No matter how you look at it, the fact is that colder-than-average months have been tough to come by lately, even compared to the recent 1991-2020 average. I've pasted in the output from the TWO tracker below to illustrate.

Over to you! 

Always the hope... until reality sets in around February

Even in today's climate, this still doesn't necessarily mean that we won't get a cold winter but the chances of that happening are now very slim indeed and we even saw that back in February when we had a spell of easterlies which were actually still quite mild here whereas in the past, such a setup would have been virtually guaranteed to bring in a lot of bitterly cold air along with a lot of snow to these parts.

In addition to that, it's not all that long ago since a 20+°C maximum in the winter would have been unthinkable here in the UK as that is something which we tend to think of as only happening in the summer, the early autumn and the late spring. Yet, that is exactly what happened in February 2019 and with ongoing climate change, that is probably going to become more common in the longer term just like 40+°C maximums in the summer. Because of that, it wouldn't even surprise me if the overall interest in any coming winter in the longer term was related to the odds of getting a 20+°C maximum somewhere in the UK in that period, rather than whether or not it was actually going to be a cold winter.

One thing which should be in our favour for that is that the coming winter will be an easterly QBO winter but in the last two easterly QBO winters, that hasn't been of any help to us whatsoever.

As a result, I'm struggling to find any enthusiasm whatsoever for the coming winter in terms of any actual cold weather.

I'm kind of hoping that the abundance of fruits, nuts and berries in the hedgerows as well as acorns on some oak trees here, rumoured to be more than ever seen (for a good while at least), if some old weather lore rings true, may (or may not!) be an indication of an approaching harsh winter. It's probably far from accurate, time will tell. It would make my winter if we get more than a thin covering of snow this year and is quite possible and easier here, at least, to possibly get cut off if we got a real dumping, being out in the Styx. 

Yes, this early autumn time period does always start just a thought or two towards whether there will be a cold/cool/mild winter. The old weather lore aspects might work - the extra fruit/berries on trees  and a colder winter are reputed to have the same precursors (it's not a straight cause and effect from berries to snow - both might be based on the same climate effects much earlier in the year. We shall see. If the equally (un-)reliable  summer-thunder = winter-snow equation works out, we shall all be in for a few treats!

A below average month over Dec, Jan or Feb should lead to some snow somewhere - and it is the 'somewhere' part that is always the bone of contention. In the deep mid-Wiltshire where I am, we do get some snow - at least one day of falling snow over the winter. Other more favoured location with height and away from the coast would often do better. The easterly component is often a necessary ingredient, with a southerly tracking low and an Icelandic high all useful in the mix. Getting them all together at the right time, in the right sequence is like asking Eric Morecambe to give the forecast.

I shall be waiting for the first #1 in the snow row on the GFS Ens - always worthy of a beer, except when its on the 0600. Good luck all - happy hunting. Cheers.

There is some sort of loose correlation between the solar cycle and Northern European winter weather, with solar minima being associated with more high latitude blocking and solar maxima with milder, changeable winters.   Sadly we are slap bang in the middle of the current solar maximum.  

Obviously that doesn’t rule out cold weather but I would favour milder weather dominating again, particularly with the underlying warming signature of climate change.

The next minimum is predicted to be towards the end of this decade, with a roughly 11-year cycle.

This September so far feels very different to recent ones. More 'autumny' and so soon. My hunch is for a wilder and wetter winter than more recent ones, though likely the Azores high and its offshoots never far away. 

Despite the heatwaves and forecasts of prolonged heat this summer, the hot spells were fairly brief compared to recent summers...Still time to change but this September seems like late October in recent seasons.I predict a more central European trough set up this winter possibly a 2017 2018 winter without the beast.Lot of cold rain and great for hill snow lovers

I've read that too but I think a much more likely explanation for the abundance of fruit, nuts and berries is the dry Spring which allowed blossom to be pollinated. 

I'm a bit concerned with the comparisons I keep reading about SST's in the Pacific between now and the Winter of 2013/14. American commentators are getting excited because Eastern US had a very cold Winter then, and of course here it was very mild.

Clearly on the money Brian - I predict something sweeping down from the north on, oh let's say, Boxing day...

Down here I'd say the writing's on the wall if nothing's showing by mid-January - by the middle of February it's really too late unless by a fluke -15s at 850 get involved (as they did, briefly, in the 2018 "Beast"). 

I'd like to think that the record-breaking hot summer we've endured, plus the prolonged dry spells with high pressure dominating will lead to something similar in winter - in the absence of snow I'd enjoy a week of hard frost, for example, and it really shouldn't be too much to ask that a ridge or high plonks itself over the UK for a week. 

