Me too! Will be around Settle way by then, on the MTBs, fingers crossed. 

Talking of "passing plumes", GFS has a 32C max on Friday!

Plenty of high-20s on the cards too.

Arpege 6z still only 28c though. 

Another excellent AIFS,  can we count it down? We could when it picked up the previous heatwaves this summer.

Azores heat pump for the 06z GFS.  probably easily reach 30,  humid as well

I've just added a collapsible Image Controls panel to most of the TWO chart viewers. It allows you to adjust brightness, opacity, contrast, and saturation. The settings are saved (if local storage is enabled), but you can reset them at any time using the Reset to Defaults button.

A rather less settled set of 12Z runs today. High pressure struggling to take hold.

What? Drier than zero rain. 😂🌩Not seeing that much there so will be fingers crossed again for Saturday.

Comments on colour vision moved to breakout thread in Forum Arms

MetO rainfall radar predictions much as yesterday with a pulse of heavy rain moving N-wards up the east side of England early Saturday, and then another up the west later. But now Monday joins the unsettled theme with a widespread occurrence of small but intense showers. Small depressions on a stalled front shown on FAX yesterday have been replaced by a significant LP centred Cornwall 993mb Sun  20th, which fills slowly but with troughs hanging around through Monday.

GFS Op 00z - agrees with above, with LP centre on Sun deeper 990mb,moving to the N Sea Wed 23rd with light N-lies following. A brief ridge  of HP collapses allowing W-lies through to Mon 28th; HP approaches from the SW but retreats only just about affecting the south. Then a general drop in pressure, with a broad area of LP over Britain or the N Sea until Sat 2nd, not much in the way of windy conditions or localised rainfall but a general tendency to import cool air from the NE.

ECM - similar to GFS; the HP from the SW gets closer 1025mb Brittany Sun 27th but unlike this model yesterday doe not proceed to dictate British weather

AIFS - a  big difference from yesterday when it predicted a heatwave (30C+) for the beginning of August in the S. London: a couple of warm days now,  then as with other models a dip in temp (max 20C) with rain for the weekend but not specially heavy, then maxima mostly low 20s C but cooler than that at the end of the month, 18C on Wed 30th. Edinburgh: also a couple of warmish (23C) dry days to start, then rain for an extended weekend with maximum temps progressively dropping to 15C by Wed 30th though mainly dry.

GEFS - Widely, briefly warm then mean temp at or slightly below norm to end of month, well supported by ens members with rain quite definite 19th-22nd and cropping up in a number of runs after that as well esp in the N. 

Next weekend looking less good again. The tendency for pressure to rebuild from the south seems to be fading on most output. 

Is this the best short range forecast for rain in the S.E. corner since January? Could we crack the 10mm barrier? 50mm would be even better.

GFS toyed a couple of times in the last few days with runs that had the general theme of digging a trough south from around the middle of next week, and now the last two ops show this outcome.

AIFS also has that low, but in all its runs has kept it further north (to varying degrees) that what GFS is showing now. The 18z had it affecting the top half of the UK before moving away and high pressure building over the country (centred over Ireland). The 0z keeps it initially further north, but then troughs it southwards to our east. The result is that high pressure is kept out to the west/southwest. It's close enough to keep most of the UK mostly settled (barring perhaps the far east), but the airflow is from a northern quadrant and pretty cool (850's of 4-8 generally, although to perhaps 12c at times in the SW)

i think you are more likely to get a good soaking than here looking at the Met O radar predictions. However i do not think they are that accurate in this sort of developing thundery type set up. Better with frontal rain going west to East 

 Looking at various rainfall predictions there is quite a variation where the most will be🤔

6z's (for next weekend (26th) onwards):

GFS - continues the 'trough getting far south to cover whole UK' theme

AIFS - back to high pressure centred close by to the SW, bringing dry & sunny, but with temps mostly suppressed to low-/mid-20's

For my holiday in Norfolk GFS actually isn't that bad, westerlies are good for Norfolk.  AIFS though half heartedly builds in the HP and Norfolk ends up with north westerlies. Ideally we need the HP to build in strongly like it was on yesterday's output. 

Agreed! For the sakes of both our holidays!

Sorry, I've had to delete a number of posts this morning which I wasn't able to move (I know the reason and will resolve later). The breakout thread for OT discussion is here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/Posts/t24393-Model-output-breakout-thread 

I’m surprised there isn’t any discussion of the potential for disruptive rainfall from the early hours of tomorrow morning across much of eastern and some central areas.  The set up looks classic for thunderstorms with some absolutely torrential rain delivering 50+ mm in places. Falling on rock hard ground that’s a recipe for flash flooding.

GFS Op - LP centre dipping to SW Ireland 1000mb tomorrow Sat and swinging NE-wards into the N Sea by Tue 22nd. Then a period of W-lies but with HP advancing close to the SW at times before retreating  allowing cool NW-lies Sun 28th. The HP then re-groups and moves to cover Britain 1025mb from Fri 1st. A suggestion of LP from France affecting the south Sun 3rd.

ECM - similar to GFS; the LP hangs around the N Sea a day or two longer after the 22nd.

AIFS - London: after today a period with lower maxima (ca 20C) with rain to Thu 24th, then dry and warmer for the rest of July (say 23C), cooling into August. Edinburgh: again a warm day before cooler with rain (maxima high teens), temps  continuing at that level but dry to end of July.

GEFS - In the S, mean temp dropping to norm tomorrow and staying there or even a little cooler to the end of July, well supported by ens members; rain fairly certain for the next few days but not as heavy as MetO suggests; rain cropping up randomly in some runs thereafter. In the N, a slower transition of mean temp from a little above norm to a little below, milder again at the start of August; rain again in the next few days and possibly another burst around 29th

Yes. those complaining about lack of rain are about to get their wish and then some.  Looks horrific for the home counties

I'm struggling to remember the last time we had 'horrific' rain here in the SE...1999 perhaps? GFS (00) has some welcome rain in time to coincide with the hosepipe ban, hopefully this is accompanied by some thundery interest. Then followed by a few unsettled days and from Wednesday its a case of rather tame Atlantic influence, a few small fronts passing through but mostly mild, usable weather before silliness resumes 1st Aug. 

ECM much less settled right up to the end of the month where it seems to fall in line with GFS. 

So who's going to win out?

Probably one of the most interesting periods of model watching for a long while but eerily quiet on here. 

Flash flood do not end a drought. Besides, flash flood that haven't happened yet aren't even flash floods.

I mentioned it yesterday I think and suggested a separate thread could be useful.