GFS Op 00z; agrees with FAX. Then on Sun 28th/Mon 29th a shallow trough moves S-wards through the N Sea, only for pressure to rise strongly behind it, 1030mb Scotland by Wed 1st. This HP remains in place (or a little to the east) for the following week with S-ly winds developing. Ex-hurricanes and other Atlantic LPs are held at bay well to the west.

ECM; differs from GFS after Sat 27th as it brings in ex-hurricane Gabrielle 1000mb off Brittany Sun 28th (N Sea still under HP). Gabrielle converts to a broad trough over Britain with its last centre appearing weakly over France Tue 30th. Then the next HP moves in from the west on Wed 1st, converging with GFS again.

GEM; much more like ECM, but no sign of the rise in pressure Wed 1st, instead W-lies set in under the control of LP 980mb Iceland.

GEFS; cool to start with (5 or 6C below norm Tue 23rd), mean temp soon recovering to norm and staying there through to Tue 7th. Very little rain perhaps a little Tue 23rd and Sun 6th in the far S, more likely elsewhere from time to time after Sat 27th

AIFS; London, maxima rising steadily from ca 15C to high teens, trace of rain Mon 29th. Edinburgh maxima generally around 15C, a little rain Mon 29th and after Fri 3rd

no clear consensus on Gabrielle. Azores certainly in firing line, then could be us.  ECM brings it close again.

FAX shows HP covering Britain for the whole of the week to Friday - just a few showery troughs flirting with the far SE at first, and an Atlantic front annoying the far W later. Gabrielle makes an appearance  as a tropical storm with central pressure ca 975mb in the latitude of N Spain midday Friday.

GFS Op 00z; agrees on HP over Britain for this week but drifting east to be centred over the Baltic by the weekend. Gabrielle changes direction and does a loop in the Western Approaches at that time, filling but eventually creating shallow LP over Britain centred Dover 1005mb Tue 30th. The northern Atlantic then wakes up and LPs run past N Scotland (notably 970mb Faeroes Fri 3rd) while pressure is high over France with W-lies in between. The W/SW-ly theme continues to Wed 8th while a new hurricane approaches the Canadian Maritimes.

ECM;  Keeps the broad area of HP from Britain to Scandinavia going to Thu 2nd (end of run) though it's weaker Sat/Sun 27th/28th as Gabrielle runs E-wards into Spain and dies over the Algarve Tue 30th

GEM; shows Gabrielle dissipating in mid Atlantic. Although pressure drops slightly over Britain Sat 27th, this is a combination of LP to N & S of Britain, and by Tue 30th a broad ridge of HP has re-connected with Scandinavia before it drifts S-wards to let the W-lies set in on the 31st.

GEFS; temps back to norm Sat 27th, sooner in the north; dry until then, bits and pieces of rain from then onwards, occasionally heavier in the SW. Op run is a hot outlier for the SE ca. Sat 4th.

AIFS; London, maxima currently 15C slowly rising to 18C by Wed 1st, a cool day with rain Thu 2nd but otherwise virtually no rain. Edinburgh, similar rise but a couple of degrees lower throughout, rain Thu 2nd and Sat 4th, cooler with the rain.

An ex-hurricane creating dissension amongst the models as is often the case.

FAX, for the rest of this week, shows HP dominating the British Isles from a centre in the Baltic, minor showery troughs in the Straits of Dover and Atlantic fronts fringing western coasts. On Saturday the Atlantic front makes erratic progress eastwards backed by a weak trough 1002mb off N Ireland, while Gabrielle has gone extra-tropical but still a major storm 982mb off NW Spain.

GFS Op 00z; Gabrielle moves SE-wards and dies out over the Spain-Portugal border Mon 29th. The passage of the erratic front across Britain shows up as a slight drop in pressure over the weekend, but HP returns from the SW 1025mb SW England Tue 30th persisting over England for a week (and affecting Scotland too, though often strong SW-lies there),  and then moving north to Scotland 1025mbThu 9th. Meanwhile another ex-hurricane approaches from the SW but like Gabrielle turns towards Iberia and dies out off the coast of Portugal Tue 7th.

