They haven’t updated Brian any ideas?

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmhr.aspx?run=00&charthour=39&chartname=2mtmp_uk&chartregion=uk&charttag=2m%20temp 

Neither have the meteogrames perhaps an ecm issue?

Anyway ecm mean looks good at T144 some uncertainty at T96 seen on the spread around south of Ireland im guessing the clusters have an issue with low energy and type of formation in that area and the push from the s/w

I would think no major breakthrough most favour HP hold off

The data files for the Op run aren't available open source yet this evening. AIFS has been complete a good while.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmhrai.aspx 

👍

MOGREPS-G 12Z on balance looks more changeable through the middle of next week. We'll see whether that's maintained tomorrow.

Amazing really London very handy link 

https://media-eu.invisioncic.com/k333824/monthly_2025_07/IMG_9554.png.7ce455c728916b1d2b1d61099fd05f32.png 

Ps don’t copy and paste

IFS is appearing now.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmhr.aspx 

A trend now emerging for a more generally unsettled regime from 20th. 

Will the school holiday curse strike yet again this year? 

Although my comment will probably be deleted again, the GFS trend is more unsettled, but the UKMO looks decent this morning with further hot weather looking possible.

GEM isn't as unsettled as previous runs, and ICON looks ok(ish).

Will be eagerly anticipating the 0z ECM to see where there is heading.

There is a bit of a trend towards something more unsettled, but mainly on GFS, and mainly north and west, with the southern areas avoiding much rain again.

In fairness and I have been critical of you recently. This is a much more balanced post, taking into account all models without making sweeping statements.

Yup, ECM 0z joins the unsettled camp, but its not excessively so, and predominantly further north.

So UKMO is the best if you want a continuation of dry and hot, but the others are looking a bit more changeable now, but doesn't look like a terminal decline to the unsettled pattern I had initially anticipated.

I think we are likely now to see repeated bursts of hot and dry, interspersed with shorter unsettled spells, but not exceptionally wet. Staying warm to very warm in the south too. Perhaps a CET for July may be above 18c after all. Too early to say.

GFS Op - HP steadily moving to N Norway 1025mb Sun 13th with E-lies developing (the dreaded Haar for the E Coast) and at the same time pressure dropping over England 1010mb in from Belgium and similar from the Atlantic over W Ireland. These two LPs merge into a centre which bumbles around off NW Scotland for the following week, to Sun 20th, with a SW-ly cast to Britain's weather, the usual pattern, unsettled in the NW and fine in the SE (but not as hot as currently). On the 20th this LP dips further south before moving off to Norway and trailing (shock! horror!) cool N-lies on Wed 23rd. But HP then resumes from the SW as so often this summer, though looking less firmly established with small (thundery?) patches of LP embedded up to Sun 27th.

ECM - the same sort of pattern as GFS but more influence from LP as from Sun 13th, developing a centre 1000mb N Ireland Tue 15th and associated lower pressure for England. The main LP centre first retreats somewhat and then returns as a trough stretching NW-SE down to Cornwall on Sun 20th

GEM - echoes GFS but although pressure is on the low side by Sun 20th, there's no sign of any northerly developing.

AIFS - London, peak heat tomorrow  at 31C (Sat), then maxima steadily dropping and in the range 20-25C from Tue 15th with frequent but small amounts of rain for the next 10 days. Edinburgh, peak heat now with both Sat and Sun at 25C, cooling but reviving to 22c Thu 17th, thereafter in range 15-20C. Rain in blocks,  Tue 15th, Sun 20th and  Wed 23rd

GEFS - In the S, warm (+5C from norm) to Tue 15th, then a dip before a long period with mean 2 to 3 C above norm, though with very little agreement between ens members from Fri 18th onwards. Very small amounts of rain randomly in a number of runs from Tue 15th. In the N, much more above norm to start with, but then the same dip and recovery; rain in most runs from the 15th  and moderately heavy at times, less so in NE

There's a big contrast. 😂

Interesting ecm 96 breakdown of sorts only around 8% of the clusters from the 12z showed this being this conclusive.

mean and spread will be interesting soon

I agree with the overall synopses from others this morning. A general trend to less settled looks likely but not definite. At the moment on GFS, July 18 appears to be the critical date where uncertainty increases. Despite the messy picture, rainfall totals indicate a continuation of the NW/SE split - though perhaps less extreme than it has been. The GEFS does indicate temperatures generally staying warm nationwide which very likely will translate to hotter and less hot spells alternating.

The ECM 0z mean looks hotter and more settled than  the Op.

As I expected ecm mean looks much better ecm

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=120&mode=1&map=0&type=1&archive=0 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=144&mode=1&map=0&type=1&archive=0 

Still quite a lot of uncertainty early on perhaps more clusters gather and opp is one of them

Invert this and I'd be very happy with the profile for cold weather were it January or February.

It's awful.

Every day of heat and no rain mean more likelihood of: fires, increasing numbers of dead trees, dried up rivers, stressed humans, stressed animals, water restrictions. And it's perfectly possible there could be six, ten weeks more of this - though low pressure could drift east at some point. It took two years for nature to recover from August '22 and here we are again but worse...

This is a wake up call. It's time for us all to back anything that reduces greenhouse gasses.

agree dreadful stuff, never thought id be buying a portable vented ac unit in this country. but here we are. prices extortionate and low stock.

My ex and I bought one of those right after the 2003 heatwave.

How do you mean it took 2 years to recover?

As for reducing carbon emissions,  there needs to be global agreement which is impossible.  the Israeli wars and Ukraine must also be responsible for pumping vast amounts into the atmosphere let alone everything else and volcanoes etc.  

Its probably too late now anyway. So just enjoy life while we still can. 

Anyway back OT, the ECM op looks potentially very wet for you. Be careful what you wish for!  

I doubt it, that's not what I see in the models. This is not the UK climate as we knew it.

I suspect any other comment are too far OT but I will post to the wildlife thread.

The 00Z GEFS brought back the much cooler dip on the 15th that had almost been dropped yesterday. After that it's becoming more spaghettified and uncertain.

Looks like a cooler snap Monday and Tuesday, then the NW/SE split pattern re-establishing perhaps for another week or so, and then after that maybe a more widely unsettled pattern for the end of July into August (however a long way out and could change still).

I think 76 will just about retain it's crown as 'the Daddy ' of hot Summers when looking at the overall CET for the Summer however it's perhaps 60/40 at the moment.