looking at ECM day 10 ens even that is no guarantee. the high seems to be sinking further and further south and perhaps all of us now exposed to the atlantic jet and low pressure.  Of course september, like it often does, could revert back to settled warmth.  

FAX shows a front sinking south across England tomorrow Thu 31st reflected in the Meto rainfall chart as a band of thundery showers clearing the S Coast by evening. The next front crossing Britain front W to E is due for Sun 3rd, augmented by an extra trough in the N but again reflected in the rainfall chart as fading out in the S. The FAX chart for Sunday also shows an LP developing  as this second front trails over the Mid-Atlantic - see below.

GFS shows HP to the SW, as so often recently, with winds from W round to N (though it doesn't pick up showers on Thu). On Mon 4th a small disturbance on its N edge runs across N England/S Scotland 1015 mb deepening markedly 990mb as it moves to the N Sea but little effect on S England. Pressure rises behind this feature, briefly, since LP then moves in from S with some hot air but instantly cancelled by LP from Iceland, the net result being an elongated trough over Britain Thu 7th. HP then resumes its familiar presence in the SW, and after deep LP brushes N Scotland, the weather is back to quiet NW-lies by Mon 11th and continuing to Thu 14th.

ECM similar to GFS, though the disturbance Mon 4th is delayed by a day.

GEM has this disturbance much deeper at 975mb but also further N (Shetland) so little effect  outside Scotland. The trough on Thu 7th is broader but is mainly populated by hot air from the south.

GEFS in the S has mean temps near or occasionally below norm at first, then slightly above norm from Thu 7th, though at that time there are a few hot  or very hot outliers amongst ens members including the op run,; mean is brought down by a majority of cooler ones, Small peaks of rain at intervals in the next 5 days then dry. In the N, temp profiles similar though without the really hot outliers, and small amounts of rain at any time to Fri 15th, just a few ens members showing heavier falls around Tue 5th and Wed 13th

AIFS for London has maxima around 20C to start with and rain on Thu 31st, then dry with maxima steadily rising to low 30s Tue 12th  and dry before dropping sharply with rain. For Edinburgh maxima stay in high teens  to Sat 9th with rain probable on Mon 4th, then briefly warmer before a big drop on Wed 13th.

Variations on an unsettled theme for a week, especially noticeable in the north, before resuming the pattern of HP out to the SW which has become so familiar

The profile for the 3 months would be 17   18+   17

A middle loaded month to be more exact- perfectly symmetrical and on a graph, a normal distribution.

The only argument for 'front loading' might be that June was more significantly above average.

My point would be that all 3 months were above average. 17 in August, whichever 30 year mean you use, is above average. 

But- as Beast pointed out -that August 17 might not be achieved of course.  At that range the models will not claim high confidence.

I've noticed that similar synoptics to earlier in the month are producing notably cooler temps; I think the recent rains moistening the soil here and over the continent are having an important impact and preventing temperatures from getting as high as they would otherwise.

The rapidly lowering sun angle in August has a surprising impact after the first 12 days or so. We increasingly depend on importing hot air for high temps after about 12th.

Still notable differences with Monday's disturbance. Nonetheless, it looks potentially a significant feature.

Also looks potentially very warm and dry across the far south, whilst further north across the midlands it’s wet and much cooler 

It's about this time of the month now when 'true night' begins, if even for just a few minutes or so. 

The recent “unsettled spell” hasn’t delivered here at all, and my pond has all but dried out. Whether we’ll catch much tomorrow, on Friday or from this feature early next week remains to be seen.

These sort of features are not that unusual in August. Still remember about 3 or 4 years ago when we got hit directly by one. A wild night. 

Looking forward to August. Still summer but you begin to know it is on the wane, and those August evening twilights are are like no other. Morose and eerie and a little reminder that Autumn is on its way. 

