The atlantic trough acting like a heat pump. I think there is a real risk of 40 again.  Granny killer stuff

Mean maximum (ie the average maximum temp across all the ensemble members), not daily mean temperature. But yes it's pretty hot!

The 12Z run blows the heat away quicker but still gets to mid 30s. The question is whether the heat builds again from the south once that low moves through.

Edit: yes it does, another four days into the 30s

Well he is still not sure and hinted at the heat being shunted away  by Sunday evening even if your phone app tells you different.

Grannies are made of sterner stuff . It is the wimpish Gen Z who will capitulate.🤣

Happy days for hot weather fans if the GFS 12Z is close to the mark. 

Heat all the way on the ECM 12z as well tonight. Out to 360h. Especially so for the SE

18Z GFS is a very different story, down to low 20s by Wednesday 16th.

GFS dramatic Moomin level flip.   Lets see if ECM follows tomorrow

Im due to travel down to the London office for a few days next week. I might need to postpone if it looks to be getting too hot.

I'm heading to Wales at the end of next week and it's not looking good on the 00Z GFS or GEM!

In contrast it looks like a warm and sunny period coming up across much of Scotland and NI, so a good spell of summery weather to coincide with the school holidays. 

It looks like the upcoming spell of warm to potentially hot weather will be pretty widespread which is nice. Beyond the next 8-10 days I would expect it to be more average conditions based on current output. However as we have seen this season it doesn’t mean that will prevail. 

I’m still trying to see where Moomin got the information indicating a cool and unsettled July. (I guess if he leaves it long enough he might claim that is what the models showed at one point, but that is not the case.)

As it stands it looks like (at least) a week of “high summer” weather is coming up after the next couple of days.

GFS Op - as previously this summer, HP builds from the SW, and then moves to Scandinavia bringing high temps in its wake. This evolution applies until Sun 13th, when as before a trough moves in from the Atlantic linking with LP over France. This time the trough is more persistent, and for the week to Sun 20th is positioned to the NW of Britain, suggesting unsettled weather for Scotland while HP makes a couple of half -hearted attempts to affect the south. After that the trough moves in to cover all of Britain with centre 1000mb Hebrides by Wed 23rd.

ECM - agrees to Sun 13th , and although the trough does appear to the NW, it is brushed aside by Hp from the SW (again!) which covers all of Britain 125mb by Thu 17th.

GEM - brings the Atlantic trough in a day earlier than GFS i.e. Sat 12th and then develops it more strongly, 1000mb Wales Thu 17th with even a small cold pool.

GEFS - temps rising to a maximum Mon 14th (a peak in the S, more of a plateau in the N) then dropping to near norm and bumping along there to end of run Wed 23rd, most ens members sticking with the mean but any outliers on the hot side; from 13th small chances of rain in the S, more probable and heavier in the N, generally dry until then.

The Met Office monthly also seems to have got wind of school soon being out for the summer soon. 

“However, by the turn of the month, there is a signal for perhaps more widely unsettled weather to develop, though the details of this remain rather uncertain.”

64mm at my vineyard site in the last day and a half so summer’s already over on the Cote de Kent.

Yep, the cool down to cooler and more changeable weather for July is starting to look more likely now.

I anticipate that the models will continue to develop this over the coming runs, and after another brief warm up, July will end up "cooler" than we've had for some considerable time.

Edit. Although ECM keeps the faith with the Azores High ridging back in.

What are you expecting the July CET to be? At least given some indication of what you mean by cool, cooler and "cooler".

I would think that for the predicted “cool” July to materialise the last couple of weeks of the month would need to be several degrees below average. Mid teens at best maybe in the southeast for a couple of weeks given the anomalous heat before then. No output is really suggesting that as far as I can see.

 I suspect Moomin will again ignore my request for evidence to back up the cool July claim. Meanwhile this morning’s output continues to show several days with highs in the low 30s in places.

Cooler than the next ten days or so for the remainder of the month would not be a tough call to make given the imminent outlook!

Consolidation from the models this morning of a 5 day hot spell Thursday to Monday.  30c + easily. Then gets a bit messier but likely remaining warm in the East and SE. Mid to high 20s. But with some rain perhaps at times. 

I'd be interested to know a bit more about what this 'signal' is that the Met Office refer to. It's got to be more than relying on school summer holidays timing. But will they tell us? I can see it happening though after such a long dry run here but what will cause it if it occurs? Jet stream change?

I would think it will still be around a 17c to 17.5c CET for July, but after a hot start, I honestly believe looking at trends that the 2nd half of the month will be cooler than the first.

The ECM op run has the maxima in London from Wednesday as:

25 (9th July)

27

29

30

30

32

28

27

31

30

29

27 (20th July)

And the S Midlands 😉    AI has above average temps* for me through till the 21st and well below average rainfall for that period too.  And atm I trust that much more than GFS etal.    If it does turn "cooler and more unsettled" I think that'll actually equate to "warm with occasional risk of a light shower".

* on which note, worth mentioning that despite all forecasts suggesting a max of around 21c here yesterday - so just about average - it was actually 25c.    And that's from a "cold spell"!

We’re already a week into July, and the following week to two weeks look warm to hot at times, as everyone else knows and can see. 

We actually had some rain here yesterday and a sprinkle overnight.  I think that’s going to be it for a while going on current output. 

And you can normally add at least 2c to them. The Op was particularly settled though. Ensembles look more of a NW/SE split after next Monday. 

A week of summery weather is pretty much nailed on. We are still in early summer too (even though it rather feels like August because it's been warm for so long and nature is so advanced this year). Barely any rain here since June 14th.

+240 is FI, it is ''signal' time', it's hardly 'SO'. Besides, summer in the UK should include cool, wet spells - this isn't (or shouldn't be...) The Med.