No it is not forecast to be cold.

"Bleak" Very Dramatic

 Just a spell of wetter weather after a very dry Summer

GFS Op 00z; the N-S ridge of HP hangs on for the BH (with an exception for the far NW) as ex-Erin pauses south of Iceland and fills before pushing troughs SE-wards (e.g. 990mb Clyde Sat 30th; MetO shows some rain for the south Thu 28th but still only showery). New LP from Greenland then follows behind, with local centres in various parts of Britain Tue 2nd - Fri 5th before summer returns with HP from the SW Mon 8th.

Jet stream still mostly random streaks but makes attempts to get going near SW Britain Fri 29th and Sat 6th

ECM; like GFS at first but brings the troughs from Erin further south (990mb E Anglia Sat 30th) and then like GFS keeps pressure low over Britain but without any defined centres,

GEM; rather like GFS but ends up Tue 2nd with LP 1000mb centred N England

AIFS; London, max 25C on Mon 25th, dropping to 20C with some significant rain Fri 29th, temps staying around 20C with occasional light rain thereafter. Edinburgh, similar temp profile but 3 or 4 C lower, persistent light rain w/b Tue 29th, then some more on Fri 5th

GEFS; brief warmth Tue 26th then temps at or a little below norm to Mon 8th, rain for the south Sat 30th in all ens members, small amounts a couple of days earlier, random occurrence with occasional heavy spikes in various runs after, rain for the north persistent in small amounts throughout esp in NW but tendency to be heavier later

ECM (the only model I have looked at this morning) shows more a befitting pattern for the time of year. Breezy and with some rain at times and  a bit cooler as well, though still always warm. 

For sure we will see lot of sunshine and feel warmer factors under mobile set ups compare to the recent over cast skies and time to remove this unwanted cloudy HP out for good.  August turned out a very poor dull month overall against the models depicted we under full sunshine set ups.  

MetO rainfall chart shows widespread showers or quickly passing fronts from Tue 26th onwards until something heavier and more persistent moves up the Channel on Fri 29th.

GFS Op 00z: HP and warmth from the south hanging on to the end of the BH, then as remnants of Erin get closer a general drop in pressure and on Fri 29th twin centres of LP 990mb Western Isles and C England. This complex moves N-wards but returns to affect the whole country Mon 1st, developing a vicious-looking LP S England* Wed 3rd (?975mb -isobars too close to count!) moving off NE-wards and ushering in a W-ly pattern to Tue 9th. The return of HP from the SW shown yesterday has now been dropped.

ECM: similar to GFS - the first approach of LP Fri 29th is a flabbier affair 995mb Irish Sea but later it also has a localised LP Tue 2nd (rather than Wed 3rd) less deep but still significant 985mb Irish Sea

GEM : the same dates for LPs but the second one is trivial by comparison 1005mb Cornwall Wed 3rd

AIFS: London, from a peak of 26C Tue 26th dropping to maxima 20C through to Sun 7th, rain from time to time after Tue 26th, heaviest Fri 29th and Thu 4th  but not a great deal of it. Edinburgh, maximum 24C on Tue and then to about 17C throughout, rain then occurring on most days.

GEFS: peak of high temp for a couple of days then from Wed 3rd temps marginally below norm. More rain than previously forecast, in the S definitely Fri 29th but several runs showing high totals from time to time esp in SW, most runs with at least a little rain; in the N more continuous, least in NE, but high totals absent.

*its line of development and SSTs are reminiscent of the Great Storm of 1987 - but at 10 days out the forecast could easily change. Jet stream is active in short bursts around S England in the first week of Sept

News to those of us living on the south coast. I have solar hot water and haven't needed to supplement it since April

From what I can see from the monthly statistics so far it looks around average in terms of sunshine so far (in addition to drier and warmer than average).

I think probably the eastern side of England right down to Kent has been somewhat cloudier this August than the previous summer months. So for Southend there was 263 hrs June, 192 hrs July, 154 hrs August to date. So, given the less daylight hours it doesn't look like August will be significantly less sunny than July by the end of the month with June a stand out sunny month.

Any chance of the CET record looks to be shot now,  horrific end to the week in store.  Drought broken as well which I suppose is a good thing.  

Indeed . And clear blue skies this mirning too and probably tomo 

Looks like the next mini warm spell will be around the 5-7 September. 

Yes, all change from this morning as hurricane Fernand pumps up more warm air from the south 6th/7th Sep. (and that vicious LP referred to in this morning's review is now just a shallow LP 1005mb off Brittany)

Let hope so to get some settled warm spells in Sept with the help from the hurricanes to keep the HP moving along than stuck in wrong place like this week lately.

Just to ask about your solar hot water to use verses combi boiler that already give hot water every time when turn on.  I know from living in Cyprus we had solar panels to heat water in a tank and a standard boiler like here before that you need to turn on in the old days in winter months.  Does it by pass your combi bolier to get hot water free or still have a hot water tank to store it up?

There's a by-pass, same as what you had in Cyprus; if solar is generating enough hot water the combi doesn't come on, and what is generated by solar is stored in the tank.

In fact I deliberately switch off the gas boiler as much as possible, and that generally means late April to early November, plus a few odd days within those limits.

