Dunno about temperatures,  but GFS 00z this morning has zero precipitation for a large part of central southern England (and hardly any for almost the rest of England and Wales) for it's entire run.   

Originally Posted by: Essan 

Dunno about temperatures,  but GFS 00z this morning has zero precipitation for a large part of central southern England (and hardly any for almost the rest of England and Wales) for it's entire run.   

Originally Posted by: Essan 

It's the most bonkers summer run ever. I write this looking out over the dusty plains from a Madrid hotel room, and the GFS conditions are worthy of the Meseta.

Today is the most humid it gets in the entire run, and it's hardly sauna-like. The daytime dewpoints in central England on this run are: 12, 8, 4, 5, 4, 1, 6, 7, 7, 7, 6, 5, 2, 0, -1, 3. 

Originally Posted by: TimS 

It's the most bonkers summer run ever. I write this looking out over the dusty plains from a Madrid hotel room, and the GFS conditions are worthy of the Meseta.

Today is the most humid it gets in the entire run, and it's hardly sauna-like. The daytime dewpoints in central England on this run are: 12, 8, 4, 5, 4, 1, 6, 7, 7, 7, 6, 5, 2, 0, -1, 3. 

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Pretty much every other models is much more unsettled this morning.  Most keep it very warm especially in the SE . Could be some big thunderstorms on the way. ⛈️⛈️⛈️

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

I would call it astonishing, we are have almost been locked into a pattern since the end of March. 

I am assuming (lack of knowledge) those dew points are quite rare? 

If this pattern were to continue into winter, who knows what may happen with the coming winter, may be a slightly different to what we have been used to ! 

Originally Posted by: TheJudge 

One - I'd bet money on the pattern not continuing into winter... it never does these days! Heck, it'll have been 5 years since there was snow on the ground at 9 AM here next winter.

Two - those dewpoints are similar to those modelled in 2022, and combined with the heat literally sucked the moisture out of plants and trees. Next door's cherry tree has never been the same since. 

Three - yes, such dry air and low humidity in summer is very rare here, normally our heat is much more humid (see a week or so ago, when dewpoints reached the 20s widely in the south and SE). 

Originally Posted by: Retron 

One - I'd bet money on the pattern not continuing into winter... it never does these days! Heck, it'll have been 5 years since there was snow on the ground at 9 AM here next winter.

Two - those dewpoints are similar to those modelled in 2022, and combined with the heat literally sucked the moisture out of plants and trees. Next door's cherry tree has never been the same since. 

Three - yes, such dry air and low humidity in summer is very rare here, normally our heat is much more humid (see a week or so ago, when dewpoints reached the 20s widely in the south and SE). 

Originally Posted by: Retron 

I first saw such an event in 2022 (I'm 67 btw and a life long weather watcher), three years later another is being modeled. 1976 was dry but (as I remember it) not as plant dessicatingly so. And we need to remember it's early July not early August as in 2022 - sobering.

Originally Posted by: Devonian 

One - I'd bet money on the pattern not continuing into winter... it never does these days! Heck, it'll have been 5 years since there was snow on the ground at 9 AM here next winter.

Two - those dewpoints are similar to those modelled in 2022, and combined with the heat literally sucked the moisture out of plants and trees. Next door's cherry tree has never been the same since. 

Three - yes, such dry air and low humidity in summer is very rare here, normally our heat is much more humid (see a week or so ago, when dewpoints reached the 20s widely in the south and SE). 

Retron wrote:

Thank you for the reply.

But you could argue that very few of us would have believed the weather pattern we have had would materialise back in late March? Furthermore, continue the way it has. The likelihood this will continue into winter is almost negligible. But,and I say but, you never know what may come.

Yes regarding 2022 the leaves dropped like it was autumn, I have noticed recently it has started to occur again in my neck of the woods. This may accelerate over the coming week, although there is a little uncertainty after Monday 

Brain called this weather  weeks and weeks ago with his hunch 👍so far he has been bang on, maybe he can pass over by private message this weeks lottery numbers 😉 

Originally Posted by: TheJudge 

One of the persistent worldwide features of our warming world seems to be midlatitude "heat domes" with very warm dry air aloft that presumably, when the conditions are right, sinks downwards to the surface. See wildfires in Canada and NW US. But then we also get the stinking humidity at other times. This morning's GFS run gives us heat dome conditions. Previous runs (and ECM etc) don't, they're much more about slow moving shallow high/low pressure typical of the dog days.

To some extent we must always have been prone to something similar, just much cooler. Our geography allows for dry Saharan heat to build up over Iberia, tip over the Pyrenees with a mini-foehn effect in SW France, and then head up towards the channel largely unencumbered by ocean. The same geography also helping to generate Spanish plumes when the cooler Atlantic air makes incursions.

Very dry hot weather is bad for vines - they get scorched. I saw that in the back garden and the vineyard in 2022, though only in the mid-July heatwave. 

Originally Posted by: TimS 

One of the persistent worldwide features of our warming world seems to be midlatitude "heat domes" with very warm dry air aloft that presumably, when the conditions are right, sinks downwards to the surface. See wildfires in Canada and NW US. But then we also get the stinking humidity at other times. This morning's GFS run gives us heat dome conditions. Previous runs (and ECM etc) don't, they're much more about slow moving shallow high/low pressure typical of the dog days.

To some extent we must always have been prone to something similar, just much cooler. Our geography allows for dry Saharan heat to build up over Iberia, tip over the Pyrenees with a mini-foehn effect in SW France, and then head up towards the channel largely unencumbered by ocean. The same geography also helping to generate Spanish plumes when the cooler Atlantic air makes incursions.

Very dry hot weather is bad for vines - they get scorched. I saw that in the back garden and the vineyard in 2022, though only in the mid-July heatwave. 

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Touching 25C 850hPa.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Never mind all this ***** hot weather. Here's someone who believes that next winter will be snowier and colder than recent winters, and calls in at least some meteorological principles to support his thesis.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/early-forecast-data-weak-polar-vortex-united-states-canada-winter-2025-2026-fa/ 

Originally Posted by: DEW 

I would call it astonishing, we are have almost been locked into a pattern since the end of March. 

I am assuming (lack of knowledge) those dew points are quite rare? 

If this pattern were to continue into winter, who knows what may happen with the coming winter, may be a slightly different to what we have been used to ! 

Originally Posted by: TheJudge 

Thank you for the reply.

But you could argue that very few of us would have believed the weather pattern we have had would materialise back in late March? Furthermore, continue the way it has. The likelihood this will continue into winter is almost negligible. But,and I say but, you never know what may come.

Yes regarding 2022 the leaves dropped like it was autumn, I have noticed recently it has started to occur again in my neck of the woods. This may accelerate over the coming week, although there is a little uncertainty after Monday 

Brain called this weather  weeks and weeks ago with his hunch 👍so far he has been bang on, maybe he can pass over by private message this weeks lottery numbers 😉 

Originally Posted by: TheJudge 

Never mind all this ***** hot weather. Here's someone who believes that next winter will be snowier and colder than recent winters, and calls in at least some meteorological principles to support his thesis.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/early-forecast-data-weak-polar-vortex-united-states-canada-winter-2025-2026-fa/ 

Originally Posted by: DEW