Even Moomin would have to admit that he was way out for July (CET 18.4C). Looking ahead things still seem mixed in terms of pressure patterns, temperatures etc. Some warm weather looks probable especially in the south, interspersed with more unsettled conditions. All rather typical British summer style with a storm thrown in for good measure.

Struck me as odd that the BBC and the Met Office were forecasting heavy rain for all of the Country in the next few days. Seems unlikely in the South East if not elsewhwere.

The 6z GEFS mean still shows spells of 850s above 10C- one around 7th-10th and one for a weeks or so later. Very little rainfall is modelled for the SE. ECM 0z which only runs to T+240 shows a settling down with a bit of a 'sausage high' (Tom LeBas) developing at the end. these easily develop into plume-fed hot spells.

Yes, it seems we're back to the usual summer fayre down here - taking the scraps, what's left after the rain has soaked the rest of the country.

GFS has a whopping 1mm of rain down here during the storm on Monday while the MetO raw has nothing at all - in fact the MetO raw has no rain at all for the next 7 days, whereas the GFS has some tomorrow. 

Both the MetO and GFS show a sunny and warm/very warm spell developing thereafter, with GFS offering 30s again by Saturday.

(FWIW, the much-vaunted summer of 76 had a top temperature of just 27.9 in Faversham in August, the month was positively cool by modern standards with a mean max of just 22.4. The 91-20 mean is 23.1 for comparison!)

GFS Op 00z; after Storm Floris has done its worst (985mb Hebrides Mon 4th 1200; barely a ripple in S England) HP re-occupies its customary position from the southwest but soon flattens out with steady W-lies dominating until Mon 11th. The HP then pushes towards Scotland (1030mb Thu 14th) and England has a spell of E-lies while continental LP flirts with the south coast (notably Tue 12th and Mon 18th). Elsewhere, the potential hurricane referred to in the dedicated thread comes to nothing, while pressure remains mostly high over Europe except for areas of LP in Ukraine week 1 and in E Baltic week 2.

ECM; this model is more hurricane-friendly. The current disturbance off Carolina becomes a fairly rapidly filling LP caught up in the W-lies, passing N Scotland 995mb Mon 11th. Then a much more potent hurricane (impossible to count isobars) W of the Azores Wed 13th while HP stays put over Scotland.

GEM; like GFS (doesn't believe in hurricanes ATM) until after Mon 11th when the HP instead of being focused on Scotland is part of a ridge from Iceland to C Europe, with LP mid-Atlantic and nibbling at the SW

AIFS; (it will be interesting to see if this model based on pattern matching can cope with hurricanes which arise unpredictably)

London; after a little rain tomorrow, slowly becoming warmer to a set of maxima 25C+ w/b Sun 10th, before dropping away with a little rain from Sat 16th. Edinburgh; maxima not much above 15C to Sun 10th, heavy rain at first and continuing with some rain - then a couple of warm (23C) dry days before dropping back with  more rain.

GEFS; In the S, cool on Wed 6th then rather warm for a few days around Sun 10th, possibly as far north as East Anglia before the mean drops back to norm ca 13th (though control remains an outrageously hot outlier). Minimal amounts of rain but in some runs from the 10th. In the N, also cool on the 6th but no heat wave to follow, mean remains stuck to the norm throughout; some heavy rain tomorrow with Floris after which only bits and pieces intermittently. 

Some insanely warm (at the 850hPa level) runs in the GEFS 00Z today. 

There have been a few occasions recently where hot weather appears on GFS only for it to flatten out considerably closer to the time. I'm certainly not convinced yet on this one. Probably the most likely outcome is a short sharp spike sometime around the 10th. 

I'm not convinced either. TBH, the Glorious Twelfth / Perseids peak is the "flip switch" for me. If summer isn't firing then I start looking forwards to the autumn.

What I know is the dreaded push backs since mid July which mean Models are always 100% wrong if push backs kept persisting. Earlier on they were showing nice early August to start with but then this deep bog standard low appeared from no where on their day 10 chart for tomorrow date back on 25th July charts as that time was showing HP over UK.  Gave up with this summer now since no reliable model cannot predict when we actually get a settled summery weather to arrive?  Know a boy who cry wolf many times? Sorry I don’t believe next week fake warm runs until I see outside in the morning to see if going to be nice.  

GFS Op 00z; once Floris is out of the way (to Scandinavia by tomorrow), pressure builds briefly from the south before another LP 985mb passes N Scotland Thu 7th. Then a period of more or less consistent W-lies to Sat 16th, LP to the N (dipping further south around Wed 13th, possibly related to what looks like the remains of TS Dexter moving across from the USA). The HP then changes its angle of attack, forming a ridge from mid-Atlantic across N Scotland and by Wed 20th is far enough north for E-lies in the Channel and LP from France threatening the S Coast.