ECM; like GFS but makes less of  the drop in pressure next weekend.

GEM; also like GFS but takes the second ex-hurricane towards Iceland and still a potent but local storm in mid-north Atlantic 955mb Fri 3rd

GEFS; mean temp rising from slightly below (in the S) or at (in the N) norm in Sep to slightly above for the first week of October (though op & control & several other ens members considerably warmer then), a little rain around Weds 1st and 8th October in some runs, most likely and heaviest in the NW around the 1st

AIFS; London, maxima around 15C but warmer Fri 3rd before lower with significant rain Sun 5th, also a little 'nuisance' rain in the w/b Sun 28th. Edinburgh, similar to London though the drop in temp and rain arrives a day earlier, on Sat 4th

FAX showing a ridge of HP from the Baltic for Britain for the rest of this week, but rather flabby, and allowing a front to wander erratically across from the west on Saturday. Pressure rises behind the front 1027mb Sunday and the front links south to Gabrielle as that makes landfall in NW Spain 1005mb.

GFS Op 0z agrees with FAX. Then the HP from Sunday stays close to the SE but Atlantic LPs generate SW-ly gales for NW Britain esp Thu 2nd. An LP, secondary to the main centre near Iceland, runs across N England 1000mb Sat 4th switching the winds into the W and then NW as it deepens and moves to Scandinavia. Pressure remains high to the SW and is back over Britain for the w/b Mon 6th. Some uncertainty from Fri 10th as a new-ex-hurricane moves NE-wards on the Atlantic but that's a long way off.

ECM minimises the gales next Thursday but then develops a major Atlantic LP out of the remains of yet another hurricane (on GFS this quietly fills in mid-Atlantic), 945mb SW Iceland Sat 4th with light S-lies for Britain, quite different from GFS.

GEM more like ECM, but on Sat 4th that ex-hurricane is N of Iceland allowing HP to remain anchored over S Britain 1030mb, with strong W-lies for Scotland

GEFS in the S shows temps steadily rising from cool now (4C below norm) to mild Sat 4th (4C above norm) before dropping back a little. Rain in a few runs around Mon 29th and in a few more Tue 7th esp in SW but otherwise mainly dry. In the N not quite as cool now; the mild spell is there around the 4th but with much less certainty, a bigger spread of ens members with op and control taking turns as hot and cold outliers. Rain also around the 29th, but then in small amounts from time to time on any day after Sat 4th. 

AIFS: London, maxima 15-17C with quite large diurnal ranges (12C) throughout, a little rain Sun 28th, otherwise virtually dry. Edinburgh, maxima 15C or a little below, rain Sun 28th and Fri 3rd and a little cooler on  those days. Diurnal ranges suppressed w/b Sun 28th.

Being serious. Cute the way GFS went from showing a benign high-pressure orientated set up to a dartboard low pressure over the UK in the 240 hrs range in just two runs. Of course, not a forecast and hope the former doesn't end up trending but knowing our luck, it probably will do given this time of the year. For now, I choose ECM's current output. 

That, of course, is why the latter stages of the GFS output were always called ‘Fantasy Island’.

Lack of rain continues to be a problem here. After a break to the drought for a few days two weeks ago with a total of just 13mm we have gone back to 10 dry days now and September could well end up with just 31mm.

FAX: the current chart shows a standoff between LP on the Atlantic (normal LP 971mb Iceland and ex-hurricane Gabrielle 991mb Azores). Gabrielle turns aside at the Portuguese coast and is in the Straits of Gibraltar 1013mb  Mon 29th. The Atlantic LP manages to push a front across Britain over the weekend, more active than shown yesterday with local centre 1013mb Sun 28th NE England. By Mon 28th there's a new LP 976mb Greenland but not going anywhere, and HP nosing into Britain from the SW.

