Only for now. These ex-tropical systems moving in to the North Atlantic make the model runs notoriously unreliable. A simple shift in the path they take can completely flip the pattern across Western Europe. It makes late August, September and October the hardest time of the year to forecast more than a few days ahead for us. I wouldn't be surprised if the next run completely changes the fortunes again.

I'm in the Lakes next week so an ECM outcome would be great with easterly winds , mild temps and the low out to the SW.  But next week could easily end up cold and miserable in the NW with a slight change of track. I feel the wonderful summer is almost at an end. 

You can have your water via snowmelt in April 26 after the deep snowdrifts, on the ground since mid-December, finally melt

😉

It's the big problem with the UK weather in summer: it's unpredictability.

While I'd love to see some rain (which would be a novelty, considering August has been dry here), I'm not pinning my hopes on any for the remainder of the month. GFS has been showing a decent splash as a result of ex-Erin for a while, but last night's output removed the rain and inserted a couple of days in the high 20s instead - yuck, frankly.

The MetO raw has always showed a dry week ahead, and it continues to do so now.

(As ever, this applies to the SE where I am, further afield it'll be different).

'Erin's' path is very unpredictable as of yet. ECM (18z) vs GFS (00z) so different even at 144hrs. 

GFS Op 00z; The drift of HP northwards and its return southwards for the weekend is confirmed (1025mb Hampshire Sat 23rd). After the BH weekend British weather is increasingly influenced by Erin. After a period of deepening, this morning's output places Erin S of Iceland 970mb Wed 27th, filling and becoming part of the usual eastward movement of Atlantic depressions. (Every day a different output!) Thus mild SW-lies at first becoming a broad trough 1005mb covering Britain Fri 29th, then winds switching into the west or northwest before HP puts in an appearance form the SW Fri 5th.

ECM; keeps Erin on a more southerly track, reaching a point west of Ireland Wed 27th (Every model a different output!), After giving a brief spell of warm S-lies, Erin fills and moves SE-wards to Biscay 990mb Sat 30th with Britain under a trough of LP extending N-wards from there.

GEM; takes Erin NE-wards towards Iceland as per GFS but has it returning while filling to the Bristol Channel 995mb Thu 28th bringing some quite cold air with it, and sticking around there to the 30th.

So on Sat 30th, Erin's remnants are in Iceland, the Bristol Channel or Biscay - take your pick!

AIFS; London, maxima rising to 25C Tue 26th, and dry, then dropping back to a spell around 20C with some rain (but not as much as shown yesterday); Edinburgh, same temp trend but about 4C cooler, small amounts of rain at any time. slightly heavier from Fri 29th.

GEFS; temps mostly near norm, a little cooler at first, a little warmer Tue 26th, a little rain in most runs from 27th, heaviest around Fri 29th and more likely to persist in the north after that

Agreed and iinacurately by the forecasts and models had been very wrong this week, against the warm uppers and sunshine never materelized and even this morning unforecast light drizzle that now stopped do not show on the forecast or graph that show flatlined no rain spikes.

I don't trust the 00z graph showing warming up again at the weekend.

The slight, patchy drizzle isn’t likely to register in the models, is it?  It generally amounts to about 0.0001 of a mm.

Another bust of a forecast for most today.

Sun wont come through till 5 or 6pm

That worries me the models push back Erin was going to save us from this nasty killer easterly set up that brought 24 hours clouds instead of past when it always clear late morning and tolerant with it.  It effecting everyone a lot and seeing all the posts in NW how everyone is effected by this.  If Erin continue to stay back or refused to get near to UK we will suffer more with easterly winds foreseeable.

GFS 12z has a rather sultry Bank Holiday Monday

Yep all rain cancelled for the central southern and south east. So much for Erin

This has to be record breaking? No appreciable rainfall here since may 2025.

I don’t know what output you’re looking at but that’s not what GFS or ECM are showing?

Indeed GFS, ECM and GEM all showing ex-Erin firmly over the UK next weekend. Will be a good test of the waterproofness of my new tent I think. 