MetO rainfall chart shows fairly narrow fronts crossing Britain from the west early tomorrow (Tue) and midday Wed 27th but both breaking up into showery rain further east, and especially so in the south. The next batches of rain are more broadly based, one for NW Scotland Thu into Fri, the other moving SE from Wales on Fri 29th. But although the latter had offered a real chance of breaking the drought in the SE, most of the rain is now shown as crossing N France instead.

GFS Op 00z: Erin filling slowly off S Iceland while pushing troughs across Britain for the next two days, and then moving as a shallow LP to SW Ireland 990 mb Thu 28th. Pressure remains low over Britain and a new centre develops 985mb N Wales Sun 31st. This is followed by an Atlantic LP 985mb Rockall Wed 3rd but pressure remains high over France so gales for S England. From Sat 6th pressure rises to the east with warm, even hot S-lies, perhaps encouraged by ex-TS Fernand on the Atlantic (though this is less of a feature than shown yesterday). This early Sep heat wave lasts only a couple of days before LP from the Atlantic moves in again.

ECM: Remnants of Erin get to N Ireland 990mb Fri 29th but the subsequent LPs are shallow compared to GFS and no sign of gales in the following mid-week, just standard W/SW-lies. In the last daily chart (Thu 4th) winds are beginning to back into the S, so maybe warmth from the weekend

GEM: Like GFS though in the last daily chart (Thu 4th) a suggestion that LP may hang around near Cornwall and with no sign of Fernand may prevent the hotter weather developing the following Sat. 

AIFS: London, Maxima dropping from today's 25C to a period of 20Cs, and even lower for a couple of days Fri/Sat 5th/6th. Some rain at any time, heaviest  (or least light?) Sat 30th, Wed 3rd  and Sun 7th. Edinburgh, temp profile similar but 3 or 4 C lower, rain also possible at any time with minor peak Thu 4th.

GEFS: peak temps tomorrow Tue then mean close to norm or a little below to Wed 10th, op and control warmer around Mon 8th. Some rain possible at any time,  most certain in S Fri 29th, more evenly distributed in N, and always likely to be heavier in the W

All the glorious weather we’ve had this year, now I’m really looking for calm, dry weather for next weekend.  Daniel, our son, and Becca get married on Saturday and I’d really like to keep my hat dry.  Their venue is in Derbyshire, with a lovely seating area by the river Derwent and it would be such a shame if we can’t use it.  Please weather gods, be kind.  

Do you still get power from them even on cloudier days?

Congratulations to your son and fiancee - I'll keep my fingers crossed for you for good weather!

Well, being pedantic,  I'd describe it as energy rather than power - but the answer is no. Despite what the salesman said, hazy sunshine doesn't deliver much. But one fully sunny half day,  heats the tank to last three days with average consumption,; I take showers rather than baths so water used is not an enormous amount, and there's only me in the household.

For the rest, I rely on Chichester being the sunniest CITY in Britain, at about 1900 total hours average annually. Other places on the south coast  from Eastbourne to Ventnor select statistics to make them appear the sunniest with about 1920 hours, but none is a city.

Many congrats, they should have done it a week earlier though! 

GFS OP 0z; Ex-hurricane Erin combined with Atlantic circulation starts by sitting S of Iceland and pushing a broad trough across Britain, then by Thu 28th moving closer and filling 990mb W Scotland before spreading to the rest of Britain 990mb Sat 30th. Brief W-lies, then next LP arrives from Greenland, 985mb Rockall Wed 3rd, adding a secondary in its circulation 995mb running across N England Fri 5th. HP over France persists so gales for the Channel 30th and 5th. Finally HP from the west moves in and covers Britain 1025mb Tue 9th.

ECM; similar to GFS but the LP Wed 3rd comes further S and is present 985mb Scottish borders without a secondary being present

GEM: as GFS at first, though with LP situated a little further north so no gales on 30th. Then quite different; LP around Wed 3rd dives SE-wards towards NW Spain which with HP over the N Sea pumps up a new heat wave from Thu 4th

AIFS: London maxima soon dropping to a little below 20C for some time to come, rain most likely Fri 29th and Wed 3rd, traces at other times. Edinburgh, similar but maxima settling at about 17C, the rain is there but a day later in each case

GEFS: mean temps settling close to norm or a little below to Thu 11th (Op and control both have a couple of warmer days about Mon 8th). In the S, heavy rain likely for the end of this week, gradually fizzling out; from Birmingham N-wards more persistent but no really large amounts on any given day. 

Definitely worth keeping an eye on developments this Saturday. Potentially the most widespread rain even in southern and central regions  for a good while. We'll see! Also perhaps very windy in the south. 

… but there is a very serious water scarcity crisis in the east of Scotland just now, and that solution provides nothing at all in the way of much needed rainfall in those areas.

But if it comes to pass here in the Deep South, it will be the start of the beginning of the end of the Historic Drought of 2025.

Your turn will come too.

As a slight aside, the seasonal models seems to have backed away from signalling a wetter than average autumn in the UK. I know they are broad brush, and the precipitation signal in particular is prone to large error.