FAX - the current dominant LP near Iceland 962 mb is filling but still has enough energy to generate brisk W-lies pushing fronts across Britain. On Sunday, the remains of Melissa arrive to pep it up, and the whole of the N Atlantic becomes a low pressure zone with multiple fronts moving east. Some of this energy gets transferred to the south and there is a trough 987mb in the SW approaches on Wed 5th. At the same time a new LP, deep at 947mb, is starting out across the Atlantic from Newfoundland.
GFS agrees with the above (though the trough on Wed 5th is a minor feature). There is then a long period with LPs from the Atlantic moving towards Britain but being stalled by HP over the N Sea - generally S-ly winds, so mild, drier in the east but no doubt occasional fronts traversing Britain from the south. LPs approach: 960mb S of Iceland Fri 7th, 1000mb SW of Ireland Mon 10th, 1000mb Cornwall Thu 13th. The last of these runs S-wards into Biscay for a brief shot of fine weather over Britain before returning Mon 17th. Pressure remains high over the Baltic typically 1030mb throughout, briefly ridging to Britain Sat 15th.
ECM agrees but makes more of the LP Mon 10th which runs NE-wards to Scotland instead of filling.
GEFS generally cool for this weekend, very mild at the beginning of next week, then mean temp near norm out to Mon 17th with fairly good ens agreement. The SE stays mainly dry, the SW has periods of rain every other day from Wed 5th, the NE has rain around Wed 5th and perhaps a few days after then mostly dry, the NW also has rain Wed 5th but takes longer to dry up afterwards
AIFS London, maxima holding at around 15C for all of next week (i.e. for longer than GFS), but at 10C this weekend and steadily dropping to that figure after Fri 7th, rain Sat 1st, occasional small amounts after that. Edinburgh, maxima as for London, though a more gradual decline after the 7th, rain also Sat 1st but also substantial amounts Mon/Tue 3rd/4th and Mon 10th.
I will be away travelling for the next fortnight with only the smart phone so I shan't have time to do leisurely reviews on the laptop, perhaps just the occasional comment from time to time. Resuming Sun 16th but don't be shy to fill in with your comments.
War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce
Chichester 12m asl