A transition to more unsettled weather continues to look likely next week. That said, there remains a lot of uncertainty about rain totals.

Significant differences between the main models by the middle of next week.  

GFS Op 0z; Current ridge of HP lying N-S through Britain persists until Tue 26th when ex-hurricane Erin becomes the major influence. Erin moves from Atlantic to 965mb SW Iceland Tue 26th, then still filling drifts SE-wards to 990mb covering all of Britain Sat 30th with some rather cool air before moving off to Scandinavia Tue 2nd. Pressure rises briefly before a 'traditional' LP moves to N Scotland from Greenland, 995mb  Western Isles Fri 5th with gales for S England. 

MetO rainfall chart for Tue 26th shows fronts with narrow band of heavy rain that Erin presumably acquired near Greenland, approaching W Ireland

ECM;  has Erin stalling off NW Ireland Wed 27th before flattening out into a shallow area of LP 1005mb mid-Atlantic to England to Germany

GEM;  has Erin 975mb off W Ireland Tue 26th filling and drifting to Cornwall Thu 28th, persisting and over E England 1000mb Sun 30th

AIFS; London maxima rising to 25C Tue 26th then dropping back and continuing at about 20C with measurable rain Fri 29th and Wed 4th. Edinburgh temp profile similar to London but about 3C lower, small amounts of rain now and then after Tue 26th.

GEFS; becoming steadily warmer  to Tue 26th (3 or 4 C above norm in S, less in N), small amounts of rain from then on (but most significant around Sat 30th, dying away in S, more persistent in N/NW, not much in far E at any time)

If Only. 

Got distant relations in the PNW and their water all comes from snow and glacier melt off MT Adams. So in a hot spell  they get more water.

A few more days of mid to high 20s here in the South and then a very more "normal" feel to things with average temps and some actual rain. Perfect timing as I head to Australia next week...might need to pack a few jumpers given the winter is still in full effect after a great ski season.

An operational issue here. On my phone the charts are so swamped by adverts I can't see the GFS step-sequence anymore it's covered by them. More and more adverts keep piling in? Could you remind me about the advert free method Brian please

GFS Op 00z; N-S ridge of high pressure hangs on until Tue 26th when ex-hurricane Erin takes up position S of Iceland 965mb and (MetO rainfall chart) begins to push rain in to the west, NW Scotland at first, then a front all the way down W Britain which fades out as it moves east. By Fri 29th Erin has filled to 995mb Irish Sea, but all of Britain covered by LP and cool air from the NW. This LP soon moves to Scandinavia but with the aid of a small LP passing Cornwall Mon 1st keeps N-ly winds going until Wed 3rd. As so often this summer, HP then builds back from the SW and (barring a minor trough crossing the north) is well established Ireland 1030mb Sun 7th.

GEM; similar to GFS except that Ex-Erin is located further south near the Channel, over the weekend Fri 29th - Sun 31st, and Scotland has a few days of E-ly winds before they swing round to the north

ECM; places ex-Erin even further south 990mb Brittany, then developing into slack LP across Britain as a whole before moving to NW Britain Mon 1st (and not Scandinavia)

AIFS; London maxima rising to 26C Mon 25th dropping to 20C Fri 29th with rain on that date, then until Sat 6th a remarkably repetitive pattern with maxima 20C and a little rain late each day (thundery showers?). Edinburgh, similar temp profile but some 3-4C lower, ad rain starting Tue 26th, becoming heavy Sat 30th and more persistent.

GEFS; brief warmth Tue 26th then temps consistently close to or a little below norm to Sun 7th, rain from Thu 28th and in the S heavy at first but fading  though some runs have heavy bursts esp in the west; in the N rain from 27th and more persistent  also esp in the west 

See the link below for more information. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/weather-news/6458/advert-free-access-on-our-website 

Summer ends on Wednesday by the looks of it. Can't complain really we had a very good run.

September can produce hot temps, even 30 is possible.  But it does look bleak for few weeks  cold and miserable end to the cricket season