The Weather Outlook

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Gandalf The White
28 September 2025 21:59:19

TS 9 is now named Imelda and expected to run along the florida coast before heading out into the Atlantic as a full hurricane.

Trump has been lucky. He dismantles NOAA and then all the hurricanes run off into the Atlantic without making landfall, so demonstrating that a full strength NOAA was never needed to produce detailed forecasts for the US of A itself.

Originally Posted by: DEW 

But will his luck hold for three more hurricane seasons?  Don’t hold your breath, as they say.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
08 October 2025 06:49:30

TS Jerry now named and forecast to become a hurricane as it brushes past the Leeward Islands and then the Bahamas before swinging north into the Atlantic, following the track of other hurricanes this year.

War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

Roger Parsons
08 October 2025 06:53:45

TS Jerry now named and forecast to become a hurricane as it brushes past the Leeward Islands and then the Bahamas before swinging north into the Atlantic, following the track of other hurricanes this year.

Originally Posted by: DEW 

My childhood Hurricane Season mnemonic had "October - all over" as its last line! It's thought it dates from the 1800s.

RogerP

West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire

Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.

William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
08 October 2025 07:31:58

My childhood Hurricane Season mnemonic had "October - all over" as its last line! It's thought it dates from the 1800s.

Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 

Typically, about 20% of hurricane season activity remains after October 5.

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/10/tropical-storm-jerry-forms-a-close-pass-by-the-leeward-islands-expected/ 

War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

Roger Parsons
08 October 2025 07:35:09

Typically, about 20% of hurricane season activity remains after October 5.

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/10/tropical-storm-jerry-forms-a-close-pass-by-the-leeward-islands-expected/ 

Originally Posted by: DEW 

That's so, but my unspoken question was has there been a meaningful change since the rhyme was invented in the British Caribbean 200 years ago? Everyone knew and used the saying in the 1950s - probably still do. And mostly it held good for the southern Caribbean.

RogerP

West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire

Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.

William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830

Gandalf The White
08 October 2025 07:50:09

That's so, but my unspoken question was has there been a meaningful change since the rhyme was invented in the British Caribbean 200 years go? Everyone knew and used the saying in the 1950s - probably still do. And mostly it held good for the southern Caribbean.

Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 

The season now doesn’t end officially until the end of November, and December ones aren’t that rare, but seldom make landfall in the US.  Warming oceans will, all things being equal, tend to stretch the season.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



+2
Roger Parsons
08 October 2025 08:11:54

The season now doesn’t end officially until the end of November, and December ones aren’t that rare, but seldom make landfall in the US.  Warming oceans will, all things being equal, tend to stretch the season.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Thanks. I suspect "folk sayings" about weather may be good generalisations based on observation, but don't capture/express the wider data. We now have is better recording of weather and climate trends. And better communication between scientists and the general public too. Yet still we find the dissenters and deniers who prefer to rely on the words of unknown "experts"!  

RogerP

West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire

Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.

William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830

The Beast from the East
08 October 2025 08:35:16

The season now doesn’t end officially until the end of November, and December ones aren’t that rare, but seldom make landfall in the US.  Warming oceans will, all things being equal, tend to stretch the season.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

nothing has made landfall this year.  Trump supporters claiming its down to Gulf of Mexico being renamed!  With all the cuts to the National weather service, they have been very lucky. 

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

johncs2016
08 October 2025 16:45:34

TS Jerry now named and forecast to become a hurricane as it brushes past the Leeward Islands and then the Bahamas before swinging north into the Atlantic, following the track of other hurricanes this year.

Originally Posted by: DEW 

Very interesting to see a TS (and possible future hurricane) share the same name as a certain TWO forum member in the south of Edinburgh, although that is probably more of a coincidence more than anything else.

The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

DEW
  • DEW
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08 October 2025 21:11:38

Very interesting to see a TS (and possible future hurricane) share the same name as a certain TWO forum member in the south of Edinburgh, although that is probably more of a coincidence more than anything else.

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 

I'm waiting for the fourth storm of the North Atlantic season, which will be Dave.

