Stay OT. If people want to discuss air-conditioning then open a thread in the FA. It doesn't belong here. 

The ECM aggregate precipitation charts are available on TWO and elsewhere. Here's the 10 day aggregate from today's 00Z Op run. 

That is always the form horse for breakdowns after a hot spell. The ensembles play around with alternatives to a large cool down after an Atlantic front which keeps the overall average temperature up in the charts, but nearly always (in recent years) the early, steep drop wins out.  

This is an impressive snapshot from the GFS 06Z for 17 July, if you ask me. There's pretty much no polar maritime air in the North/Northeastern Atlantic whatsoever on this. Even a straight westerly would be quite warm and humid for the UK.

It looks like even Iceland will be getting a heat wave too. The North Atlantic snapshot would suggest mid-to-upper 20s across much of Iceland. Truly remarkable charts!

What's your evidence for a widely unsettled pattern for the end of July into August... or are we just going by the broken clock theory? 

The Met Office are also going for a more unsettled end to July. But the teleconnections are suggesting HP may take control again as AAM rises. Probably will define the Summer

Thanks, yes based on Met office LRF and also the GEFS are trending that way in the extended range.

(Unfortunately some people are very quick to take offence and point the finger if you merely suggest it may become less warm and more unsettled.)

We're in Devon late July/early August from the 26th and the start of that has just come into range the last day or so.

Both GFS and AIFS show the 'all very 2025' picture of the AH re-establishing itself over the southern half of the UK (at least) around the 24th/25th.

I'm very much hoping it happens!

Yes we're in Norfolk at the same time really hoping we keep the heat. 🤞🤞🤞

Overall the pattern remains as it has been for a few days now. Hot for the next few days then cooler and more unsettled for a couple of days before warming up again. The models are still suggesting 30°C+ is possible in the Moray Firth area tomorrow.

Little sign of a cool July and even those pushing that agenda have pulled back on it, albeit somewhat reluctantly with a rewriting of history.

Beyond the 10 day period, as ever, anything is possible. There could be more heat down the line but that is very much in TBC territory.

I'll commence  one there Brian. It'll help avoid cluttering up this thread. 🙂🙂

6Z GEFS has a more notable "cooler" cluster in the long term dragging the mean to about 10-11C for London in 10 days vs 13C in the 00Z set. But it also has several in the 20s and one breaching 25.

It's more the posts with completely unsubstantiated claims, to the point when it takes another more helpful poster to supply the evidence. This could have been avoided if you'd actually quoted your source(s).

For what it's worth also, the GEFS aren't especially unsettled in the longer range especially further southeast, suggesting a split may be favoured once again. Even areas further north and west don't look too bad, just a more slack and (hopefully) thudnery pattern with showers, rather than any dominant trough scenario.

I'd go less hot rather than less warm, too. Even in the less settled scenarios many places look above average if not well above at times. 30C plus never too far away with the rising uppers post the breakdown 14/15th.

For the SE Icon went less warm (under 25 but over 21) for a day and then back up again

Just when it seemed settled that the low was exiting east GFS has the ridge just about holding it off...

This GFS run the classic SE England has adopted the climate of Northern France run so far. Never really cools down, even slightly favourable synoptics send temperatures close to 30 degrees. This has definitely felt like the first definitive AGW era summer to me down here, unremarkable synoptics give high temperatures, baseline has been lifted. Different to 2022 even which required an extraordinary synoptic pattern, I think some of those station and CET records could last many decades even with the predicted warming

I haven't looked at temperature charts yet but was just thinking the GFS really traps low pressure over us. GEM looks very warm. All very much up in the air after the middle of next week.

Indeed it's amazing how terrible a chart can look and still produce high 20s (in the SE) this year.

Plus dry ground and that we get more sun these days in part due to less aerosols it seems. Also SSTs are really high - which will impact Autumn as well. I think we should also be mindful that we are yet to see 35C despite all the charts we've see posted herein - long may that continue. If we could get to mid August without getting to 35C I could perhaps sigh with relief for my country and countryside for another year. I am a little hopeful (no more) it wont happen.

I'm fine with a little AGW, but it will not stop unless we stop adding GHGs to the atmosphere. That is the sobering reality.

GFS brings the 0C isotherm across the whole of Scotland later in the run. 30C to snow on the tops in the space of two weeks?

UKMO and ICON, and to a lesser extent GEM look to prolong the warmth, albeit it possibly quite volatile with showers or thunderstorms knocking about.

Again, GFS goes quite cool (comparatively) and unsettled, but currently looks a little bit isolated.

ECM will be interesting this evening to see where the trend may be heading.

The normally cautious BBC is mentioning thunderstorms as a possibility on late Sunday and Monday

Are you sure? That looks like a 2m max temp chart showing 26c in the SE?