GFS Op 0z; minimises the fronts shown on FAX by keeping pressure high over most of Britain eventually covering the whole country 1030mb Sat 11th. This drifts a little north (some NE-lies for S England) but finally collapses under attack from an ex-hurricane W of Ireland which brings up strong S/SW-lies Sat 18th and is still in place Tue 21st.

ECM; similar to GFS but the ex-hurricane stands a bit further off in the Atlantic allowing the HP to persist

GEM; after Sat 11th the HP drifts west, not north, and by Wed 15th there are weak N-lies for E Britain.

GEFS; mild for a day or two around Tue 7th, then the mean stays near norm to Tue 21st but with increasing spread of ens members (in particular op and control cool around 15th but warmer later), Very dry generally, a pulse of rain in the NW on the 7th, and just a few ens members offering some rain after Fri 17th.

AIFS; London, maxima mostly 15-17C to Mon 13th then mostly 13-15C with N/NE-lies, spits and spots of rain but scarcely measurable. Edinburgh, maxima 13-15C to Sat 11th with a little rain at first, also cloudy with little diurnal range; then 13-15C with overnights dropping to 6C on some occasions and dry

GFS Op 0z; the above HP moves across to the Norwegian Sea but continues to direct Britain's weather with mild S/SE-lies for most until Fri 17th when shallow Atlantic LP moves into the Channel 1005mb Sun 19th. This links to LP over N Norway and deepens , bringing in NE-lies for all by Wed 22nd

ECM; the HP above moves towards Iceland rather than Norwegian Sea and by Fri 17th starts to draw in N-lies down the N Sea, but no LP for the south.

GEM; follows GFS

GEFS; after a couple of days mild/warm, mean returns to norm in the S, or a little above in the N, and stays there, quite well supported by ens members. Very dry, but some rain increasingly likely from Sun 19th (plus a little in the far N at first)

AIFS; London, maxima steadily declining from 18C now to 13C Mon 20th, no rain and winds going round E-ly after the first few days. Edinburgh, dipping from 15C now to 12-14C from Sun 12th, a few spots of  rain early and some drizzle around 16th, E-lies slower to set in.

The charts late yesterday suggested that an ex-hurricane would influence Britain's weather in ten days or so but there's no sign of it this morning

… but this has been ongoing here since last summer (you actually have to go all the way back to Spring 2024 to find our last wetter than average season according to the 1991-2020 averages which is our most recent official average) so if everything really was going to even itself out in the end, it surely would have done so long before now within such a long period of time.

Personally, I’m just sick and tired of seeing virtually bone dry conditions for the vast majority of the time and to me, what we saw recently with Storm Amy was a very welcome relief from that.

GFS Op; the HP drifts on into the Norwegian Sea slowly bringing the winds round to SE-ly but is still the main influence on British weather to Sat 18th. An ex-hurricane 970mb then approaches SW Ireland  Mon 20th and although its centre moves N-wards clear of land, it projects a broad trough of LP across to Scandinavia Tue 21st. HP then re-appears S of Iceland with wind becoming N/NE-ly.

ECM; agrees with GFS

GEM; agrees with GFS though there appears to be another ex-hurricane Mon 13th heading for Greenland, which GFS treats as filling up. In neither case does it affect Britain

GEFS;  mean temps back to norm tomorrow, staying a little above in S, but 3 or 4C above in Scotland for the first week, to Thu 23rd with quite good ens support, dry until Sun 19th then rain in an increasing number of runs

AIFS; London, maxima around 15C to Sat 18th then cooler, a cloudy period around Mon 13th with high night time maxima, virtually dry throughout. Edinburgh, similar except cloudy throughout and a big drop in temp Tue21st, maxima 7C

Nice bit of cold pooling to the north and east gfs 384 12z run...be nice to have a November 1980...falling accumulating snow in Hastings on Nov 5th off a short sea track easterly...turned to rain sleet the next day as winds veered NE...

