FAX – Current set up shows complex LP west of Scotland 972mb throwing multiple fronts across the country bringing bands of rain or showers west to east. The fronts link to new LP in Biscay on Wednesday 5th, bringing mild air from long way south. LPs remain in control through Thursday and Friday – the LP west of Scotland remains throughout filling to 992mb on Friday. Still plenty of fronts, but at least it will be mild rain! LP moves slowly around coast of Newfoundland 961mb, but no influence yet on UK area.

GFS – matches the FAX for the rest of this week – low pressure dominated, with mild southerly winds – 12C to 15C north to south, and regular rain bands – almost every day – keep your coats ready. Pressure rises a little by Sunday 9th , the Newfoundland LP (now 990mb) remains largely in place, but pressure gradient over the UK is small at around 1015mb, some rain being shown, but light. Pressure rises through to 12th, with HP 1035 over Norway, still mild southerlies. New dartboard low off the south of Greenland 940mb, but stationary. 2m temps starting to fall – single figure day time max with below zero overnight. By Sunday 16th the Norway HP slopes south east into the continent and new HP cell from the Azores follows it to become established right over the UK at 1035mb by 18th.

ECM shows good agreement with GFS out to 240Hrs with Scandy-shaped High over Scandy at 1030mb and LP off Portugal 1000mb and another off Newfoundland at 995mb. Between these is the Azores HP 1020 and looking ready to move in once Scandy high has dropped into the continent.

GEFS ensembles show very mild to 7th Nov, +6/+7 over 30 Yr mean, then a smooth decline to just one or two degree over the mean. Noticeably good agreement for this out to 12/13th Nov, then some spaghetti gets in the system and there’s as much dipping and peaking going on as there is at a blind-folded Greek supper. The odd one or two show up on the snow rows (more in the north) from time to time and there are precipitation peaks along the way. Nothing appears very dramatic though.

ECM AIFS London, maxima holding at around 15C through to 9th/10th, then dropping into single figures in somewhat of an agreement with the main models. Only occasional small amounts of rain during the period. Glasgow, same maxima as for London, even through to 11th at around 7C or 8C – colder overnight. Rain amounts dropping to zero after 11th across the UK.

Happy weather watching.

A very well done and thanks for this. Very informative. You've done well.  🙂🙂🙂

Now looking like more of the same with the mild but mostly cloudy southerly/south east airflow thing for at least the next week. Just hope rainfall remain on the scant side at least to keep the dampness at bay, I think those living at the western portion of the British Isles must already be wishing for a break in the rain by now.

ECM has similar, with the boundary up towards Scotland... could be something emerging

Indeed, and things a lot quieter and less smoky as well.  I remember when we got frosts in October. Now that seems another thing for the archives.

Odds are no frost until mid December? Shocking 

I'm not sure what model output this is based on? I hadn't looked at the models for a while but this morning I saw cold northeasterlies modelled and snow even for the south. I thought this thread might have some excitement regarding cold but instead the talk is all of mildness and blowtorches?

This comment is based on nothing than my own gut feeling, but I am wondering if when the weather changes which it will do at some point, it could be quite a notable change. There have been fairly consistent suggestions from the models in recent days of something colder from or after mid month and the current mildness won't last forever.

Yes the latest GFS shows quite a cold North-Easterly developing around the 20th which has some support from the ensembles, and if this came off I would at least expect the first frosts. However I think it's very difficult to get excited about any prospects regarding cold weather in the modern-era climate, certainly outside the core Winter season.

It's far easier and more reliable just to assume it will be endless mild South-Westerlies and to ramp this up as being something exceptional. However on that note, I don't feel the mild spell has been all that exceptional, and I don't think any records have been broken? We can after all get these kind of temperatures (16-17c) in December nevermind early November.

A number of overnight mins have been broken in recent days. However, it's the anomaly for the month to date and the projections to mid month which are extraordinary. 

Not these days...

But for those of us, um, getting old, we remember November as a month when we saw frost and quite often snow. I remember (Ok, I'm on Dartmoor where (by the by)  it's 13C today...) cars getting stuck in snow that lasted for several days, and -5C frost, in a 1970s mid November (72 or 3 I think).

