The Weather Outlook

Remove ads from site

The Beast from the East
25 October 2025 19:51:01
Surprised this is not getting any media coverage. when hurricanes approach America, we get days of news coverage. There  are probably more Jamaicans over here than in Jamaica and yet barely nothing. 
Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Quantum
26 October 2025 06:36:08
Automated ADT spitting out a raw T number of 7.4 (category 5). The adjusted one is far lower, but this may be because the storm is rapidly intensifying. Basically, this could already be almost cat5.

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

+1
doctormog
26 October 2025 07:32:03
It looks like Jamaica is really going to bear the brunt of this hurricane, both in terms of winds but also intense rainfall. Haiti will also, given its infrastructure, probably be badly affected. 

The most worrying thing for Jamaca is the combination of the intensity of the winds and rainfall combined with the prolonged nature of the event as it passes over the country. It may be Cat 5 on landfall but even if it’s not it still looks devastating.

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

The Beast from the East
26 October 2025 10:30:42
latest NHC advisory is chilling.  Imagine the hysteria if this was hitting Florida

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/260856.shtml 

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

The Beast from the East
26 October 2025 10:32:18
she is a beauty though

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/floater.php?stormid=AL132025 

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Quantum
26 October 2025 20:01:30
So it topped out at a cat4 rather than a cat5 however I reckon that was largelly due to it starting an eyewall replacement cycle which has temporarily halted intensification. It has now completed so will start to reintensify. With the inflow channel to the SE and outflow to the NW the land interaction will do very little to affect the storm until the eyewall makes landfall. So expect no weakening until then, if anything the topography could concentrate the inner core of the storm and make it even more intense (albeit smaller). 

I don't wish to use hyperbole, but this could be one of the most cataclysmic storms for a generation. It will be a cat4 or cat5 for a prolongued period of time for Jamacia; I expect possibly unprecedented devastation from this.

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Gandalf The White
26 October 2025 21:32:23

So it topped out at a cat4 rather than a cat5 however I reckon that was largelly due to it starting an eyewall replacement cycle which has temporarily halted intensification. It has now completed so will start to reintensify. With the inflow channel to the SE and outflow to the NW the land interaction will do very little to affect the storm until the eyewall makes landfall. So expect no weakening until then, if anything the topography could concentrate the inner core of the storm and make it even more intense (albeit smaller). 

I don't wish to use hyperbole, but this could be one of the most cataclysmic storms for a generation. It will be a cat4 or cat5 for a prolongued period of time for Jamacia; I expect possibly unprecedented devastation from this.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

I feel nothing but sadness for what the people of Jamaica, and elsewhere, are about to suffer.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Gandalf The White
26 October 2025 22:28:00
Latest update from NOAA

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/262100.shtml? 

Melissa has strengthened again and looks to have reached Cat 5.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



nsrobins
26 October 2025 22:35:23

Latest update from NOAA

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/262100.shtml? 

Melissa has strengthened again and looks to have reached Cat 5.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Technically (5pm EDT update) it’s still short of Cat 5 (157mph) but given the trend and overwhelming model support for further strengthening it’s probably a Cat 5 now or will be shortly. 

Catastrophic impacts to Jamaica starting tomorrow.

Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
27 October 2025 06:49:51
I’m hoping this is less intense by landfall, for the sake of those islanders.  Am I wrong to think it’s quite late in the season for hurricanes?  We’re on a TransAtlantic cruise in a couple of weeks, sailing to the Caribbean and I’m getting a bit jittery.  
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.

Roger Parsons
27 October 2025 07:03:58

I’m hoping this is less intense by landfall, for the sake of those islanders.  Am I wrong to think it’s quite late in the season for hurricanes?  We’re on a TransAtlantic cruise in a couple of weeks, sailing to the Caribbean and I’m getting a bit jittery.  

Originally Posted by: Caz 

The old Hurricane saying ended "October all over!" I recall [1960s] going through a hurricaine at sea off Puerto Rico on SS Antilles. They had to set ropes across rooms for people to hold on to. Everything had to be secured. Even plates on tables.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SS_Antilles 

RogerP

West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire

Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.

William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830

+2
nsrobins
27 October 2025 07:43:45
RECON in Melissa again now. Prov. central pressure 919.8mb with a surface wind of 180mph (TBC). 

Melissa will be a Cat 5 at next advisory (10am BST) I would think. 

Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

+1
Gandalf The White
27 October 2025 08:47:16

I’m hoping this is less intense by landfall, for the sake of those islanders.  Am I wrong to think it’s quite late in the season for hurricanes?  We’re on a TransAtlantic cruise in a couple of weeks, sailing to the Caribbean and I’m getting a bit jittery.  

Originally Posted by: Caz 

The hurricane season can run through into December, but major ones are rare, I think, that late.  It takes a long while for the ocean heat to dissipate, made worse by the warming trend.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



+1
Quantum
27 October 2025 09:35:39
ADT has it as a T8.0 storm now which is a bonkers implied MSLP of 890mb and wind speed of 196mph. We know that the wind speeds and pressures aren't as intense as this, since the satellite presentation seems to be unusually good compared to the actual intensity. Even so, it shows the storm is continuing to intensify. 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Gandalf The White
27 October 2025 10:46:52

ADT has it as a T8.0 storm now which is a bonkers implied MSLP of 890mb and wind speed of 196mph. We know that the wind speeds and pressures aren't as intense as this, since the satellite presentation seems to be unusually good compared to the actual intensity. Even so, it shows the storm is continuing to intensify. 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Latest NOAA update as of 5am EDT: now a Cat 5 and with the potential of further strengthening.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/262100.shtml? 

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Roger Parsons
27 October 2025 10:58:44
Hurricane Melissa Jamaica LIVE Multi Camera Coverage

RogerP

West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire

Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.

William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830

Roger Parsons
27 October 2025 11:00:16
Hurricane Melissa Jamaica LIVE Multi Camera Coverage

RogerP

West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire

Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.

William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830

+1
Quantum
27 October 2025 13:43:50
I think this has a real shot of being the strongest ever atlantic TC. I see no reason this can not continue to intensify up until landfall. And a land interaction should disrupt the outercore of the storm and make eyewall replacement cycles less likely to stop the intensification. 
25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Roger Parsons
27 October 2025 17:30:12
Not sounding good at all!!!!

"Hurricane Melissa, which early on Monday was upgraded to a category five storm - the maximum strength - is expected to make landfall in the early hours of Tuesday.

The authorities fear that Melissa, which has already been blamed for the deaths of four people on the island of Hispaniola, could become the strongest hurricane ever to hit Jamaica.

Meteorologists warn that Melissa's slow pace means it is set to dump torrential rain on affected areas for longer, increasing the risk of deadly flooding and landslides.

Jamaica in path of 'life-threatening' category five Hurricane Melissa

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2dr0z57nygo 

RogerP

West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire

Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.

William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830

The Beast from the East
27 October 2025 17:41:14

I think this has a real shot of being the strongest ever atlantic TC. I see no reason this can not continue to intensify up until landfall. And a land interaction should disrupt the outercore of the storm and make eyewall replacement cycles less likely to stop the intensification. 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

live satellite suggests she is going through eye wall replacement now. so should weaken in the short term. 

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Quantum
27 October 2025 17:55:41

live satellite suggests she is going through eye wall replacement now. so should weaken in the short term. 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

I really need to check the radar but it keeps going down, the problem with the satellite is that everything is covered by the high cloud so its hard to tell.

Anyway as it starts to get near Jamacia the topography may actually prevent further ERCs and help it to intensify. 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

picturesareme
27 October 2025 18:47:47
175mph sustained winds 😮 She's a beast.
Quantum
27 October 2025 22:55:43
New recon, and its come as it looks like Melissa has strengthened further.

We'll be below 900mb I'm sure, if there was a Cat6 then we'd be at that threshold now.

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Quantum
27 October 2025 23:22:13
Some explosive cell type convection has just appeared on the inner western eyewall with lightning going crazy and cloudtops rapidly cooling. 

Raw ADT has shot back up to T8.1 and we have some recon passes to see what's going on this time.

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

The Beast from the East
28 October 2025 02:08:29

Some explosive cell type convection has just appeared on the inner western eyewall with lightning going crazy and cloudtops rapidly cooling. 

Raw ADT has shot back up to T8.1 and we have some recon passes to see what's going on this time.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

As you said before, this could well be a record breaker for Atlantic storm.  I think Pacific has had stronger.  But either way its going to be catastrophic damage for a poor country like Jamaica.  I havent seen the words "total structural failure" used in NHC updates before.  In the blue mountains where all the coffee is grown, its going to be devastating for farmers. 

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Remove ads from site