FAX for this week has HP growing from the SW to cover Britain 1034mb Sat 11th, while weak fronts invade the HP area but probably generating no more than cloud and a bit of drizzle.

GFS OP 0z; the HP above continues over Britain to Sat 18th, moving towards Scotland, with E-lies and later SE-lies for England. LP then slowly approaches from the SW and by  Wed 22nd has linked to LP over Scandinavia forming a broad trough across Britain , Then by Fri 24th some very cold air from the NE moves in. TS Jerry (see Hurricane thread) fades out in mid-Atlantic Tue 14th with minimal effect on Britain.

ECM & GEM; Like GFS - but TS Jerry is deeper however just increases the strength of the SE-lies in the middle of next week.

GEFS; temps a few degrees above norm to Tue 14th then mean near norm, quite well supported by ens members. Dry to Sat 18th then rain appearing in an increasing in several (but not all) runs. A few cold outliers at the end but not as much as implied on the GFS op charts.

AIFS; London, maxima mostly around 15C, cooler after Mon 20th, rain only in trace amounts. Edinburgh, maxima decreasing steadily from 15C now to 10C in a fortnight's time, also rain only in trace amounts and that mostly in the next couple of days.

GFS Op 0z; keeps the HP (as above) in place a few days longer and then begins to slide it SE-wards to the N Sea 1025mb Fri 17th as an ex-TS approaches Ireland 965mb (probably not ex-hurricane Jerry - NHC shows this one as a separate development). This runs N-wards offshore and fills, merely increasing the strength of S-ly winds for a while (yesterday they were predicted SE-ly), to be followed by another disturbance, this time probably ex-Jerry and they combine 975mb Rockall Tue 21st, projecting a trough south to the Channel Thu 23rd. The Atlantic circulation then subsides into gentle W-lies.

ECM; similar to GFS but with less extremes of pressure - the ex-TS Fri 13th is only 985mb and ex-Jerry is looking rather flabby near Newfoundland

GEM; keeps the HP over Scotland for longer, to Sun 19th, with any disturbances well out on the Atlantic. As a consequence winds are SE-ly rather than S-ly by Sun 19th.

GEFS; mild for a few days (in the north for longer), then mean and majority of ensemble members near or a little above norm but a few cold outliers. Dry for a time, increasing chances of rain from Sun 19th. 

AIFS; London, maxima either side of 15C, a little cooler after Sun 19th and rain at that time. Edinburgh, maxima decreasing for ca 15C to ca 12C over the next ten days, rather cloudy with little diurnal range and rain also from 19th

The NE-lies shown yesterday at the end of the GFS run have been cancelled, to the embarrassment of tabloid writers (if they know what embarrassment is) who had picked it up and were predicting deep snow for the NE from the 19th.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/Posts/t24393-Model-output-breakout-thread 

GFS Op 0z; the HP continues as the dominant factor for Britain until about Sun 19th when it begins to sink S-wards, followed by shallow LP from Iceland which is centred NE England 985mb Thu 23rd  This moves away E-wards, deepening with a day or two of NE-lies before a more active depression approaches Donegal 975mb Sun 26th.

ECM; like GFS but moves the HP off E-wards Sun 19th.

GEM; like GFS but slower to move the HP S-wards after Sun 19th - still significant at end of run Mon 20th.

GEFS; mean temp slowly drops to norm and stays there through to Sun 26th, but from 17th in the S this disguises a split between one set of mild ens members led by the op run and a second set of cool members led by the control run, very few ens members close to mean. In Scotland there is a random spread of temps from ens members. Dry generally  until Sun 19th, then rain increasingly likely though still not certain. 

AIFS; London, maxima mostly close to 15C, often cloudy, rain Thu 23rd. Edinburgh, maxima dropping from 15C to about 10C Thu 16th before rising again, rain Wed 22nd and Fri 24th, dry until then.

GFS 12z still on board, with settled, high pressure-dominated weather through the entire run (nicely positioned for MBY, too)

ECM breaks it down into Atlantic crap by Mon 20th

ECM AI is even worse, steaming in low pressure by Sat 18th

Good.