GFS 06z shows the typical modern winter spoiler low pressure preventing the cold plunge from making it. Control is better but we all know its never going to happen. Maybe the Jocks will get something

The wind has made it feel colder than it really is, especially in draughty house like mine, the heat doesnt retain well. 

FAX - the current dominant LP now west of Ireland 997 mb is filling but still has complex set of accompanying cold and occluded fronts over the north and west of the UK. This set up keeps a cloudy mild set of winds from the south from the present out to Monday 10th (end of the FAX run), with slow moving sequence of LPs to the west 994mb northwest, 1004mb southwest, but still bringing cloudy showery weather from the south; perhaps dryer, brighter days the further east you are and probably double figure highs across the board for the next week, even north of the Great Glen.

GFS agrees and carries on to Thursday 13th with most of the UK back into the yellows and oranges on the 500 hPa forecast charts – crazy overnight lows of +10C from the central belt down to the south coast! (How high was your CET guess for November?); day maxes of +10C to +15C, north to south. Showery rain on most days mostly in the north west. Greenland HP 1035 showing its hand; LP mid Atlantic 995mb; HP Bulgaria-ish 1025mb; LP Finland 1000mb – nothing very dramatic.

Later in the run, the LP from the Atlantic moves across the UK during 14th/15th with two centres 990mb over Denmark and 995mb over Waterford in Ireland. The large spread brings cooler/colder air from Scandy out of the Northeast. New Azores HP 1025mb provides for a dramatic ‘thrust’ to join with the Greenland/Iceland hp 1035mb, setting up a significant air transfer from the north 16th/17th. Precipitation types now showing snow on the upper half of that southern Ireland low 990mb which is drifting southeast to Biscay – snow showing from mid-Wales to the Wash northwards. HP remains in mid Atlantic 1030mb drifting eastwards around the top of Scotland to Norway by 21st. The Biscay LP stays in situ 1005mb giving a significant easterly set up that remains to the end of the run 22nd. Day maxes 1C in the north to 8C in the south, CET area mostly 4C/5C. Night mins -4C Highlands, +4C Midlands (still +11 on the tip of Cornwall).

ECM largely similar with the Ireland LP 990mb in situ to 13th HP away over east Europe; Greenie HP 1025 starting to build. Also agrees with mid-Atlantic HP 1025mb and LP Iberia and Finland 995mb at the end of its run Sunday 16th Nov.

GEFS generally mild for the first week – out to 13th at least, with a noticeable drop down to the 30 year mean (which does get to zero at 850hPa temp from 17th). The forecast ensemble average doesn’t quite make it below the mean for the southern half of the UK, but there are now several perturbations that do go 5-to-10 below the 30 year mean. The precip row has as many spikes as a Great White Shark’s lower jaw, so expect higher instance of rain after 10th. Inverness ensembles now showing 9-11-8 in the snow row for 16th, 17th, 18th November and their forecast average does go below the 30 year mean.

ECMWF AIFS London, maxima holding at around low teens for all of this week some rain, but not really anything to write a post(card) about. Temps dropping in to high single figures by 16th/17th. Glasgow, maxima of low double figures, dropping into single figures from the 11th, but diverging from other main models and staying at low single values (5C, 7C) to the end of the run 21st Nov - no -ve values shown.

An old saying springs to mind – “More runs needed”, but we might be getting ready for the first chase of the season.

Happy watching!

No surprise really, though. That graph has had a similar complexion for most of the year with the purple line well above the black for the foreseeable most of the time. Perhaps we could see Northeasterlies from the 20th but that's way, way out in FI at this stage.

+GW = standard fare in reality

I'm not sure all the background signals necessarily favour a cold Winter do they? I know we have the Easterly QBO, negative IOD and a weak La Nina, but not sure how strong the link is with these and what other background signals you are referring to?

Marco Petagna summarised nicely, see:

https://x.com/Petagna/status/1986570355209900128 

Just shows, we can have massive northern blocking and still we don’t get cold.