to the current thoughts of higher pressure / more settled weather for a time. 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202511070000 

We're losing the normal signal for next week now (unsurprisingly it's warmed a little as we've got closer), but the first half of December still looks likely to see normal temperatures for our 91-20 period - and it says a lot that that's pretty exciting these days!

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202511070000&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202512150000 

EDIT: And as an aside, as we've seen the warming trend isn't simply a case of "your usual weather, but slightly warmer", the patterns have changed quite a bit. Put it this way, I won't be anticipating an easterly this year, and I note the AIFS - which is a "here's what would happen in our previous climate" continues to be a wee bit colder than the op when things like the upcoming colder spell are shown. It did that a fair bit last winter, too!

A little overly pedantic gripe, Retron. 'Average' temps are not necessarily 'normal' temps. More often than not, long term averages are made up of the extremes (small or large) on either side of it, and which would be more normal than the stock average they create. 

To all intents and purposes the median and average are the same down here, as temperatures follow a bell curve quite nicely. Yes, there are extremes but they're so rare that they don't have much pull on the average. (Recent examples include 39C in the record-breaking heatwave and -14C in the Beast from the East, one was 16C above average and the other was 16C below!)

Of course we remember when those two Counties and Essex to an extent were perfect for plenty of heavy winter snow showers. Back in the day we had a Continental type winter climate and that warm N.Sea was our friend, setting up waves of heavy convective showers on anything with an N.E to S.E fetch. Now exceptionally rare if they have existed at all in the last decade.

Yes - totally agree with you. The last time I saw snow showers was the lock down winter and before that - the beast from the east. There has been very little fare beyond those exceptions.  Some cold rain or sleet when the situation does manifest.

There is something in that in how traditional patterns have changed regionally. The amounts of snow when we do get them seem to have shifted West. The West Midlands seem to do better than most if snow is around. Also the S.E and EA are much more plagued by High Pressure cloud in both summer and winter and now, whilst still not as hot, the SW in particular seems to do much better for sunshine.

But in terms of real blockbuster cold and snow and blizzards the halcyon days from the 40's to the late 70's and early 80's just aren't happening. When you think of the intervals between the monumental winters 1947 and 1963 and the blizzards and cold of the 70's and 80's the next gap was really to 2010 and that was nothing like the previous epics.  So they can and likely will still happen but the interval will be more like 50 years than 15 years I would imagine.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202511080000&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202511240000 

That'll be quite the shock considering the exceptional warmth we've had lately (and will continue to have next week).

EDIT: And the zonal wind charts continue to tick down, which is good to see (from the POV of someone who likes colder conditions). There seems to be some clustering going on too, with around 70% bringing winds back up and the other 30% keeping them lower than normal. Either way, it should make for a change away from our seemingly endless warmth this year.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202511080000 

Agree as regards SST'S. Getting a cold spell is always going to be harder when we have this set up:

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/sst/anomaly/ 

While SST's seem to have moderated a little over parts of the North Atlantic, they're still very high to our North.

Patience is key, the large scale pattern is excellent especially given the time of year.

No sign of the Atlantic waking up, the juicy charts will come. 

Hope you're right - and it's a waste to get them too soon, anyway.

FAX – Current set up shows a triplex of low pressures in the mid-Atlantic 987mb, 996mb and another 987. These throw a complex set of fronts across the west side of the UK which will pulse rain along them from south-west to north-east. By the 11th the three parts of the Low area have split – one has gone down towards Iberia 975mb, one has gone over towards Denmark 995mb, one remains north of Scotland 993mb. Still southerly flow, still mild. By the 13th (end of the run) there are just two cells remaining off Iberia 884mb and Finland 981mb. These two provide an occluded front from south to north, with a mild airmass covering Wales and England; and a cold from coming from the north covering Scotland. Bit of a battle-ground forming when these two front meet. The next FAX will be very interesting to see how this develops.

GFS – matches the FAX over this period – low pressure dominated, with the duplex Low pressures to the southwest and northeast of the UK. North winds to the north of the UK, south winds to the south of the UK. Day time temps 5 to 10C in the north; 10 to 15C in the south. Overnight temps -1C to -2C in Scotland and generally -1C/+1C in England/Wales too. Yes – probably the cold is coming. By the 14th, there is an Iceland HP 1025mb in position and most of the UK is under Easterly winds – getting to -5C over Scotland and +2C over the south. By 19th there is a real north south split in overnight min with -7C in highlands, +7C around London. By Sunday 23 November the Iceland HP has dropped down into the semi-perm of the Azores High and the UK is on the cold side of the jet. Gentle LP crossing the UK 1005mb giving several rain ‘happenings’ – but this is getting into FI-Land now.

ECM at 120Hrs (14th Nov) is giving good cross-model agreement showing the two LPs – 985mb mid-Atlantic and 970mb over Finland; HP 1030mb just south of Iceland. UK under east/south-east winds and getting cooler. The HP from Iceland does drop down to the Azores, but it does it through a more circuitous route over the UK and Spain. By the 19th Nov, the UK is on the cold side of the jet forecasting low single figures and certainly rain, but probably that good old ‘wintry-mix’ in the north and on higher ground.

GEFS ensembles show very mild to 16th Nov, +6/+7 over 30 Yr mean, then a quick decline, now going below the 30-year mean. Noticeably good agreement for this out to 17th Nov, then the average does go down below the mean from 17th to 22nd. More rain spikes than a flowering cactus to 17th, then a dryer few days before more spikes from a smaller cactus through to the end (25th). Down south the snow row does give a 4 and 3 around the 20th Nov; Glasgow snow row gives 9, 4, 6, 8 over that time; Inverness gives a prediction of a potentially enjoyable 11, 18, 23, 14, 19 over 18th to 22nd Nov. The average is below the mean in Scotland from 13th through to the end of the run (25th), so the cold looks more certain there. Good luck guys.

ECM AIFS London, predicts daytime 14C for London and 11C for Glasgow on the 12th November; dropping to London 9C and Glasgow 3C for the 17th and by the 25th London overnight has +7C, while Glasgow is showing -5C. At the end of the run there are big fat 0 for precipitation; the earlier dates around the 17th there is only a little rain in the north, but more in the south.

Happy weather watching – the first chase is upon us, but a bit early to get carried away.

an overnight frost will be shock for us as well!  Cant remember the last one.  Perhaps January

Much more recent than that. We had a decent run of sharp frosts in mid March and a couple in April.

18 April was the last air frost hereabouts I think.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202511090000