There was a wildfire on Dartmoor last night. Like it or not, we need rain.

There is now a clear trend for the high to sink into Europe allowing Atlantic domination.  Just hope we can avoid big storms. 

GFS begins to move the HP away to the east Sat 18th with trough from the north moving down the N Sea Wed 15th with N-lies for the E Coast. Pressure remains high over Ireland and by Sat 25th HP is back to cover Britain 1025mb. In the final chart, LP from the south is trying to crack our semi-permanent high 1015mb N Spain. No sign of significant rain-bearing systems.

ECM also waits to Sat 18th before moving the HP E-wards but then introduces a small LP 990mb Orkney with trough extending S-wards Mon 20th, heralding a return to general W-lies.

GEM moves the HP more to the south than the above and by Mon 20th there is a broad band of W-lies

GEFS mean temp soon descending to mean and staying there though independently op & control have major cold plunges 23rd and 26th respectively. Contrary to parent GFS, rain in moderate amounts in many ens members from Sun 19th (and quite a lot of temp spread from that date)

AIFS; London, maxima 15C or a little below to Sun 19th, then a little warmer with moderate rain Mon 20th and Wed 22nd, finishing with noticeably colder (10C on Sat 25th). Edinburgh, maxima dropping to a level of about 10C from Wed 15th. Rain as for London, Mon 20th and (minor diff) Thu 23rd; and the dip in temp after.

It's not all that long ago since the models were going for this high to go to Scandy and then set up an easterly here in the UK.

This type of thing where a Scandy high and a resulting easterly appears on the model output only for that to never actually come off tends to be quite common in the winter so with the winter now just around the corner, perhaps the models are now already getting in a bit of practise for that.

Indeed, the powered up jetsream and warming oceans  have screwed us over.  You would think the models would factor this in now. 

A few nuanced runs but ultimately consistent enough that I booked time off next week to get my deck built. 

They do: they’re mathematical models of the atmosphere and oceans and run on the laws of physics.  More warmth means more energy, more moisture in the atmosphere.

The warming oceans, if anything, is making the jet stream less powerful. Less thermal contrast between north and south. 

Listened to a great podcast the other day about how early snow cover in parts of Sibera at the moment is helping to set up a powerful jet in the western Pacific, which is likely to have some impact in western North America over the coming weeks. Perhaps some aftershocks for this part of the world towards the end of the month and into November? Worth keeping an eye on perhaps. 

What we had in September was superior with lot of sunshine and being above average despite being low pressure dominated month only this month failed to do that thanks to the dirty HP that normally don't give gloom in early October turn out to be horrible month and very dull.  Need a change to see the sun again, a northerly blasts, first frosts etc that we should be expecting in October.

GFS - agrees with Fax but after 15th slims the HP down and moves it eastwards as an Atlantic LP moves in to Cornwall 990mb Sun 19th. This moves into N France Tue 21st with NE-lies behind it until these are cut off by further HP in the form of a weak NW - SE ridge still present Tue 28th, though in the meantime troughs try to access S England  from the west Thu 23rd and Sun 26th.

ECM - like GFS at first but no NE-lies as a large but shallow area of LP sets up in mid-Atlantic, and once the smaller LP is out of the way in France, produces a broad wind field of S/SW-lies.

GEM - like GFS at first but the LP from Cornwall runs NE-wards and deepens 970mb northern N Sea with N-ly gales for E Scotland and NE England  Wed 22nd (and cool/cold for the rest of Britain)

GEFS - mean temps declining to norm (soon in S, more slowly in N) and continuing to drift downwards to Tue 28th when a little below norm, with op & control leading the fashion for colder ens members. Moderate rain in most runs anywhere from Sun 19th but heavy in SW.

AIFS - London, maxima around 15C to Tue 26th, some rain at intervals from Sun 19th onwards. Edinburgh, maxima around 11C but milder at first and later quite cold (6C) from Sun 26th, rain at intervals from Mon 20th.