Yes, I mentioned this a couple of weeks ago (when the heat lovers were still excitedly posting about the AIFS etc). Once you've got damp surfaces it takes a heck of a lot of energy to dry it out - energy which would otherwise go towards heating the ground. As I said, it's no coincidence we got that 35.8 after a long dry spell, when everything was dusty and arid. The exact same synoptics and temperatures aloft would still hit 30 or 31, IMO, even taking into account the lower sun angle (61.7 degrees on the 1st July vs 56.7 degrees today).

The change where we rely more on imported heat and you notice the sun become weaker is around the 20th August down here - it goes below 51 degrees then. It's reminiscent of what happens in February, where there's a marked uptick in solar strength around the middle of the month (and later further north). 

It's still not over in terms of heat potential, of course, and we'll doubtless see some more very warm weather at some point in August or September (maybe even as soon as around the 8th, if GEFS has its way). The clock is definitely ticking, though, and each day that goes by makes those mega temperatures - the mid 30s - increasingly unlikely. Today's rain in the south won't help heat potential either, of course!

UKV 03Z looks nasty on Monday. I wonder if this could be a named storm?

GFS Op 00z; HP out to the SW continuing with winds from W or N to Sun 3rd (today's shallow trough with heavy showers is only a small dent in the isobars and will mostly be noticed in the SE), then it sinks S-wards Mon/Tue to allow small intense LP to cross N England 1005mb deepening as it goes. The HP is back again immediately after, but splits off a cell 1020mb NSea Thu 7th with a warm/hot feed from the S which becomes a short-lived trough, and then back to the pattern of HP to the SW as so often this summer.

ECM; similar to GFS - the feed from the S on Sat/Sun 9th/10th is less direct and ends up with a shallow LP 1010mb S Britain.

GEM; differs from the above with a deeper LP 985mb Mon 4th but further N, near Orkney, and then on Thu 7th although the shallow trough is present, it only affects the north and there is no direct feed of warm air from the south. Then back to HP in the SW but further off than GFS.

AIFS; London, maxima about 20C with some rain to Wed 5th then dry with maxima rising steadily to 30C Sat/Sun 9th/10th before dropping back. Edinburgh, maxima in upper teens to Sat 9th with rain around Mon 4th; warmer for a couple of days then back to 20C with a little rain

GEFS; in the S, mean temps up and down to Thu 7th then settling near norm to Sat 16th but with the op and 2 or 3 other ens members very warm Thu7th/Fri 8th, a little rain at first otherwise dry. In the N temp mostly below norm until the 7th, one warm day on the 3rd, then near norm with only the op suggesting heat for the 7th/8th. Heavy rain Tue 5th  and occasionally wet in some runs after that. The N/S boundary is somewhere around Birmingham - Sheffield

To me is yawn fest and too early for silly names and most are bog standard low doesn’t deliver a single interest than my memory of real storms I experienced in the 90s in form of thunderstorms and what I saw in Chicago and Nicosia before.  Models had been very poor this summer and did not perform well with 3 last heatwaves predicting 5 to 7 days and mid 30s was cut short dramatically when they realised some features in very short range pop up out of blue that models not picked and moved goal posts hoping we did not notice it.  Currently is mostly sunny with runaway heat of 30C at Santa Claus’s so how come UK miss out a decent long heatwave set up like 2018 did?  They staying warm and this unwelcome Low have no impact to them as well. 

Summer returns on the 00Z GFS with several 30C+ days and the 20C isotherm making a brief return across the south.

We've had a good fall of much-needed rain here this morning - walking to the pub yesterday evening I noticed how dry and wilted many of the hedgerows are, with lots of trees looking quite autumnal.

I agree (though with evaporation in the, what, 5mm per day range with sun or wind, 0-2mm under still cloud?) it takes a lot of rain to cool soils. Plus the rain must be warm this year and there has been very little rain in the SW and West Midlands. We've had 35mm of rain in July but it's all just vanished (and things are noticeably dryer now than on July 1st) and I don't get the sense it is that which has made it a bit cooler recently. Double that would have put drought and heat on hold 70/31 = 2.25 mm per day.