As for snow, it's now 5 years since there was even a dusting on the ground at 9 AM, which is when I record snowfall. I'll not get my hopes up of any this year, and though I'd love to see a textbook white Christmas just the once before I die, I doubt I ever will - the last one here was in 1970, back when we still used to get Scandinavian Highs. 

Those highs might be all but extinct now, but as others have said I'm sure the usual "polar vortex" cold plunge in the States will happen with the usual firing up of the jet afterwards. There's a reason the folks in Alaska are quite concerned about climate change (having seen it happening before their eyes), while the average American in the lower 48 couldn't care less - they still get their snow every year!

Same here.  I dont remember 1981, but apparently there was snow here.  1995 and 96 were close calls.  

My mum and dad were apparently at a disco on that night - I guess I must have been with my nan or gran!

There was snow on Christmas Eve, but it stopped before midnight and left a covering for Christmas Day. There have been a few close calls, a few technical White Christmases in some areas, including one here (i.e. a flake or two of sleet and/or snow, but nowhere near enough to settle) and a couple of times when some earlier snow survived into Christmas Day. But the big one, i.e. snow falling and settling, has proved elusive for over 50 years. As you say, 95 and 96 were close - close enough for snow to fall while decorations were up, which looked lovely, but still not on the big day.

I used to fervently hope for a textbook white Christmas. I then used to hope for a few days of snow on the ground, 80s style. These days I'll take even an hour of snow producing slush on the ground, but even that's now a twice-a-decade thing at best! Predicting snow has always been a tough job, but it's become even harder now that the bell-curve has shifted so far to the right (1.5C of warming in just 30 years at Brogdale, for example).

There was an article in 2000 in the Indy about children not knowing what snow was as the century went on, which drew much ridicule at the time. While the premise was way over-hyped, the general trend is clear. Already you get odd looks from youngsters when you mention the regular NE'lies and heavy snow of the 80s... I don't think they believe the ancient 45-year-old when he says 6 inches of snow here wasn't especially noteworthy, and that we used to get drifts of powder snow measured in feet! Just look at all the faff over the 2018 "Beast", which - for 3 days at least - was genuinely like the 80s. 

https://web.archive.org/web/20150502225210/http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html 

David Parker, at the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research in Berkshire, says ultimately, British children could have only virtual experience of snow. Via the internet, they might wonder at polar scenes - or eventually "feel" virtual cold.

Heavy snow will return occasionally, says Dr Viner, but when it does we will be unprepared. "We're really going to get caught out. Snow will probably cause chaos in 20 years time [i.e. 2020]," he said.

1996(I think). Went to bed sometime after midnight. Skies were clear and it was freezing. Snow fell overnight, leaving about 1cm of pristine snow cover everywhere, which had frozen by dawn. Beautiful scene (tricky driving conditions!). Most of the snow melted through the day in bright sunshine.

2004. A cold NW'y saw a mix of snow and soft hail showers start early afternoon, quickly leaving a covering. Over the course of about 2 hours, it left a covering of (IIRC) about 5cm's. Sky cleared after the showers and by 7/8pm the snow was frozen and the roads were like ice rinks. The weather had been quite well modelled, and I won on 3 white Xmas bets. Snow was I think washed away on Boxing Day when milder air moved in.

Had thick snow lying on the ground on Xmas Day in 81, 09 and 10 (where there was 15-20cm on the ground in these parts, and Xmas Eve especially was a wonderful vibe) but no snow fell here on any of them 

Indeed. Even frosts these days seem unusual. I remember frosts for bonfire night in the 80s and leaves mostly fallen from the trees. Now frosts in November are  rare and leaves stay on until late Nov. 

Schools on the flatter Canary Islands have sometimes arranged a special excursion when there's been a heavy snowfall on Mt. Teide, so the pupils can find out what snow is like. Coach trips from Sussex to Snowdonia coming?

East meets west - Urals holding back winter for now. Currently below -20C in Mongolia and parts of Siberia.

Definitely potential on show at present...

Looks like some moderate snowfall is heading for the Alps next week, especially on the western side. This could be a good start and certainly much better than what we had at this time last year. In fact, the whole ski season last year was pretty mediocre.

This could provide a solid base for the upcoming season above 2,500 meters, and according to the charts, the snow line could drop significantly as the month progresses. Those planning early-season trips to snow-sure resorts will definitely welcome this prospect.

I wonder if this could also signal a change in the weather pattern for the rest of Europe?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce3xynwwx4yo 

Thanks for that - I have been following La Niña reports but that BBC piece is something different and worth watching.

Try this one! 😁

Europe long-range weather forecast for winter 2025-26

https://www.onthesnow.co.uk/news/long-range-weather-forecast-for-europe/ 

So maybe Trump has done the right thing in cancelling the shipping fuel agreement (#2284, Environment thread). Did he realise?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3vnl0yxg53o