I wrote the above a couple of days ago. And so it turned out to be - Brian has noted the wind, which was indeed more noteworthy than the rain (just 0.6mm here, others will have had less).

If I was scoring the models from say 4 days ago, they'd get 10/10 for the modelling of the wind, which was picked up a long way out, 3/10 for the modelling of the rain, which evaporated as we got closer, and I have to give another 10/10 for temperature modelling - the high here was 22.6, a rounded 23.

The next modelled rainfall for the south is Saturday and it’s one of those messy affairs from the south which IMHO often turn out to be a mish mash of nothingness 

Arpege though not interested only 28c on Friday and lower on other days. Interesting difference at such close range 

12z GFS back on side for high pressure to increasingly dominate from the south As we move through next week.

 AIFS still on track.

AIFS 12z gets the HP in at day 8. Another good run

Still waiting for this rain. Pathetic forecast for here.

Same here , gusting 40 mph +😒

That is the last thing we need . Hopefully it wont happen. The South needs a good soaking for a couple of weeks.

I just saw that. ECM seem keen on a decent amount for London. You can bet that will be London west though!

Longer term looking increasingly hot as the azores high pushes in. this weekends rain is welcome

Monster heatwave on the AIFS 0z. This run goes very hot but it is consistently building in HP . 

AIFS has had a remarkably good summer is it ahead of the game again?

A pleasant outlook on this morning's GFS, with the jet trending south of normal and bringing some normal-ish days down here once the heat of the next few days has gone, and even one genuinely cool day. I suspect it's undercooking the temperatures somewhat though due to the rain it's forecasting - something which has been noted many a time on this thread!

The MetO raw is less convinced, churning out the same old warm to very warm outlook, plenty of sun and just the odd chance of a shower. I reckon the MetO raw will be closer to the mark, but I'll be delighted if the GFS turns out to be right instead! The heat-fans have had a cracker of a summer so far, it'd be nice for those of us who prefer the other side of average to get a bit of action.

ECM is similar to AIFS, so that's good for Summer fans.

Met O rain radar( I don't know why I bother with this as it's so often wrong) - Today a band of persistent rain in the Channel for Cornwall to Cherbourg (it needs to come ashore instead of watering the fishes) then some interesting action over the weekend with two bursts of heavy showers approaching the south coast (1) Friday night, coalescing into a larger area of rain moving north across London to East Anglia in the early hours of Saturday (2) Saturday morning, again coalescing but this time moving up the Severn Valley. And some moving E-wards along the Channel midday Sunday.

FAX - backs up the above with a stalling front lying N-S across central Britain with waves developing on the front and moving north along it e.g. a centre of 1002 mb Midlands midday Saturday

GFS Op - brief ridge of HP before LP developing over the weekend 1000mb Cornwall early Sunday (i.e. a day later than above, and less focused), drifting into the N Sea by Tue 22nd. This introduces a period of W/SW-lies with the return of HP and hotter weather from the SW, though not as dominant as in previous heatwaves this summer with its centre staying out to the west of Biscay. Then on Tue 29th LP dips down from the NW to become centred 995mb Clyde, and a broad trough covering all of Britain followed by W/NW-lies. At the end, Fri 1st, HP revives to the SW (can this be described as a zombie HP? it keeps coming back to life)

ECM - GFS with variations; the weekend's LP described above put back even later, to Monday 21st; and then the Azores HP returns more strongly and closer, centred 1025mb SW Ireland Sat 26th

GEM - closer to GFS, and with LP to the NW beginning to develop earlier, by Sat 26th already 995mb Iceland with trough extending to Scotland and the Azores HP stalled in mid-Atlantic unlike ECM

AIFS - London; temps reach 27C Fri 18th, then a dip for a couple of days with a small amount of rain; from Mon 21st a remarkable linear increase in temps from 18C to 32C on Wed 30th. Edinburgh; briefly reaching 23C this week then again a dip with some rain to Mon 21st - but in contrast to London maxima are the almost flat at 20C through to Wed 30th. A quick scan suggests the dividing line in temp profiles occurs a little to the north of York.

GEFS - In the S, warm this week, back to norm over the weekend with some almost heavy rain Sat 19th - Tue 22nd, then mostly dry with mean temps staying near , even a little below, norm to Wed 30th (contrast ECM/AIFS) (The op enjoys a couple of days as a hot outlier Sun 27th). In the N, a very flat temp profile, just above norm at first, just below later, with remarkably good ens agreement. Rain around Mon 21st, less later on but never really going away.

Still a "wait and see" scenario IMO. That said, there is a signal for drier conditions >23/07.

Oh Yes lovely , just add to the on going drought in many parts which is at or approaching 76 levels. 

When I saw that Darren was describing the output as "pleasant" my heart sank a bit, but it's actually not as bad as all that :)

My focus is currently on next weekend as I'll up in the Dales and hoping for dry but not too hot and definitely not too windy conditions.

GFS doesn't look too bad on that score, with the wettest conditions held further north. It's also now just about within range of ECM and GEM. ECM looks a tad more HP dominated than GFS, while GEM is definitely worse.

'Drier'? Between you and I, there are times I think this thread is populated by sentient cacti. Thankfully the various model outputs don't seem to show a return to blistering heat. If we could just get to mid August without more such heat before a late summer fine spell both nature and cacti might be happy.

Saturday to Tuesday look unsettled most will see rain, perhaps quite a lot in some areas. 

The GEFS seem pretty set now though on a gradual downtrend in temperatures and a generally unsettled period whereas by the sound of it the other models are more keen on a return to hot dry weather. Kind of the opposite of a few weeks ago when the GFS was constantly churning out mega heatwaves and the other models were being more sensible.

Perhaps just a skewed perception, but I always find the last part of July to be duller and wetter than the first overall. 

EC En suggests another potential heat source building over western Iberia beyond a weeks time. Perhaps plume potential thereafter. 

Clear signal on the ECM ensembles for HP to return 23rd ish. How hot is less clear.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=ecm&var=23&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 

GFS seems quite bullish on a real soaker this weekend whereas the high-res models are less so. 

Towards the end of next week, GFS seems to be building in high pressure a bit more convincingly than the 00Z (so far)

It does look like it "might" rain in the driest areas over those days but i will believe it when i see it . As it is approaching from the south i am a bit more optimistic.🤔

Passing Plumes leading to Thunderstorms is o.k. and more normal than these Heat Domes to use modern Meterological parlance which i have seen enough of.