GFS Op 0z: continues to develop the HP from the SW forming a ridge to the S Baltic and eventually a broad swathe of HP across N Europe. However by Sat 4th this area of HP has moved S-wards as LP becomes more active 935mb Iceland, boosted by the remains of a hurricane from W Atlantic, with the result of strong maybe gale force W-lies for Britain. This fills but as it moves to Scandinavia brings a spell of N-lies for Britain Tue 7th after which normal service  is resumed (alternating ridges of HP and shallow depressions moving E-ward across Britain)

ECM only keeps the swathe of HP to Thu 2nd then on Fri 3rd a shallow trough for Britain, followed by the gales on Sat 4th but more from the SW than W.

GEM looks more like GFS but manages to embed a trough in the W-lies for Sun 5th

GEFS: temps rising from cool in the S or near norm in the N to a brief warm period (5C above norm) around Sat 4th after which a messy disagreement between ens members but converging on cool/cold (mean 4C below norm) Sat 11th. Some rain appearing in various runs, most likely Mon 29th and then after Sat 4th, not much in the S, rather more in the N esp NW.

AIFS:  London, maxima steady at 15-16C, rain Sun 28th and a little on Mon 6th. Edinburgh, similar to London, a little cooler later on and rain spread out over some hours rather than peaking.

GFS Op 00z; The above ridge persists until Fri 3rd when  pressure drops in NW Scotland becoming a defined LP 1000mb Sat 4th moving SE-wards. HP then recovers only for another trough to follow the same track on Wed 8th. Again a recovery, 1030mb Ireland Thu 9th, but this cell moves to C Europe and by by Sun 12th Britain's weather is dictated by LP 965 mb S of Iceland.

ECM differs after Sat 4th. when LP 975mb Faeroes swallows ex-Humberto (a trivial feature on GFS) and that in combination HP 1025mb Spain introduces a period of strong W-lies (no local LP crossing Britain)

GEFS; temps rise to norm and stay there (or a little above in the N) for the first week of October before gently cooling again. Some rain in the N & W Sun 28th but otherwise mainly dry until significant rain Sat 4th, and some rain thereafter. 

AIFS; London, maxima rising to top teens Thu 2nd before dropping back to 15C, trivial amounts of rain from time to time. Edinburgh, maxima about 15C, cloudy with little diurnal range, and cooler later (10C Wed 8th). Rain at regular intervals.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/Posts/t24393-Model-output-breakout-thread 

GFS Op 00z; is more optimistic about the ridge from the Baltic, which it shows established on Mon 29th and persisting, even when the 'anchoring' HP cell moves further off to the SE (to E Belarus). From Mon 6th pressure drops over Britain and by Thu 9th an LP centre has moved down from Iceland 985mb N Ireland while an ex-Hurricane (presumably Humberto) is menacing Newfoundland. The LP over Britain fills while ex-Humberto gets caught up in the N Atlantic circulation and by Mon 13th Britain is under W-lies between LP 970 mb Iceland and HP 1030mb Biscay.

ECM; also positive about HP hanging on for next week but then ex-Humberto (assuming it is he rather than yet another ex-hurricane) arrives sooner and closer to Britain, 965mb Sat 4th Rockall with SW gales before ex-Humberto deepens again and moves on rapidly past Shetland 955mb Sun  5th. Then a brief spell of HP from the SE but the Atlantic looks to be brewing something by Tue 7th

Both ECM and GFS are predicting unsettled weather for Britain around Sun 5th but from different causes. GEM sides with ECM (it even has a double hurricane Wed 1st off America) and a much deeper LP over Rockall Sat 4th at 945mb but then settles down quickly to W-lies, backing to mild but strong SW-ly Tue 7th 

GEFS; mean temp close to or a little below norm to Mon 4th, then a big divergence between ens members; majority on the cool side but with some very mild ones dragging up the mean. Mainly dry to the 4th then rain on and off. Milder at first in Scotland, also rain on Sat 28th. Heavy rain possible in the SW. 