War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

+1
Retron
10 October 2025 07:16:15
Interesting to see Karen pop up, and forecast to stay as a STS above 50N - it'll end up off the top of the map on the NHC homepage!
Leysdown, north Kent
The Beast from the East
10 October 2025 08:42:40
Karen on Satellite.  Does have an eye sort of.  Not expected to go anywhere but just act as a heat up perhaps

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/floater.php?stormid=AL112025 

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

DEW
  • DEW
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11 October 2025 06:58:41
Karen became a named storm at 11 p.m. EDT Thursday while located at 44.5 degrees north, 33.0 degrees west, or about 545 miles northwest of the Azores. That made it the northernmost system in Atlantic history to be designated as a tropical or subtropical storm by the National Hurricane Center. ... and ... It wasn’t warm waters that nurtured Karen – sea surface temperatures were only around 19 degrees Celsius (66 degrees Fahrenheit) at the time – but rather a favorable pocket within a much larger mid-latitude storm system that allowed Karen to consolidate its convection. 

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/10/karen-becomes-the-atlantics-northernmost-named-storm-on-record/ 

The same link has details of a major non-tropical storm due to ravage the NE United States

War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

+1
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
13 October 2025 22:26:26
TS Lorenzo now formed off the coast of Africa. late in the season for the formation of a storm in such an easterly position.

More interesting is the possible track of an LP centre into the Caribbean next week. Surely with all the heat energy stored up in the Caribbean/Gulf, it ought to develop into something major.

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/10/tropical-storm-lorenzo-forms-in-the-central-tropical-atlantic/ 

and Michael Lowry referenced therein.

War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
19 October 2025 20:18:55

TS Lorenzo now formed off the coast of Africa. late in the season for the formation of a storm in such an easterly position.

More interesting is the possible track of an LP centre into the Caribbean next week. Surely with all the heat energy stored up in the Caribbean/Gulf, it ought to develop into something major.

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/10/tropical-storm-lorenzo-forms-in-the-central-tropical-atlantic/ 

and Michael Lowry referenced therein.

Originally Posted by: DEW 

Four days ago NHC would have none of this - 'No activity is expected for the next seven days' - then a couple of days ago they reluctantly gave it a 10% chance, and now it's up to 70%.

The way it's ramping up suggests to me that there could be something quite nasty in the Caribbean towards the end of next week.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc 

War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

DEW
  • DEW
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22 October 2025 21:38:25
Jamaica very much in the firing line as Melissa becomes a major hurricane just south of that island and settles there for both Sunday and Monday 26th/27th.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/222038.shtml?cone#contents 

War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

The Beast from the East
23 October 2025 00:58:53

Jamaica very much in the firing line as Melissa becomes a major hurricane just south of that island and settles there for both Sunday and Monday 26th/27th.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/222038.shtml?cone#contents 

Originally Posted by: DEW 

Still expected to miss Jamaica thankfully.  Its been a long time since they were hit .  

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
23 October 2025 06:53:08

Still expected to miss Jamaica thankfully.  Its been a long time since they were hit .  

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Still a close enough approach - they may well avoid serious wind damage but rainfall totals will be high. And floods kill more people than high winds.

War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

The Beast from the East
23 October 2025 09:13:35
Actually she has now shifted north and could impact Jamaica.  Discussion highlights the uncertainty.  Since she is moving so slowly that will also cause huge flooding problems as David mentioned.  Jamaica has been lucky for many years. But seems the luck has run out.  Would be a major news event here with so many people from that region living here.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/230838.shtml 

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

The Beast from the East
24 October 2025 17:04:26
Melissa now strengthening at last. Up to 60mph, expected to bomb when sheer drops off tomorrow.  Western Jamaica landfall possible, though will be close enough for long period for catastrophic flooding, then Haiti and Cuba in the firing line.  

Shaping up to be a major disaster for the region which is very poor and hasnt been hit for a while so lack of preparedness likely

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
24 October 2025 20:52:31
Some European models continue to take it westward past Jamaica and on into the western Caribbean, but the majority show this most unusual sharp turn to the north, landfalling on western Jamaica as a cat. 4, then on to Cuba, and tickling up the N Atlantic in a week's time.
War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

Saint Snow
24 October 2025 21:48:23
Always a pity these don't hit Mar a Lago and bury that evil, orange piece of scum under tons of rubble

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

The Beast from the East
25 October 2025 01:05:52
Latest ECM and GFS both have direct impact on Jamaica on Tues morning.   NHC agrees as well.  Melissa expected to bomb tomorrow when the sheer reduces.  

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

The Beast from the East
25 October 2025 01:07:10

Always a pity these don't hit Mar a Lago and bury that evil, orange piece of scum under tons of rubble

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

He's turned the White House to rubble already. I dont think he is going to be moving out of that place for many years.  

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Quantum
25 October 2025 19:23:32
Looks like the eye has started to form. Expect some rapid intensification now. Could be a cat4 or even 5 by the morning. 
25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

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