So no return to blowtorch conditions in the immediate future then? That's a relief.

I know you're looking at the same week as me (now coming into range) 😉

I also see HP moving in from the SW in that day 10+ period ('FI') and it's been showing a few times. Hopefully the trendsetter.

Indeed , no certainties yet but a fairly good signal from ECM for HP to build in around 23rd. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=ecm&var=23&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 

Looking at the GFS 6z run it does look rather wet and also relatively cool at least away from the SE in the next 10 days.

Probably a case of wait and see , doubt the models have a good handle on the next week . Messy.

Unless it's tidal of course and we don't know the tide times!

But seriously you are right. Absolute chaos doesn't have easily definable system inputs and outputs- it truly appears random. Whilst there is always uncertainty about the weather, there are always large and small scale factors that make things happen as they do.

Shame we can't get some rain in the lull from the heat. All a bit uncertain but no chart predicting significant rain here in the next two weeks.

looks like the blowtorch back on for the south GFS 12z 

The best run for Summer fans in a while.

ECM completes a decent set of 12s. Fingers crossed this unsettled spell doesn't last to long. 

Indeed. The 12zs seemingly are starting to sniff out potential heatwave No. 4. Time will tell. But perhaps the rinse and repeat nature of this summer will continue.

For weeks the models had been showing very high temps so need to come to fruition asap due to date now as we are mid high summer and not to have unsettled weather take too long that waste chances for high temps.  Most last 3 heatwaves had been cut down from original 5 to 7 days sunny and low to mid 30s being downgraded severely and restricted to few boring suspect areas got high temps.  This recent heatwave was supposed to be very hot to the weekend failed to materialised I only got 2 full sunny days and very warm temps instead.  It an ok summer but wish models be more accurately on duration of a hot spell and remove restrictions so allow all areas join in.  If they start showing heatwave 4 I appreciate that models don’t cut backs, make snide shortcuts or attempt to degrade it for us.  If heatwave 4 going to be either 3, 5 days or week long heatwave just stick to this duration. 

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/leys.jpg 

Today will be the coolest day for quite a while, but it's still average - you would expect 23 by day and 13 by night this time of year, going by the 91-20 average (the older 61-90 averages were 21 and 12 respectively). 

For the remainder of the forecast temperatures are above average, and it's still a generally dry outlook - perhaps some showers today, and in borderline FI, but nothing to write home about.

Beyond that? Well, the MetO outlook says that further hot spells are looking somewhat less likely than they were, but there's no sign of a return to normal, let alone a cooler than average spell.

The 1-minute mean here so far is 19.7, and that tells the tale: a very warm month so far, becoming less so as time goes by but still remaining generally warm as far as one would dare look modelling wise!

Further north and west, as ever, things will be different. 

The MetO rainfall radar predictions published only a few days ago have failed to validate. Previously they showed heavy rain for Wed & Thu for southern counties but any of that remaining is now headed for N England and Scotland. These charts now show Wednesday's rain dying in mid-channel, but offer clumps of heavy pptn moving north into S Britain (esp SW) on Sat and Sun 19th and 20th.

GFS Op 00z - current LP N England moving E-wards and filling followed by brief ridge of HP before another Atlantic depression arrives Sun 20th 1005mb Ireland, slowly drifting N to Scotland and introducing a W-ly regime which lasts until Fri 25th. Then more HP from the SW as so often this summer, but less intense, only attaining 1025mb Biscay by Wed 30th. The source of air for this period is mid to south Atlantic , so warm but not markedly hot.

ECM - similar to GFS but the HP arrives a day earlier, Thu 24th, and looks to be building more strongly (1020mb covering Britain Fri 25th)

AIFS - London - max temps steadily rising to 28C Fri 25th then dropping to 20C or thereabouts for the following week; some rain Sat/Sun 25th/26th, lesser amounts in the following few days before drying up. Edinburgh - rain today, then as London temps climb (but only to 21C) before dropping with rain for the weekend; then maxima 15-20C with a little rain.

GEFS - temps a little warmer later this week before mean drops back to norm and stays there to Wed 30th, ens agreement no worse than usual. Best chances of rain Mon 21st in the S, but occurring at any time in the N.

It does not inspire any confidence in their predictions .. i am going back to using the old methods of predicting rainfall.😎

Problems i find with them:

Often show full sun when there is cumulus build up so should be sun and cloud. 

Rainfall is overestimated.  As an example, this morning was showing rain all morning for here, but hasn't rained a drop so far. 

Temperatures are better though.  There is less blended ensemble temps at range, so heatwaves show better in the 5-7 day range, more in line with the models rather than increasing as the day comes nearer.  Not perfect but better. 

They do pretty well, but not in slow moving 'slow wormy' situations the models foresee atm - but none of them do so. Plus, the old methods don't work so well with a new climate. I think all we can say is it looks slow moving for the foreseeable and, thankfully, extreme desiccating  heat looks unlike over the same timescale too.

I'm not at all confident we will see much rain until the Autumn. September used (used?) to be our driest month...

Just noticed you are including Edinburgh on the AIFS DEW. Very useful, thanks for that 🙂

The 0z GFS and AIFS paint a broadly similar picture of low pressure inching SE'wards from Thursday, bringing some unsettled weather from the NW (as per usual, the further SE, the less unsettled)

Then, as we move through next week, high pressure once more building from the SW or S, and covering most of the UK by around t+300.

Airflow won't be as warm, but temps in the S/SE still getting to high-20's (possibly early 30's, given the residual heat). Further north (Liverpool/Manchester/Leeds/etc) mid-20's. 

I'm going mountain biking up north w/c 21 July... so I fully approve this message!

AIFS 6z turns into a beauty,  HP builds in very strongly over most of UK. Hopefully this trend grows.

👍

Does so earlier, too - by around Wed 23rd, high pressure from the SW is ridging over almost all the UK (the low from the north makes less southwards progress beforehand). A further low moves eastwards to the north of the UK, bringing some more rain to Scotland and the far north of England next Thursday. The high then rebuilds with gusto and drifts eastwards 

GFS less good. The low initially gets pushed back northwards by +168, but the further low that AIFS keeps to the north of the UK is showing on the GFS as deeper and tracking further south, then spawning a secondary that moves across the southern half of England. Finally, as the high builds back from the SW, GFS has a new and quite vigorous low steaming in from the NW right at the end.

Very much hoping that AIFS is on the button here!

The chance of dry periods seems to increase during the last week of the month, at least in the south. This shows the most recent four GEFS updates. That said, there's still uncertainty about how much rain will reach the south east during the "unsettled" period.

Really notable wind here today in Thurruck Essex...interesting few weeks ahead before autumnal teasers ...hard to be confident about the outcome...

That's a good point. It won't be making the news but it has been very windy today.