Definitely one to watch. GFS is throwing out some nasty weekend synoptics too

Seems that the UKMO was onto it after all, as it was the first to pick out that set up from afar. While there is some wriggle room for some downgrades as the 06z op is at the high end of the pack in terms of wind gusts (the 06z op always seem to show the most deepest dartboard lows over UK in the medium range output), but if it has to turn rough 'n' wild then at least it is likely to be over the weekend putting off the nearby night club drunks from going out. 😂

Yes, well done to UKMO.  GFS now on board.  Looks horrific for the whole country.  lets hope the azores high can push it north a bit and at least spare us down here 

It already has. On the 6z the strongest winds were off the SW tip of Wales with guts here projected to 60mph, the 12z shows the strongest around the IOM with 50mph here.

That's showing 86mph gusts for here and well over 90+ just a bit north of here! Not looking forward to that if it comes off that way!

GFS Op 00z; Picks up the above developments but Saturdays Lp moves through quickly and a ridge of HP follows by Mon 6th albeit with N-lies down the N Sea. The ridge persists and by Sat 11th has transformed into  a large area of HP 1030mb N England. This drifts E-wards and for a time produces mild S-lies from Mon 13th until the Lp waiting on the Atlantic moves in 1000mb Scotland Wed 15th.

ECM; like GFS but less of a ridge of HP as the Hp is 'flattened' across S Britain with general W-lies

GEFS; temps at or above norm until Sat 4th when heavy rain and a drop in temp until Tue 7th, when milder again for a few days before mean returns to norm in the middle of a spread of ens members, the Op (contrary to above) one of the colder options, Rain after the 4th from time to time, heavier and more persistent in the NW.

AIFS; London, maxima around 17C declining to around 14C over the fortnight, with an intermediate dip and rain on Sat 4th. Edinburgh maxima like London but a few degrees lower, and some additional rain before the 4th

GEMs op this morning probably the pick of the 'worst' options.

Arpege notable just for how much further south it is, so lower wind speeds overall but 60-70 widely over a lot of England and Wales. 

Given trees are still in leaf there's potential for quite widespread disruption.  

Outside of the weekends fun and games it's not looking too bad IMBY for most of the run - occasional rain but nothing overly exciting and a lot of HP about. Looks stereotypically like early autumn in that regard, more unsettled the further NW you head with a gradual move towards more countrywide unsettled weather heading further in to October. 

GFS op 0z agrees with FAX to Sat, but then guides the LP to N Norway with a quicker but restricted rise of pressure behind. This HP in combination with LP near Iceland gives a W-ly flow, a trough in this flow moving across Tue 7th but then settled until Tue 14th when LP drifts down form the N to N England 100mb Wed 15th with colder air behind. Although pressure then rises there is an ex-hurricane waiting on the Atlantic to disrupt proceedings.

ECM similar to GFS, winds more NW-ly than W-ly after the storm clears.

GEM tracks the main LP to S Norway but then instead of  W-lies keeps pressure low in the N Sea with N=lies down the E coast and HP out to the SW at least to Sat11th

GEFS heavy rain Sat 4th with a short dip in temp, mild again around Tue 7th then mean settles to norm with usual ens spread, op run a cool outlier, but overall dry after 4th, except N & NW Scotland, rain in run-up to 4th and more likely around the 7th.

AIFS; London, maxima 15-17C but cooler Sun/Mon 5th/6th, rain Fri 3rd otherwise dry. Edinburgh, maxima around 15C with rain to Sat 4th, then around 13-14C and mostly dry

It's not just Essex which is drought-stricken.

Here in Edinburgh, we have had very little in the way of rainfall in the past week and there is still an ongoing water scarcity situation in the east of Scotland in particular. Indeed, there are a number of areas which are still at significant water scarcity status according to SEPA with NE Scotland bearing the biggest brunt of that, and with those areas even extending as far north as the Orkney Islands.

At the moment, we're seeing some rain in western areas in particular, but these are the areas which had already been getting plenty of rainfall up until now and the big problem here is that even as I write, very little of that rainfall is actually getting through to those eastern areas which badly need that rainfall as a result of the continuing impacts from water scarcity in those areas.

Looking at the latest model output, I was very concerned when I read the AIFS summary at the end of DEW's daily summary as that seems to suggest that we're not likely to get any rain here in Edinburgh over the next few days. That is quite a big downgrade from other recent days which were at least offering some hope of at least some rainfall over that period. As a result, that is very concerning indeed as regards to the overall water scarcity situation because there still doesn't appear to be anything in the latest model output which is even offering any hope of that situation being eased any time soon.