AIFS; London, maxima rising to 20C through next week, dropping to 15C after Wed 8th, very little rain at any time. Edinburgh, maxima at 15C, cooler after 8th, presumably a lot of cloud as very low diurnal range (unlike London), rain Sun 28th, Fri 3rd and after Wed 8th.

Another period in which hurricane remnants are proving difficult to predict

I'm resigned to the fact that I may never see 20mm of rain in a day again! Unless nature comes to the rescue with deluges throughout November and December this will be my lowest ever annual rainfall here. So that is almost 20 years of my records but probably much longer than that if not all time!

You've not seen the latest UKMO output at 156 hrs? Seems to be on its own as it is very different to what the 12z GFS & ECM are showing.

GEM has an even more spectacular dartboard for Sat 4th; ECM had something similar this morning  but the 12z has backed off and may yet deliver that Indian Summer

Yes, an outlier hopefully.   Umberto should help us with the Indian summer. 

GFS Op 0z; confirms FAX and then picks up ex-Humberto and deepens it as it interacts with the jet Stream, forming a dartboard low S of Iceland at 940mb (I think - isobars too close to be sure) with SW-ly gales  while the HP moves SE-wards to S Russia. Humberto fills quickly, trailing a trough across Britain Mon 4th, and then there is a repeat performance with the next ex-hurricane, which forms another dartboard low 955mb S Iceland Wed 6th with its trough crossing Britain. Weather here then settles down to standard W-ly, though on Mon 13th pressure rises over Britain while LP dips into Scandinavia. 

ECM; like GFS but the ex-hurricanes do not deepen to anything like the same extent, however are still potent enough to generate strong SW-lies for Britain for next weekend, these slowly retreating to the NW.

GEM; also revives Humberto after it declines in mid-Atlantic but brings it much closer, on Sat 4th 965mb Western Isles, moving quickly into the Norwegian Sea but then forming a new LP in its circulation which runs across Scotland and into the N Sea 970 mb Tue 7th with NW-lies for all, then back to W-lies. The next ex-hurricane dies in mid-Atlantic.

Indian summer? Mild enough air from the SW but too windy at most times and places to feel summer-like on GFS, and no trace of it on GEM. But AIFS thinks otherwise, at least for England.

GEFS; temps close to or a little below norm in the S or above in the N with good ens agreement until Sun 3rd, then mean continues near norm in a well-spread envelope 6-8C above and below norm so no sensible prediction. Rain in most runs at some point after Sun 3rd. likely to be heaviest soon after that, but again little agreement for later. The far NW is shown as having frequent heavy rain.

AIFS, London, maxima rising to 23C Mon 6th then dropping back slightly, minimal rain until Sun 12th. Edinburgh, maxima around 15-16C, heavy rain Thu 2nd and Sun 12th

GFS Op 0z; confirms FAX and then picks up ex-Humberto and deepens it as it interacts with the jet Stream, forming a dartboard low S of Iceland at 940mb (I think - isobars too close to be sure) with SW-ly gales  while the HP moves SE-wards to S Russia. Humberto fills quickly, trailing a trough across Britain Mon 4th, and then there is a repeat performance with the next ex-hurricane, which forms another dartboard low 955mb S Iceland Wed 6th with its trough crossing Britain. Weather here then settles down to standard W-ly, though on Mon 13th pressure rises over Britain while LP dips into Scandinavia. 

ECM; like GFS but the ex-hurricanes do not deepen to anything like the same extent, however are still potent enough to generate strong SW-lies for Britain for next weekend, these slowly retreating to the NW.

GEM; also revives Humberto after it declines in mid-Atlantic but brings it much closer, on Sat 4th 965mb Western Isles, moving quickly into the Norwegian Sea but then forming a new LP in its circulation which runs across Scotland and into the N Sea 970 mb Tue 7th with NW-lies for all, then back to W-lies. The next ex-hurricane dies in mid-Atlantic.

Indian summer? Mild enough air from the SW but too windy at most times and places to feel summer-like on GFS, and no trace of it on GEM. But AIFS thinks otherwise, at least for England.