GFS also shows a hurricane moving up the E Coast of the USA Sat 16th but it continues directly N-wards with no obvious influence on British weather.

ECM; similar to GFS though overall pressure remains higher

GEM; also has a W-ly cast to the weather but troughs come further south than either of the above, Sat 9th and especially Tue 12th, LP centred 1005mb Scotland.

AIFS; London, maxima rising steadily to 30C and dry to Mon 11th, then back to a steady 25C with a little rain. Edinburgh, maxima mostly upper teens with brief spells above 20C Mon 11th and Fri 15th, after today when rain is heavy, small amounts of rain at various times.

GEFS; In the S, cool now but from Wed 6th a long period with mean temp consistently 3 or 4 C above norm, and an unbalanced spread of ens members, mostly near mean but multiple runs showing temps up to 10C above norm. Very dry. In the N, stays on the cool side to Mon 11th, then again mean above norm but a significant number of hot outliers, occasional small amounts of rain, more likely after Fri 15th.

Endless dry weather I can live with but being baked and seared as well is no fun. Fingers crossed it's not both.

Dry weather are much welcome for this area been too wet and no summery since 13th July.  It doesn't look very hot on the 00z ensembles but more like gentle warm weather after this boring LP out of the way but hope this LP finally break this bad pattern out of the way since 13th July and join what Lapland enjoying so far that will end on Tuesday to back to high teens average temps mean good for UK to have their turn now.

Absolutely belting 6Z GFS op run for the heat lovers. Bring it on!

It's been producing these hot runs repeatedly and they haven't materialised. Ecm is very different.  Latest AIFS 6z is also meh.

Although a brief hot spike is possible in about a week. Ecm repeatedly not interested.  

Yes it's been doing this all Summer and once again on the 12z. I don't know what has happened to it as I used to rate the GFS highly but it seems to be broken this Summer. Be interesting to see if there is a Winter equivalent of this where it constantly predicts cold spells all Winter that don't materialise.

12z GFS gives a prolonged heatwave in the south starting with an hors d'oeuvres at the end of this week, intensifying the following week. This signal is being quite consistent and also creeping a little closer to the RTF. Thr GEFS mean hasn't rolled out fully yet but from 12th it rises over much of England to around 27- doesn't sound spectacular but remember this is the mean of 30 + Op.

BBC monthly outlook is talking about possible heat stress in the south and the MetO longer outlook indicating a signal for more HP influence and higher temperatures. Summer 2025 could be remembered for wrong and right reasons.

You mean, like every winter 😆

GFS Op 00z; Storm Floris away up the coast of Norway; the weather drops into a W-ly (and later SW-ly) pattern  albeit with a small kink in the isobars on Thu 7th.  HP moves up from the SW 1025mb E England Wed 13th,  at first with warm S/SE-lies but declines as a new HP develops to the west and winds go round to the north Sun 17th. This HP holds off an ex-hurricane which heads for Iceland, but that brings tropical air to circulate round the 'top' of the HP so the N-lies become quite warm by Tue 19th.

ECM ; the SW-lies mentioned above are enhanced in this model by remnants of TS Dexter, still an identifiable feature 995mb S of Iceland Mon 11th. HP only briefly to the east Wed 13th, moving back to the Atlantic sooner than shown in GFS with less emphasis on N-lies. 

GEM has TS Dexter as minor trough with W-lies still dominant; then when the HP develops on WE 13th, it does so further N with E-lies for England.

AIFS; London, maxima rising to 30C by Mon 11th and dry then back down to 20C Sun 17th with a little rain. Edinburgh maxima high teens to low 20s until Fri 15th, occasional rain; then mid-teens with rather more rain.

GEFS;  in the S mean temp soon rising to ca 3C above norm, staying there to Sun 17th before dropping back a little, outliers amongst ens members tend to be hot ones at first. Several runs have rain Wed 13th, mostly very little but with one exception; otherwise rather dry. In the N, mean temp cose to norm, slightly below for week 1 then slightly above, and ens members quite close to mean (though op and control depart from mean Mon 18th - in opposite directions !) Small amounts of rain intermittently

GFS less settled this morning but ECM seems to have joined the heat brigade. UKMO looks pretty warm too.

GFS completely ignoring TS Dexter compared to other models as early as day 3, both the op and nearly all of the ensembles. Either the other models are wrong or the GFS current output can be thrown in the bin

Dexter causing problems for some models. Looks like it will give us a mini heatwave for the south

latest GFS still doesnt have Dexter.  No point looking at the rest of the run then

Heatwave part IV  for the south at least.  

https://modeles12.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/run/icon-0-120.png?6 

and moving on to become another major storm for N Scotland by Mon 11th