And on UKMO as well, Should give us down here some heat and humidity

This is nuts. GFS 12z still isnt picking up Dexter.  

It's picking it up but showing it filling and dissipating more quickly than other models. The Op run also renews the heat later on. 

You can see it on the video

Last night's GFS 18Z was extraordinary! This morning's 00Z isn't as nmotable, but it still shows a very warm or hot period developing.

GFS Op 00z; currently a standard W-ly pattern, LP to the north & Hp to the south, but TS Dexter on the Atlantic making little impression as pressure rises over Britain 1025mb Cornwall Mon 11th. This HP cell moves to the NE and after a dip midweek is reinforced by more HP from the SW to form a broad ridge from mid-Atlantic to Norway and covering Britain, lasting to Tue 19th. HP then retreats to Scandinavia 1030mb and Britain is affected by LPs from NW and SE (a dream January scenario!), these LPs combining to a centre 1000mb SW Ireland Fri 22nd. An ex-hurricane Sat 9th in mid-Atlantic, presumably the remains of Dexter, fills and moves towards Spain.

ECM; rather different. TS Dexter runs NE-wards pushing up HP 1025mb  over Britain as it comes closer. The HP moves off into the N Sea and Dexter degenerates into a trough extending from Iceland to Wales Tue 12th before filling and allowing HP to return  from the SW 1020mb broadly until Sat 16th.

GEM; like ECM, Dexter runs NE-wards,  pushing HP up in advance 1025mb Sun 10th, but in this model fills as it approaches Britain leaving Britain in a col between HP Baltic and mid-Atlantic. Tue 12th. This col persists to Fri 15th with occasional incursions from either N or S at times.

AIFS; London, temps rising steadily to maximum 32C Tue 12th and dry, then falling back quickly to maxima ca 20C with a little rain at first and rather more Wed 20th. Edinburgh, max temps either side of 20C with a little rain to Thu 12th, then significant rain esp Sat/Sun 16/17th with maxima dropping to mid-teens. 

GEFS; in the S a warm spell from Fri 8th for a week (mean 2 or 3C above norm) slowly dropping back to norm, usual spread of ens members but op is a persistent hot outlier from Wed 13th to 20th, 6C above norm at first to 10C above later, dry throughout. In the N the warm spell is shorter (12th -16th), cool before and near norm after, less spread of ens members and no particular outliers. Maybe a little rain around Fri 15th.

Quite a lot of variability, something in one or other model for everyone, but that's what ex-hurricanes do for British weather!

Thanks, as ever, for these reviews.

There is variability but my betting is no significant rain and no cold days for some time to come - as it has been here since mid June.  So it is a odd variability.

Yes - a sort of convergent evolution from different directions

I'm surprised the heat lovers aren't on here, salivating away. The models have generally trended warmer these past few days, and down here at least both the MetO and GFS show a heatwave on the way.

MetO raw, for example, has full sunshine for the next week down here, aside from today (partial cloud), with maxes of 24, 24, 25, 25, 27, 28, 28. The GFS also shows a heatwave on the way, with maxes for the wolf centre (near Reading) of 22, 23, 24, 26, 28, 28, 30, 30. 

It's still a long way out, and as usual I'll be hoping they've got it wrong, but it does look like becoming unpleasantly hot (and muggy) again down here. At least the sun's losing its strength a bit now, we're losing over 3 minutes of daylight a day, so it won't be *quite* as searing in that sun as it was in June. 

GFS Op 00z - LP near N Scotland with SW-lies gradually losing its grip over the next 3 or 4 days as HP builds over England 1030mb Mon 11th, with warmer air from the S being promoted by TS Dexter still out on the Atlantic. Dexter heads for Biscay and tangles with LP over France so by Sat 16th HP has moved north 1020mb Shetland while E-lies and LP affect S England. There is then a general collapse of pressure over Britain and slack LP covers the country through to Fri 22nd. At that point a narrow ridge of HP in the Atlantic is holding off a deep cold LP 965mb S Greenland and a hurricane of similar pressure off New England.

ECM - like GEM

GEM - TS Dexter heads for Britain, filling, so the HP Mon 11th is shortlived and a period of generally LP over Britain starts around Wed 13th. Later,  HP arrives more strongly from the SW and ridges across N Britain as in GFS by Sat 16th.

AIFS - London, maxima rising steadily to 30C Mon 11th/Tue 12th, and dry; then dropping back to maxima around 25C with small amounts of rain through to Thu 21st. Edinburgh, a slow rise of maxima from about 18C to 23C over the next two weeks (one hot day Mon 11th), very small amounts of rain at any time.

GEFS - in the S, near norm now, mean rises to 5C above norm Tue 12th - Sat 16th (op much warmer than that), slowly dropping back to norm by Sat 23rd (op has another hot flush Wed 20th). Small amounts of rain in some ens members from Wed 13th. In the N, same temp profile but mean only 3 or 4C above norm, and no hot outliers. Tiny amounts of rain at any time, just possibly a little heavier after Thu 21st

The models are still wrestling with the actual track and rate of filling of TS Dexter but there seems to be a generally agreed outcome that it will generate a warm spell next week, also dry at least at first.

Plenty of interest for me, although it looks a bit messy and probably not long lasting.

Perhaps, as they look out at a parched and desiccated land (or a green one, in a few lucky places) they have had enough of unending warmth and semi desert weather? Maybe a few more general public pennies will drop in this country after this summer. Probably not.

