Indeed. it beats me why anyone who likes sun would complain about this summer - at least in the south. It's been incredibly persistently warm and several months this year have broken sunshine records.

Thankfully tonight's models aren't showing the same risk of scorching heat for the SW in early August. Thank god for that because, with next to no rain forecast at any range, scorching heat would be very damaging for the countryside and water supplies.

Poor ECM again for heat fans. Very consistent though. Is Summer already over?!  Also potential for a nasty storm for Scotland

It's on its own though really.  AIFS 12z is a proper scorcher. 

GFS 0z builds the high pressure from around the 6th, the highest temps back up to the low 30s in the South and South West. 

Eyes on the ECM for any consensus...

ECM ENS and GEFS both continue to look favourable. Obviously too early to be at all confident, but it looks like there is a reasonable chance of HW4 (or at least a period of very warm weather) developing during the second week of August.

GFS Op 0z: HP still the main influence for this week but out to the SW, so winds from a direction between west and north. Throw in FAX which also shows weak fronts crossing Britain and the prospect is often cloudy with light rain. After a local small LP clears NE Scotland Tue 5th, the HP cell moves NE-wards from Wed 6th 1030 mb N Ireland and continues on to Shetland 1030mb Sun 10th by which time winds have gone round to the south with hot and possibly thundery weather for England. The S-lies introduce a brief trough lying trough the Irish Sea before a new HP cell comes in from the SW.

ECM: the HP revival on Wed 6th is short-lived as a depression 1000mb S of Greenland approaches Scotland on Thu 7th, and the HP is 'flattened' mainly affecting S England. GEM also takes this view.

AIFS: London, maxima low 20s to Mon 4th with occasional rain, then dry and much warmer, maxima 31C from Fri 8th. Edinburgh, maxima high teens to Wed 6th with occasional rain, then only a modest rise in temps to 23C on Fri 8th before dropping sharply with more rain.

GEFS: in the S temps generally close to norm until Fri 8th (slightly below at first, slightly above later) then although the mean is a couple of degrees above norm, several ens members incl op and control rise to 10C above norm by Tue 12th. A little rain around Fri 1st, least in SW. In the N, rising and falling  3 or 4C above and below norm to Fri 8th, then slightly above norm but without the really hot outliers. Spits and spots of rain at various times, mostly in the NW.

'Traditional British summer'  for this week; models differ on the chances of a hot spell later next week.

ECM sticking to its guns.  Pretty cool and wet for all.  

Let them they all very poor and rubbish models lately either showing extreme temps or extreme wet never materialised just end up bog standard pattern all the time. 

GFS 12Z has a nasty looking storm hitting the UK in early August.

It wouldn’t surprise me too much to be honest and I tend to perceive August as an early autumn month based on the weather in recent years., which tends to turn as or before the schools go back mid month.

It certainly seems to be this LP that changes the pattern of HP out in the Atlantic enabling it to build in more strongly over the UK. Pretty much the same end game as the 0z, perhaps not quite as strong an HP or as warm 2ms but some 30s shown again.

Will be yawn fest and so boring set up that we see nearly all year round.  Not sure why the inaccurate models continue to churn silly charts?  30C in Lapland today so where our summer gone?

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2025072812/ECM1-192.GIF?28-0 

GFS Op 0z; HP to the SW keeping UK weather dry and settled for the most part, though with winds circulating round the 'top' of it, the direction of the weather is from points between W and N so not hot. The HP has weaker patches Mon 4th as it is displaced by a trough  1010mb which works its way across N England to the N Sea (but not the storm suggested in previous posts) and perhaps Thu 7th with continental LP nudging S England, and finally gives up Tue 12th with LPs to N & S joining forces and depositing LP which covers Britain 1010mb Wed 13th.

ECM; insists on the idea of a deep depression crossing Scotland Tue 5th 985mb Moray Firth but very localised (it won't be noticed in England). On Thu 7th there is a shallow trough from Iceland to Spain, not just a nudge.

GEM; Like GFS but the LP Mon 4th/Tue 5th stays well north (gales for the Shetlands, though) and on Thu 7th the HP has moved E-wards allowing LP with hot and maybe thundery air a larger influence on S/SW England as the continental LP links with a developing LP mid-Atlantic

AIFS; London, maxima mostly low 20s to Wed 6th with some rain Fri 1st - briefly warmer then dropping back but dry to Wed 13th. Edinburgh, maxima high teens to Sun 10th, then cooler. Periods of significant rain approx Sun 3rd, Sat 9th and Tue 12th.

GEFS; in the S, mean temps a little below norm to Mon 4th then a little above with a spread of ens members but no great extremes. Best chance of rain Fri 1st but not much even then. In the N temp profile similar but most though not all runs persist with rain at intervals after the1st (In the NW esp Tue 5th)

The HP which has been with us so long is becoming like an uncertain cyclist - wobble, wobble, and then fall off

Looks pretty warm/hot for Southern areas into next week

GEFS 0z mean 850T was comfortably above the 10 line.

The 6z Op is doing a dance again with surface maxima in the upper 30s at the end. 

That 6z run must be what all the newspapers are using to base their forecast of a 40c heatwave on. Meanwhile the Met office LRF suggests near average temperatures with a small chance of a heatwave.

Its so annoying we don't get to see what happens after T+384.

I feel like 12 hours after would be very interesting. My guess is 2m temps would be widely up to 42C and a few spots as high as 44C.

Obviously total nonsense, but one of the most extreme charts I've ever seen.

The Cairngorm snow row kicked off on 03/08 last year. Will it be beaten this year? This is the link to keep an eye on:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/tracker/snowrow?type=daily&location=Cairngorms&days=7#Cairngorms 

UK Met Global

TS 's outlook on Beeb forecast puts the HP in the same reluctant position until 8th August with 2 lows of significance marching swiftly W-E across the N but then the HP taking over; this is reflected in the GFS Op.

A 17+ August would give us a top tier summer. A front and rear and middle loaded summer no less.

No it's looking very much like a front loaded Summer once again. 17 in August would be fairly ordinary. Apart from some heatwaves in the second half of June and first half of July, the rest of Summer has been fairly average although with a complete lack of cooler than average weather which is why the CET will suggest the Summer has been better than it has been. However we haven't had the sustained UK wide heatwaves of the past classic Summers such as 76, 95, 03 and 2018.

Of course it will depend where you are as it feels like it has been a very SE centric Summer and the further NW you go the worse it has been.

(Currently it's very poor here for what should be high Summer)

Wonder why i see it every now and then?  (not sure how to embed an image on here!

https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/8gwzikouidk2f8x2cgo8u/Screenshot_20250729_195049_Chrome.jpg?rlkey=4g643tv9dcxq9s1v9fvgl6k5d&st=jfgdsf5w&dl=0 

I've just made a few changes which should stop that happening. 

July the worst offtending month that often very poor and last decent July was 2018 that contained more than 10 days full sunshine, i rate them 10/10 that time and last time to be good one.  12z ensembles for here is a boring one nothing of interest so far.