The static version is below but I suspect you knew that already. 😉

Not a technical term, but the GEFS 12Z update is looking a bit more wobbly tonight.

I thought I had read that copying the link would now be a static link but I obviously got that wrong and the link updated. 

ECM tonight seems to be staying very warm/hot. GFS continuing the less warm scenario on the 18Z by the looks of it. 

the control is better. All depends on the strength of the jet and the azores ridge. Models seem to be trying to work it out

GEM looks similar. 

We are in good summer this year since 2018 just hope August don’t cut off and continue the theme since Spring into October with short unsettled blips.

GFS Op 00z - On Mon 14th LP centre is 1005mb N Ireland with broad trough across Britain. This moves back NW-wards allowing HP to resume from the south Thu 17th before the LP re-approaches Scotland next weekend. It again moves back to the NW allowing HP to dominate England Thu 24th before it gets across to the northern N Sea Sat 26th 990mb. Once there, it introduces a spell of cool N/NW-ly winds while any HP slides off to mid Atlantic

ECM 12z (I'm going out and the 00z hasn't fully loaded yet) - After Thu 17th, the LP does move back but in the direction of the SE approaches.

GEM - similar to GFS

GEFS - temps dipping below norm for a day or two around Tue 15th, recovering to a degree or two above norm for the fortnight following, though op and control both show a transitory peak Tue 22nd. Tiny amounts of rain at any time in the S, rather more in the N/NW. AIFS has more rain in the S than the N.

Yes it's been a beauty so far hopefully it continues. 

Both AIFS and ECM also have heatwave conditions returning Wednesday/Thursday next week.  Looks UK wide as well.

Wave 4 ecm 20 uppers about 60 miles from the south coast gfs has a change of heart too what a summer!!

Imo it's been awful so far, hopefully it will relent and we get something closer to normality. But I hardly dare look at the models for fear of what I will see - dust, standpipes, dying trees, drying rivers.

Fantastic so far, and lots more summer left, and if the overnight runs are anything to go by it continues! I haven’t seen ECM yet

It's not for everyone I understand that. Would be nice to have a thundery spell for some variety. 

Yes Too much. Nice to have a decent Summer but what we are experiencing this year especially in the South is Climatically different. If it was a 1-2 year blip like 75-76 that is to be expected but if  conditions like this  go  on getting more frequent then there are going to be serious problems.

At the moment the process involves using the new Copy Image button in the header. You paste the live image URL and press copy to get the link to the static. Not a problem though, live images can still be posted as before. 

Indeed. August '22 was the same - it was (to a long term weather watcher like me) weird, climatically different. This is a mega repeat and too soon for any comfort. We do face serious problems and watching the models gets more and more concerning.

It is looking a bit more unsettled and cooler  after this Heatwave but not greatly so for the South.

06zs dropping out. ICON continues the theme of Tuesday depression being chopped in half on Wednesday  by a ridge from the South and the high to the North. 

GFS so far going the same way. 

Tuesday looks like the day to throw open those windows and let the natural a/c chill all your houses. 

No way this heat and humidity can last all summer. Even that famous long summer of 1976 had cooler, unsettled spells within it. What made them significant was the fact that they were short lived though - it's the heat and dry that everyone remembers.

P02 is today’s GEFS blast furnace on acid run. 

42C in Cheltenham next Sunday. Looks nailed on 😅

Just looked at the run of maxima on that P2: 33, 31, 38, 42, 39, 40, 39... and then 21!

Five 100F+ days in a row, I don't think I have ever seen that on any GEFS run.

If that happens I'll eat my hat.

I'll not eat my hat, but it is unlikely according to the current output. In fact, recent updates have asked more questions than they've answered. Let's see where the 12Z updates go. 

Since June they been showing those high temps for a long while without given up so sooner than later it will come off as now we near mid July. 

12Z GFS looks fairly warm, high 20s next weekend but low pressure trying to get in still.

GEM is a weird run. Very slack but low pressure just disappears. Looks rather warm too  

You are right Briggsy. June's high CET was almost entirely down to the heatwave starting 23rd. July's 18+ was down to the heatwave in the first week. Only August provided steady, prolonged warmth.

June 2025's heat was down to heatwaves in the latter stages. July has lacked the prolonged intensity of 76 at the start but seems to be pulsing heatwaves. I reckon we'll be head and shoulders with 76 for June/July, then August remains a mystery until.