Yes, the good thing is the sun is losing strength and that ECM seem less keen 👍. The end of a drought is always the worst bit of it. Unfortunately, here, that end looks like being some time away still.

You need to get above 30 for people to take an interest.  

Looks like a 3 day affair though, and the demise of Dexter is still causing some problems

Just for Darren ICON 06z has the 20c isotherm over his house

https://modeles12.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/run/icon-1-117.png?6 

ECM very different to GFS with a much briefer hot spells restricted to the South then possibly much cooler and more unsettled afterwards. Even the latest GFS only really has a heatwave in the far south and then places further North might be looking at 25 - 27c which is respectable but nothing too exciting if you are a fan of really hot weather.

It may be losing strength a little, but it's lower overall angle will just help sear more of you. 

No mad weather on the models as far as i can see with higher pressure being the bigger influence over the next couple of weeks. 

We're seeing peaks of 6 UV now rather than 8, which makes a difference. It's also generally below the burn threshold by around 4:30, which is nice... the sun's now 7 degrees lower in the sky at solar noon and again, it's noticeable. 

I'm still amazed the heat fans aren't swarming the thread TBH.

The 12z outputs of the raw MetO and GFS really ramp up the heat down here - GFS has 28, 29, 31, 30 here for Monday to Thursday next week (with an onshore breeze for the 31, too) and the MetO raw has 25, 26, 25, 26, 28, 29 for tomorrow onwards, again with an onshore breeze for much of it. I'm sure there'll be some 32s further inland and that, you'd have thought, would have been enough to encourage the heat fans to get excited - it's well into heatwave territory and will feel very oppressive as the humidity rises.

I'm not good at finding such stuff on 'wetter'. So I'll go with the MetO app which has it peaking here on Tues at 25C, with 24C on weds. I can just about bear that. Like you say, the sun is getting lower so the heat not as searing or lasting so long each day.

I wonder if most people have had enough heat for one summer.

The 12z GFS is atrocious from my POV - it doesn't show on the TWO rendering, but there's a 34 at one point and five days in a row of low 30s, in the south of the UK, with temperatures still in the high 20s after that. 

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/33/19859/150_582UKxai6.GIF 

I can only hope it's wrong, but it's being very persistent with its heat at such a short range.

EDIT: There's another even worse heatwave towards the end of the run. 36!

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/27/14562/384_582UKmjk9.GIF 

Red hot end to 12z run....

Met Office long range is hinting at a change early September. Looks like the rest of August will be mainly dry and sometimes hot. Roll on Autumn as this has been a trying Summer for farming round here , Drought , heat , Flies, Dust 🤢

ECM OP isn't as awful as the GFS OP. Dark reds, like in far GFS FI, give me the creeps these day.

GFS going for a lengthy period of hot weather. 34C being reached on consecutive days next week. 

Yes, I see it even has a 34 here next week (as per xcweather's rendering), which fills me with dread. 

It's sod's law, as it looks like we're going to get the ground-baking slow build up of heat via our extension of the Azores High - as I've said before, it takes a lot to fall into place from mid-August onwards to get into the mid 30s, and GFS is certainly gunning for it.

The MetO raw is closer to what I suspect we'll end up with - it has a run of 28s and 29s for Heathrow, for example, with the odd 30 coming and going between runs. 

The other thing I've noted is that both GFS and MetO raw forecasts have magiced up a 7 UV index for the next few days, which is most unwelcome IMO. 

One thing's for sure - this "everything just happens to work out in favour of a heatwave" effect will be nowhere to be seen in winter, when it comes to snow!

GFS Op 00z; Currently W-lies with LP to the N and HP to the S; this pattern disrupted by TD Dexter which although filling  as it approaches Ireland nevertheless pumps up HP 1025mb England Sun 10th. This HP moves a little E-wards which with remnants of Dexter brings up very warm air from the S Tue 12th, which continues until Thu 14th with small possibly thundery areas of LP embedded. Atlantic LP near Iceland disperses this with a return to the W-lies - but with pressure dropping on the Atlantic the chart for Mon 18th is very similar to that for Sun 10th. Another burst of heat and then back to the W-lies by Fri 22nd.

ECM; similar to GFS though the warmth from the south doesn't last much beyond Tue 12th, and the weather goes back to a W-ly influence sooner - but here unlike GFS pressure is higher esp in the S and a flow from the SW makes the weather look warmer.

GEM; as GFS to Thu 14th but the LP from Iceland then sticks around in the form of a broad trough down the N Sea persisting to Mon 18th with light N-lies; the W-lies do not return and any HP is stuck firmly just W of Ireland.

AIFS; London, rising to a maximum 30C Tue 12th then dropping back to around 25C (short burst of extra warmth Wed 20th) and almost no rain throughout (but the S coast stays mostly around 20C with remarkably little difference between day and night). Edinburgh, rising to low 20s for a few days from Tue 12th then dropping back to mid-teens Tue 19th with rain around that date.  The heat seems to fade out somewhere near the Scottish border.

GEFS;  In the S, a heat wave up to 8C above norm Mon 11th - Fri 15th otherwise mean temp near or a little above norm though op stays well above. Dry, one or two ens members toying with heavy rain after 21st. A similar temp profile in the N but with the peak flattened somewhat and small amounts of rain from time to time.

A hot spell nailed on for early next week but the three main models handle the breakdown differently