I said that 17 - 17.5c was realistically as cool as July could end up (not predicting that would happen) and you ridiculed the idea of the CET getting anywhere near that low. Therefore if it gets within .5c of that so 18c or lower then that would be unfathomable to you.

ECM continues the GEM theme of charts that would be tantalising in midwinter. 

It’s still very hard to say whether next weekend will be hot and muggy, a complete washout or just average summery weather. I’m none the wiser. It looks like there will be an unsettled interlude in the middle of next weekend but after that anything could happen. 

ECM is odd atm it just doesn't want to give us any unsettled weather. Unlike the rest of the output including AIFS which although keeping it very warm is quite unsettled at times. 

Or Essex! Although I have to confess when I did play cricket it seemed to only rain at weekends and be glorious while I was t work all week.

Or Worcestershire,  Our last "wet" day was back in April .....   (I don't consider the odd shower or a bit of light rain overnight to be particularly wet.  Got to the stage where even 2mm in a day is notable ..... )

Never mind all this ***** hot weather. Here's someone who believes that next winter will be snowier and colder than recent winters, and calls in at least some meteorological principles to support his thesis.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/early-forecast-data-weak-polar-vortex-united-states-canada-winter-2025-2026-fa/ 

I wouldn’t bet against it very strong ecm mean at 144 not high uncertainty either

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=144&mode=1&map=0&type=1&archive=0 

Ukmo 168 adds serious weight with ecm mean solution 

No low breakthrough 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmoeu.php?&ech=168&mode=0 

MOGREPS-G 12Z looks warm or very warm in the south through the middle of next week. IME, they often undershoot temperatures, unlike the UKV.

Very nice ecm metrograme London very warm weather continues 

https://media-eu.invisioncic.com/k333824/monthly_2025_07/image.png.386be54c2543d1ca8e4a43d71d9ea275.png 

I think it was Darren that said the other day that this summer, rain and cooler conditions feels like chasing snow in winter 

There does definitely feel a theme of recurring heat and unsettled and cooler weather getting pushed back. It’s certainly been the case the last month

Makes a nice change from the dreadfully cool and unsettled weather we’ve had so far this summer…

Please stay OT. 😊

Gloomin wonderful. Will have to get the heat on this weekend. Which heat?😉

Wouldn't surprise me in the least. A cold winter is long overdue and I think we will see a lot more stormier weather this autumn and winter than recent ones as well, which is based on nothing more than a distant hunch. 

Seems like the reload of the Azores ridge is going to give potential nasty heat around the 17th.  That 20c isotherm looks like its going to hit us eventually

Insane heat on this mornings GFS.  Only Tuesday doesn't get to 30c then later next week into the mid to high 30s. 🥵🥵🥵

31c, 32c, 32c, 31c, 31c, 26c, 30c, 33c, 35c, 37c, 37c, 39c, 35c, 33c, 34c, 36c.

Yes, it really is an astonishing one. Only towards the end does it want to try and bring westerlies back, but right now I’d put money on that failing. Completely bonkers.

Huge climb down from gfs control and mean follow

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=138&mode=0&carte=0&ext=0 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=31&ech=138&mode=0&carte=0&ext=0 

HW 4 likely last week July Gfs thinks with France in the furnace

Probably the longest prolonged heat I've ever seen. It's even rebuilding at the end.

For balance though GEM is much more unsettled. 

I think that must be one of the hottest GFS runs ever! That said, I'm not sure all that much has changed this morning and next week's developments remains uncertain.

I think possibly the hottest run ever, full stop. There is also 44-45C in the Northern part of France and 47C in the South West. Really quite extreme.

Funny though how so often when one model goes in one direction (and GFS has progressively "improved" for 2 or 3 runs now) the other models go the other way. The non-breakdown is partially supported by UKMO but both AIFS and GEM are more unsettled than ever. ECM has been stubbornly resisting a breakdown so doubtless it will now flip.

While the op was an outlier at the end, it does appear there has been shift upwards of the suite in the second half of the range.

Dunno about temperatures,  but GFS 00z this morning has zero precipitation for a large part of central southern England (and hardly any for almost the rest of England and Wales) for it's entire run.