UKV has 35C on Tuesday.

A hot spell does appear almost certain now, but as always, length of to be determined. Bring it on! Not for everyone, but then neither is cold weather which I despise. My idea of everything falling into place during winter is a 3 month long-fetch southerly 

GEFS 00Z suggesting that peak heat could be on Wednesday. 

Wednesday looking the warmest up here too, maybe 25 C? 

I’m just coming to the end of a holiday in our house in Burgundy, and the canicule has just set in. 35-36C here expected today (it’s currently 30.8), then upwards from there.

On latest runs it’s possible Mâcon could break its (relatively old, relatively unusually “cool”) all time record of 39.8C recorded in 2003 and 1973. Several days in a row early next week with 40C+ showing in the models. Everywhere else in the wider region has a record of at least 41C set in the last decade. 

The west had always get the highest temps this summer than London itself.  Think here will be 33 to 34C making the hottest day of the year and since Sept 2023 levels.

That's unusual isn't it?

It’s just down to the position of the high and the associated airflow 

ok. Normally don't the hottest temperatures come via tropical continental air and the SE is closest to there.

pub run has heat hanging around  the south until Monday 18.  

GFS Op 00z; End of the W-ly spell as HP settles over Britain from tomorrow 1025mb, and in in conjunction with ex-TS Darren on the Atlantic imports hot air from France over Mon and Tue. Pressure then drops over Britain and although the warmth is still in place, there is an unsettled look through to Sat 16th when LP 1005mb E Anglia. With reinforcement from the Atlantic, shallow LP persists to Thu  21st. The usual ridge of HP then pushes in from the SW but only for a few days; by Mon 25th it has retreated back and is allowing humid W-lies, generated as the remains of a hurricane arrive (first seen off USA Tue 19th)

ECM; differs from GFS after Tue 12th as there is no pressure drop for the UK, the Usual HP pushes in from the SW straight away for all oof Britain; by Tue 19th there is a strong ridge over NW Britain and LP affects France and Channel coasts. 

GEM; similar to GFS but the drop in pressure rather more affects the north - Sat 16th 1000mb Hebrides, and hanging around just west of there instead of covering Britain as a whole. Also shows the hurricane off the USA Tue 19th.

AIFS; London, maxima rise to Tue 12th 32C then drop back with maxima about 25C  to Fri 22nd, significant rain after Tue 19th (but only 50 miles away, Brighton's top temp is 23C and the drop back is to 20C) Edinburgh, the highest is 23C Wed 13th then slowly dropping away to mid-teens by Fri 22nd, small amounts of rain at various times.

GEFS in the S, mean temp rises to a peak Wed 13th 10C above norm but extreme heat short-lived compared to yesterday as through to Sat 23rd 'only' 3C above norm, then lower - a few outliers but most ens members agree. Small chance of small amounts of rain from Thu 14th. In the N, similar temp profile, although the peak heat is lower (+7C) it lasts a few days longer. Small amounts of rain at various times in different ens members throughout.

The heat is still there, but less persistent than previously forecast; still dry from GEFS and AIFS although the pressure chart looks rather unsettled next week.

Let's put it this way, I'm pretty much the most nearest to the Continent anyone can possibly be in the UK and I've yet to experience a 30 C day in my backyard so far this year. 🤣 Speaking of which, there is every chance I'll get to see that next week but I suspect that easterly breeze will scupper that again. 

Coastal areas don't count. Lol!

GFS Op 00Z; HP currently over England moving a little E-wards which combined with LP west of Ireland brings up very warm air from France but by Thu 14th pressure has dropped 1010 mb Scotland and the really hot air has moved off to the east (The synoptics look quite thundery to me but the MetO this morning is only tentative for some storms in the north). New HP cell moves up from the SW and settles near NW Scotland 1035 mb by Wed 20th; LP over France and Spain brings weak E-lies through the Channel. The HP manages to divert an ex-hurricane to Greenland but weakens and by Tue 26th LP 1010mb has arrived in the Channel from the south.

ECM; the new HP cell  arrives earlier (Mon 17th) and has more influence over England. Then by Wed 20th the HP has gone further north, 1030mb Iceland, and widespread LP over Europe is just about affecting S England on its northern edge.

GEM; Like GFS at first but the HP on Wed 20th forms a narrow ridge towards Norway, and LP 1010mb has moved up to affect S England; looking more like ECM at this stage.

AIFS; London, maxima reaching peak value of 31C Tue 12th before dropping away towards 25C for the rest of the week. From Tue 19th a sharp drop to 20C with a little rain. Edinburgh, maxima around 20-25C to Mon 18th (highest Wed 13th) with some rain Mon 11th and Fri 15th, dry later. Max temps after 18th either side of 20C.

GEFS; In the S, max 10C above norm Wed 13th but mean soon dropping back to 2 or 3C above norm through to Tue 26th, with a couple of wildly hot outliers, possible small amounts of rain at various times from Tue 12th. In the N, similar temp profile but less exaggerated, and rain in most ens members with some rain in the coming week, drier later in SE Scotland.

The heat wave is there for the first half of next week, but still quite warm for a long period after that. No general rain, however much that's needed, but occasional downpours here and there.

That spoiler slow moving low over the south east giving rain and 15 C under brisk NE wind to Kent by next weekend. But only one run and not a forecast, especially as UKMO and ECM aren't showing that. Would be impressive if GFS ends up being right on the money with a short burst of very warm weather mid-week before Autumn returns thereafter.

Very little rain there on the GFS accumulated precipitation options in Wetterzentralle as far as I can see?

huge uncertainty for next weekend. either another heatwave, thunderstorms or cold wet easterly

That'll disappear faster than a dusting of snow down here - just the GFS being, well, the GFS!

I can't see there being widespread thunderstorms, let alone a cold wet easterly. This is 2025, things have changed. Another heatwave? I fear so, though summer is fading, thank god. Good weather for arsonists and cancer chancers, bad for just about everything else.

😂 It has. Latest 06z run showing 23 C and 25 C and unbroken sunshine for next weekend. Mind you, I've just looked at the 00z ensemble and the OP was very much an outlier (something I should check more often when it comes to this kind of thing). The joys of trying to predict the weather more than 5 days ahead. 

It's funny really as back in my tomato greenhouse working days I used to loathe the Summer season and looked forward to Autumn when things became much less demanding. Now I've become more as a Summer lover and dread Autumn.  

Good call. its not there on the 06z. Instead we have another heatwave. 

GFS control is insane.  Can we still reach 40?  Probably too late now with solar heating much less.  

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2025081006/gens-0-0-192.png 

ECM ENS could be indicating another temperature ramp around 17/08. 

That gives us 37C by the looks of it.