I wonder how hot it will get it Kent if we get a hot spell? To be fair though, some of the highest temperatures recently have been around the semi desert of Exeter and SE of Dartmoor.

For me, that would be a very sad sight to see. There is little good news in the models for any plants, or the environment, in your area.

Well we have had a good soaking today, 15-20mm on local PWSs. Although GFS suggests that's more or less our lot for the next 10 days.

GFS Op 00z; HP sinking back further SW with small but deep LP crossing Scotland 990mb Mon 4th.  From then to Sun 17th, the HP is back again, winds mainly W-ly, with occasional interruptions (1) a shallow trough with continental influence for the south Thu 7th (but not the strong hot S-ly predicted yesterday) (2) a large Atlantic depression S of Iceland 975mb Wed 13th moving through quite quickly but with enough power to bring cool air to all but the S coast for a couple of days.

ECM; After Monday's feature passes through, the following pressure rise is weaker than for GFS, with LPs south of Iceland 990mb Fri 8th and 1000mb Mon 11th giving a cooler W/SW Atlantic feed for all of Britain

GEM; like GFS (it now agrees that Monday's LP will cross Scotland, previously it was going for further north); Thursday's trough is there but more of a non-event; indications that Wednesday 13th's LP might come further south

AIFS; London, maxima rising from 20C to 30C Sun 10th (but one-day only at this level) before dropping back; a little rain early and late in the next fortnight. Edinburgh, maxima mostly high teens, but mid-teens around Tue 5th with rain, spots of rain at other times.

GEFS; In the S, temps down -up -down - up, some 3C either side of  norm to Thu 7th, then so much spread of ens members as to make prediction worthless (mean is a degree or two above norm, and the op puts in a hotspot 8C above norm Wed 13th but other runs that day are 5C below). Perhaps a shower tomorrow, otherwise very dry. In the N (Scotland, and England north of about Leeds), the initial oscillation is there, but from the 7th mean is closer to norm with much less spread of ens members. Significant rain Mon 4th, occasional bits and pieces later.

So we have a named storm in early August. Floris it is ......

https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2025-08-04 

I've created a dedicated thread for Storm Floris:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/Posts/t24402-Storm-Floris 

This thread had slipped all the way to page 2. 

Looking at the GFS 12Z, a very settled spell coming up after the storm early next week, and even that seems to be pushing away ever northwards.

GFS Op 00z; Storm Floris for the north of Britain has its own thread; effects in the south are forecast to be minimal. After that storm moves off, quite quickly, pressure rises but makes only a brief effect away from the S coast as the weather slips back into W-lies midweek. Pressure rises more generally from Sun 10th, but transfers to the North Sea 1020mb Tue 12th. For the week following there is a contest between this HP and a large LP; to start with the LP is far enough off to bring in S-lies and warmth but then it bumbles around off the west of Ireland, close enough for unsettled conditions esp in the west. Finally it moves in to cover the whole of Britain 995mb Mon 18th, having imported some rather cool air.

ECM; midweek is more unsettled with LP close to W Scotland, SW-lies rather than W-lies and quite strong, then the HP arrives a day later i.e. Mon 11th

GEM; until Sun 10th as GFS but then keeps the HP  as a broad ridge across Britain and on into the N Sea, with only the far north seeing unsettled W-lies.

AIFS; London - maxima rising reluctantly to a peak 28C Tue 12th before dropping back to low/mid 20s with some rain. Also a little rain from Floris. Edinburgh - maxima at their highest (20C) now and around Mon 11th otherwise mid/ high teens. Rain from Floris, small chance of more FRi 15th.

GEFS; in the S mean mostly near norm; cool days now and Wed 6th - a clutch of warmer outliers Fri 8th and Wed 13th but not enough to shift the mean. Mere traces of rain now and then. In the N, temp profile similar (omitting the outliers on the 8th), significant rain Mon 5th from Floris, small amounts of rain at different times in different runs thereafter.

ECM very different this morning.  looks like Moomintroll was right all along. Front loaded summer and now perhaps even an early autumn.