Somebody is going on Holiday and is wishful hopecasting🤣

Or the exceptional rains of Oct 2000  and even recent autumn's like 2022 and 23 

No, I'm reporting what AIFS is showing 

GFS Op 00z - current LP off into the N Sea by Wed 23rd followed by a week of westerly weather, HP and fine in the S, LP close to the N and unsettled there. Wed 30th sees a new LP move in from the NW to affect all of Britain, centre 1000mb Scotland on Thu 31st. Back to the W/NW-lies by Mon 4th.

ECM  - like GFS but the HP in the period leading up to Wed 30th is larger and affects more of Britain but only reaching 1015-1020mb

AIFS - London maxima ca 20C with some rain to Thu 24th, dry and a little warmer until Thu 31st then cooler with a little rain. Edinburgh similar trends but overall cooler.

GEFS - mean temp near norm through to Mon 4th with good support from ens members, rain for a few days now but mostly dry thereafter in the S, greater chance of occasional rain in the N but never very much.

I just moved a post and replies to the breakout thread. 

👍

Can you post a link to this mythical thread because I can never find it

The ICON 00z was very warm for next weekend with the Azores push and  a direct feed of warm uppers. Lets see it its still there on the 06z 

As expected a total bust here. Light rain and drizzle ,no thunder. It all went far east. Terrible m.office forecast 

Here's the link:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/Posts/t24393-Model-output-breakout-thread 

We need this badly for all models to accurately be on board to bring back much needed settled summery spell while we are on the peak time.  It already outstayed it welcome for boring unsettled weather did no favour at all and taking chunk of potential summer peak time.  The issue is stupidity  Low over south Greenland are interfering the Azores HP to move in and centre over UK so need to do one. 

The Stupidity Low is in indeed the fly in the ointment currently. 

Surprised no comments, but this does feel a bit like after the Lord Mayors show.  

Pub run is not too bad and the AZ is always close and ends in another potential August heatwave

I'm amused the way you flip from not wanting heat to wanting it! 

From the point of view of someone who hates heat the outlook is tolerable - average to warm, a splash or two of rain, no sign of any stupidly high temperatures. Aside from the high dewpoints (something seldom mentioned in any forecasts) it's useable weather.

Incidentally the MetO raw continues to be a couple of degrees higher generally than GFS down here and so far the MetO has been closer to the actual temperatures - we seem to have settled on a spell of 23-26 down here which, in the 80s at least, would have been considered a summery spell!

GFS Op 00z shows the current LP slowly moving N-wards and filling by Wed 23rd (MetO indicates showery conditions for England during this time, but rain, frequently heavy, for S Scotland tomorrow before settling in as a band down the W coast of Scotland to the IoM. Then there is a brief spell of W-lies, with pressure quite high (1025mb) near S England by Sun 27th. This is followed by a general rise of pressure to Wed 30th before a thundery-looking LP moves up from Spain 1005mb to the English Channel Sat 2nd. After that it's back to the W-lies.

ECM is a fairly close copy of GFS but keeps LP on hand near Scandinavia so that although pressure rises over Britain from 27th there are N-ly winds close to or over the E coast 28th and 30th. GEM  agrees with ECM in that respect.

AIFS for London has maxima ca 21C with rain at times to Fri 25th, then warmer (maxima ca 24C) to Fri 1st when cooler with more (light) rain. For Edinburgh it predicts maxima in the upper teens to Thu 31st, then a little cooler; rain quite heavy for a few days and then small amounts at various times.

GEFS keeps mean temps close to norm generally through to Tue 5th, though the spread in the south is more noticeable with the op run some 5C above norm towards the end. Rain for the next few days anywhere, then becoming confined to the north with further wet spells esp around Mon 28th and Sun 3rd.

It is just a case of respecting what the weather brings you and adapting behaviour accordingly. Shade rooms from direct sunlight. Cool bedrooms by opening windows at night before going to bed. An extra pillow can lift you up a bit and improve your natural cooling. Keep up those fluids. What's wrong with a "cold water bottle"? My £4 USB fan is keeping me nicely cool today. 😁

GEFS is looking quite dry after the next few days. Also it looks like we may not be done with the heat IMO.

If this idiot low south of Greenland that had been there since end of May that prevented last 3 heatwaves with predicted 5-7 days and mid 30s temps kept cancelled to 1 or 2 days each time. Santa Claus in Lapland are having far much better heatwave duration than here with temps high 20s to 30s.  We need this low to sod off to allow UK wide prolonged heatwave while we still have few weeks left for peak summer.  

I've just moved a post (and its replies) to the breakout thread where it is better suited. 

6z Op bears this out and there are more members further out reaching higher. For some runs now the purple mean has more or less hugged the LTA black line and it's just starting to twitch higher. Sadly part of this is the extreme bits of the Op - how many times has this option modelled a 20+ 850 isotherm this summer? It's just beginning to again, and none of these have materialised. But we seem to get 30C surface maxes even below the 15 now.

OT bit: Even the last few rain events here leave dusty soil surface after just a few dry hours but at least damp vegetation reduces fire risks.

I wouldn't be surprised to see some more of those mega runs over the coming days, but even though we're now approaching the hottest part of the year, statistically speaking, a couple of things will make it a little bit harder for it to actually happen in the real world:

* We're now a month past the solstice and the sun's losing 0.4 degrees of altitude every 2 days - bear in mind from the 9th June to the 2nd July it only varies by 0.4 degrees.

* There's been some quite widespread rain and more to come, meaning more moisture to temper the heat. We need dry soils for the really high temperatures to appear. (It's no coincidence that when we broke 35C the other week everything was dusty-dry).

Neither of those things rule it out, of course, but as I say - it makes it a bit harder for it to occur. 

Yes and also the met office LRF only mentions a very low or low chance of very hot weather to mid-August. I'd be surprised if we get above 35c again this Summer, if it does happen it will probably have to be in the first half of August given the model output for the rest of July, as after that it would need something of an extreme pattern to develop.

I'm still tweaking the 850 hPa temperature scale. Which version is better: 1 or 2? (The difference is in the 5°C to 10°C range of the scale)

Definitely 1.

2 is awful from my perspective of colour deficit.

2 seems more logical but in practice 1 is clearer.