The models may well look towards the possibility of storm weather on around Thursday/Friday with the northern half of the UK being the worst effected areas from that. This would suggest that the northern half of the UK would also get the most rain from that but the big question here as always is whether that rainfall is going to end up being concentrated mostly in the west as has been the case until now, or whether we actually see. a significant portion of that getting through to those parts of the east which badly need it. In this current westerly setup which we now seem to be going into, I would have to say that the omens don't really look all that great in that regard.

Hopefully these weather systems will bring some meaningful rain to the catchments , it’s badly needed. Thankfully it looks like the brunt of this storm is moving up the west coast of Scotland, but a lot of rain is forecast, hopefully they are right this time. 🤞💦

Not what it says -quote - with rain to 4th. Edinburgh AIFS has rain in the next few days but then, agreed, it looks rather dry again

Not what it says -quote - with rain to 4th. Edinburgh AIFS has rain in the next few days but then, agreed, it looks rather dry again

ECM and UKMO this morning not looking too bad, for the south at least. 

Yes it looks to be centred slightly farther north on some of the latest output.

It also continues to move north east whereas a couple of days ago it was showing a track looping south east over the North Sea, maintaining strong winds over much of the UK for another day or so. 

GFS Op 0z; prefers the Norwegian Sea version, after which pressure rises over Britain and winds go round from W-ly to N-ly as HP moves from S of Britain to mid-Atlantic;  by Sun 12th; the HP is near enough for fine and settled weather in the west. This HP collapses (or moves SE-wards, depends on how you interpret the charts), winds go back W-ly and eventually Fri 17th LP has set up 990mb W of Ireland. The jetstream forecast shows that Amy will benefit from a very strong jet stream which however is short-lived. Further ahead the jet around Fri 17th takes a big loop to the S,implying colder weather?

ECM; takes Amy to the Baltic well filled 995mb Mon 6th. After that the rise in pressure is mainly to the Sw so winds tend to be long-fetch NW-lies to Sat 11th

GEM;  like GFS though it adds in an extra trough moving rapidly east Tue 7th, also with the remains of some tropical air, before the HP is established.

GEFS; the perturbations are divided more or less equally as to where Amy ends up. As for the line graphs, heavy rain esp in N Fri 3rd with a dip in temp to 3 or 4C below form, rebounding Tue 7th to as much above. The mean temp then settles near norm and little rainfall in the S to end of forecast Fri 17th while in the N rain continues on and off,  though a significant minority of runs incl op and control are much cooler in the S from Tue 14th with some rain   

AIFS; London, maxima mostly around 15Cm rain on 4th and 16th; Edinburgh, maxima more irregular, mostly 13C but dip on 5th and 16th after rain at those times

GFS Op 00z; Amy fills more quickly and there is more of a pressure rise. By Thu 9th HP 1025mb covers Britain but it retreats first to the west then southwest with winds going round to first N then NW then W by Mon 13th. Eventually Fri 17th LP moves down from Iceland to NE Scotland 980mb extending a trough to the south with a secondary running along the Channel Sat 18th.

ECM; like GFS to Thu 9th but the HP then moves to the NW and from an area just off NW Scotland and continues to be the main influence on British weather to Mon 13th.

GEM; like ECM but extends the HP from NW Britain via a broad ridge reaching into C Europe with SE-lies for England.

GEFS; a drop in temp following storm Amy with an equally quick rise to mild on Tue 7th. Mean temp then follows the norm with fairly good ens agreement though Op & Control are definitely cold after Mon 13th. Rain associated with storm Amy, then dry. Perhaps a little rain in the S in the op run Fri 17th, this more likely and including the few days previous in the NW.

AIFS; London, maxima slowly decreasing from 17C now to 13C Fri 17th, rain now and then dry until a little on Thu 16th. Edinburgh, maxima generally around 13C, rain as London also a little on Tue 7th.

GFS Op 00z; continues on from FAX with a general rise in pressure after Wed;  by Sat 11th HP is centred 1035mb N England. This HP persists but forms a weak ridge NW-SE from Iceland to continental Europe, lasting to Fri 17th when LP moves up from the SW and deepens 965mb Cape Wrath Sun 19th with SW-lies and LP developing near Cornwall. 

ECM; similar to GFS though in the final chart Tue 14th Atlantic LP looks more active

GEFS; also similar to GFS but takes a different view from ECM on the 14th with the ridge of HP moving W-wards into the Atlantic and LP pressing from Scandinavia.

GEFS; cool now, a bump of warmth around Tue 7th, then mean near norm with good ens agreement to Tue 21st. Mainly dry, but with some rain in some runs after Sun 19th in the S, a few days earlier in the N.

AIFS: London, maxima mostly 15-17 C to Sun 12th, then cooler 12-14C; no rain after today in the forecast (i.e. to Sat 18th). Edinburgh, maximum 16C Mon 6th then declines to 12C Tue 14th before rising slowly; some rain to Tue 7th then dry