GEFS; temps close to or a little below norm in the S or above in the N with good ens agreement until Sun 3rd, then mean continues near norm in a well-spread envelope 6-8C above and below norm so no sensible prediction. Rain in most runs at some point after Sun 3rd. likely to be heaviest soon after that, but again little agreement for later. The far NW is shown as having frequent heavy rain.

AIFS, London, maxima rising to 23C Mon 6th then dropping back slightly, minimal rain until Sun 12th. Edinburgh, maxima around 15-16C, heavy rain Thu 2nd and Sun 12th

GFS Op 0z; confirms FAX and then picks up ex-Humberto and deepens it as it interacts with the jet Stream, forming a dartboard low S of Iceland at 940mb (I think - isobars too close to be sure) with SW-ly gales  while the HP moves SE-wards to S Russia. Humberto fills quickly, trailing a trough across Britain Sat 4th, and then there is a repeat performance with the next ex-hurricane, which forms another dartboard low 955mb S Iceland Wed 6th with its trough crossing Britain. Weather here then settles down to standard W-ly, though on Mon 13th pressure rises over Britain while LP dips into Scandinavia. 

ECM; like GFS but the ex-hurricanes do not deepen to anything like the same extent, however are still potent enough to generate strong SW-lies for Britain for next weekend, these slowly retreating to the NW.

GEM; also revives Humberto after it declines in mid-Atlantic but brings it much closer, on Sat 4th 965mb Western Isles, moving quickly into the Norwegian Sea but then forming a new LP in its circulation which runs across Scotland and into the N Sea 970 mb Tue 7th with NW-lies for all, then back to W-lies. The next ex-hurricane dies in mid-Atlantic.

Indian summer? Mild enough air from the SW but too windy at most times and places to feel summer-like on GFS, and no trace of it on GEM. But AIFS thinks otherwise, at least for England.

GEFS; temps close to or a little below norm in the S or above in the N with good ens agreement until Fri 3rd, then mean continues near norm in a well-spread envelope 6-8C above and below norm so no sensible prediction. Rain in most runs at some point after Sun 3rd. likely to be heaviest soon after that, but again little agreement for later. The far NW is shown as having frequent heavy rain.

AIFS, London, maxima rising to 23C Mon 6th then dropping back slightly, minimal rain until Sun 12th. Edinburgh, maxima around 15-16C, heavy rain Thu 2nd and Sun 12th

GFS Op 00z: agrees with Fax, and throws in the remains of a hurricane to deepen the LP 950mb Western Isles Sat 4th. This moves away only slowly, and a brief ridge of HP is suppressed by the remnants of the next hurricane though less dramatic, just a shallow trough crossing Britain Wed 8th. For the rest of that week there are W-lies but then a powerful HP cell sets up over Britain, 1040mb Irish Sea Sat 12th, drifting to Scotland but still governing weather for Britain Wed 15th.

ECM like GFS in developing deep LP Sat 4th though placing it near Iceland; then the later trough is copied from GFS though more in the N Sea than over Belgium

GEM like GFS at first but the LP Sat 4th is less deep over Scotland, however it there is a significant trough for the rest of Britain (absent from gFS) extending to 980mb Belgium. It then reverts to GFS but with the next trough delayed to Thu 9th. 

GEFS mean temps rise to Sat 4th (indeed well above norm in the N) then dip (3c below norm) to Mon 6th. After this the mean stays near norm though there are many ens members predicting a warm spell around Wed 8th before a general scramble sets in. Dry at first in the S, heavy rain generally Sat 4th, smaller amounts continuing after that but always wet in the NW

AIFS London, maxima high teens at first, cooler (near 16-17C) after rain on Sat 4th, mainly dry at other times.  Edinburgh, similar pattern in maxima though say 3C lower, and rain preceding the 4th.

I'm away to Friday; it should be possible to keep reviews going (is there anywhere not connected these days) though the time when they appear will depend on what other people are doing.