https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202511090000&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202511240000 

The early/mid December cooler spell continues to be shown too, albeit with bits of pink nibbling away at the white "near normal" over the UK.

Ecm ensembles would likely break the record.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 

I always say, beware the 'heatwave' in spring or Autumn because it usually heralds a arctic blast around the corner (or of course vice versa). A subtle difference in the positioning of the anticyclones could bring a blowtorch pattern; though its not the most likely outcome. Either way the prognosis for the next few weeks, and even heading towards December is excellent. Persistent mild conditions in the Canadian Atlantic will, if nothing else, stop sea ice growth there which will make it more likely the polar vortex takes up residence in Siberia rather than the usual Canadian Archipelago. That is obviously very good for those of us that like cold here.

Definitely rate your opinion and knowledge Q, so hope you are correct. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/ens_image.php?geoid=51090&var=203&run=6&date=2025-11-10&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1 

There is lore around here that frosts in October are a signal of a mild winter. We haven't had any frosts at all this autumn so far! I do think there might be something in the idea that stormy and wet Novembers (which this November isn't) can indicate a colder and snowier December. 

These days we get the slush and muck anyway

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=25&run=12&time=234&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

Looks like even more widespread 12 hours earlier.

To put it another way, its the best start to extended winter we've had in a long time.

The last three Novembers with snow cover here in Berkhamsted were:

21st November 2015

29th November 2021

20th November 2024

There may also have been a few instances of snow falling but not settling.

Select UK - Snow Depth on the GEM viewer:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gem.aspx 

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/global/gfs/prod/atmos/headline/images/evs.global_det.acc.hgt_p500.last31days.timeseries_valid00z_f120.g004_nhem.png 

You really do have a different climate there! The last time there was snow on the ground in November here was on the 30th November 2010, when there was 6cm of level snow. And before that... you'd have to go all the way back to late November 1993, when we had a proper easterly blast and a good 6 inches of snow.

Though some of the modelling toys with snow in the mid term I'm not going to get even remotely excited. It is, however, encouraging to see such a quick response to zonal winds falling away, and I hope that for once the way we've seen weather patterns repeat again and again over the past few years works to our [cold weather fans] advantage - the same synoptics just a couple of weeks later would be much colder. 

It’s really not been wet this side of the country.  Here the local ponds are still almost as low as they were in the recent hot dry summers.

It's the same here in Edinburgh as well.

A lot of what I could possibly add to that is more of a subject for the drought thread rather than here, and I don't want to go off-topic here if I can possibly help it (we all know after all, that Brian is never all that chuffed when too many people go off-topic on these threads).

Since this is the MO thread though, I will point to the fact that after an upcoming colder spell by the weekend, there is some model output which is going for a rebuild of high pressure which would bring yet more drier weather. That is something which we've been seeing far too much of this year and that is why in many areas, there has been such a massive issue regarding water scarcity although I do also recognise that this hasn't been such an issue in other areas such as the west of Scotland and where Sean (Tallyho-83) is located down in SW England.

In the NE of Scotland in particular, some areas have only just started to recover from that water scarcity situation but even here in Edinburgh, a very large rainfall deficit continues to remain in place which will only continue to grow even larger as each month keeps on being drier than average. So far this year, we have had such a long run of consecutive drier than average months in a row, that I've actually forgotten the last time that we actually had a wetter than average month.

Even during this month so far, the rainfall total at Edinburgh Gogarbank is only very slightly above the average for this stage of this particular month which means that if we do end up seeing that rebuild of high pressure from the north which some of the model output is pointing to, this month will only end up being drier than average yet again and I am now absolutely sick and tired of recording drier than average months in my area in every single month.

In order for the deficit to be reduced and for further recovery from the overall water scarcity situation to take place, it is therefore more rain which is need here, and not less rain which will only make those matters worse once again.

Except over here in the East! We still need a deluge to refill the aquifers. My local do walking venue still has a a dry lake and chal streams with just leaves and weeds - but not a drop of water in them.  I was hoping for a wet Autumn - but still waiting. We have had a few showers, a bit of drizzle - but not enough deluges to do more than settle the summer dust and perk up the herbs.