(More seasonal as in late autumn not midwinter!)

The position of that LP is forecast to produce some very interesting thermal contrast across the UK. At 9pm next Friday a temperature of 17°C is suggested for S England, with -3 over Central and N Scotland. At 3am the following morning, the figures are 15 and -6.

Neither those exact temperatures or timings are likely to realise, but if any real change evolves around such a low, there will be interesting contrasts. 

As we’re into the ‘JFF’ season (trade mark Gooner), if the pieces fall right you can still get snow on the ground in mid-November:

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=19&ech=252&mode=9&carte=0&ext=0 

Not so here. Need way more. Just 5mm so far in November after a partial catch up towards the end of October.

Yes in the 80's when my kids were young I remember one organised display in our local park where we standing with snow on the ground and sub-zero temperatures. 14C at 8pm on the 5th this year!  A lot has changed in 40 years and it is now just a vague hope rather than a real chance and that applies to the depths of winter as well!

Was that an isolated model or the ensembles? That's the reality in the current ensembles. No sign whatsoever of snow and cold in the south in the next in 10 days although some colder runs after that but also milder in the spaghetti. Even the cold runs wouldn't bring snow to the south in November.

As I posted earlier, there was one run in the ensemble that brought lying snow in the south in about 10 days.  Just shows it’s still possible if everything falls into place.

That is true Gandalf, but the odds are longer - it has to be right on the money. The BBC said we are averaging 3 weeks less frosts per year than 50 years ago. that feels about right, but snow was always a rare commodity, but now that same ratio makes it more exceptional if and when it happens. Perhaps that should serve to heighten interest in Synoptics like this modelled today. I for one think having so many background factors aligned will increase the chances of the ducks aligning perfectly - as you correctly say is still possible.  Every snow and cold event should be savoured like a rerun of Dads army on UK gold!! LOL 

Yes, exactly; increasingly all the pieces have to fall the right way.  There’s less cold air and what there is also gets modified more coming over the warmer seas. 

As I commented in another thread, here we are about to enter the second week of November and there’s been not a sniff of an air frost, the grass and weeds are still growing (cut the lawns on Wednesday), some summer plants are still flowering, such as the dahlias.

I had been wondering how things were going rainfall wise in Eastern and Southern England. When we returned from our holiday in Hampshire in August, drought was setting in here too. But it's been wet since then, the drought's long finished here. We've had over 50mm this last week. Not sure when my 2 young lads will have a football match again(this weekend's matches postponed as pitches are getting waterlogged, partly due to overuse of the pitches admittedly). We're quite close geographically but seemingly a long way away climatically.

I've been keeping a vague eye on the ens, principally the EPS and there's hints of a cooler interlude later in the month but IMO there's never been more than a minority of colder runs. 

It's a bit early to get excited down here anyway but unless the signal for Greenie (ish) blocking strengthens and it transitions to a Scandi HP I'd say cold for Northern hills with some snow down to lower levels there, uncertain in the South with a greater chance of chilly and wet with the odd frost in the long term, mild and damp before then.

The lawn growth is relentless, and the herbaceous plants especially are having a second wind, quite recovered from the summer drought. Roses are re-budding and flowering, and yes Dahlias, and salvias still doing their thing, so much so that I managed to fill many vases of garden flowers for a visit recently from old friends.  The underlying aquifers still remain very depleted but the moisture, and warmth are ideal for plant growth. Autumn and spring are now the key growing months, the mid summer is becoming too hot and dry for many stalwarts of the British garden, including a healthy green lawn.  I agree that cold air direct hits - are still likely to be modified by Super warm seas, and elevation combined with evaporative cooling are increasingly necessary for even transient snow - especially non-slushy and sleety snow that settles, even for a short time. Fat chance at 28m ASL, but the areas south of Newmarket across to Cherbourg in Suffolk between 300 and 400 ft and your way too, are far more likely to get snow than lowland areas of Norfolk and Suffolk, surrounded as we are with the warmed North Sea.

I’d say mild for the next 6 or 7 days in the north and 8 to 9 in the south, then something chillier, however the details at that range are uncertain. There could also be quite a bit of rain around within the next ten day period too.

Yes, re-GFS and its burst of cyclogenesis as the cold plunge interacts with the mild air, but my first thought was “it’s GFS overplaying it again”.  We’ll see as the pattern evolves: as usual it won’t end up like that.

Quite a temperature gradient  across the country on Thursday.

As mentioned earlier, it looks like it will continue to be mild for around 6 days in the north and 8 or 9 in the south before chillier conditions seem more likely.

In fact I still have unprotected outdoor tomato plants with tomatoes still turning red. I've had them this late in the greenhouse before but not sure still turning red on outdoor plants.

Yes, so we do, much to my amazement.  The process of turning red is now inevitably very slow, but it’s extraordinary they’re still surviving as we approach mid-November.   I think, looking at the charts, they might have to be dug up by next weekend.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/sky-eye-gallery.aspx?id=20241119083414_20241119 

The GEFS 06Z update is interesting, but I wouldn't be putting my house on a significant cold spell. it could happen, but things look very delicately balanced, especially in the south. The odds are better farther north.