The Weather Outlook

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Ally Pally Snowman
28 June 2025 12:18:51
Should have its own thread.

June record under threat 35.6c to beat, most output has similar highs for Monday.  Tuesday could be even hotter.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
28 June 2025 12:30:07

Europe also set to boil. A very widespread heatwave this one.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y74nv1zqpo 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
28 June 2025 12:36:43

Europe also set to boil. A very widespread heatwave this one.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y74nv1zqpo 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Yes France looks set to hit 43C+ and Belgium and the Netherlands could reach 40C.

I doubt if the UK June record will go but I guarantee that if it does and it's Heathrow or somewhere similar, the usual suspects will be ranting that it shouldn't count. (Although Mayflower Park, surrounded by concrete docks, was fine of course)


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

picturesareme
28 June 2025 12:47:36

Some very high Dew Points around at the moment.

Currently dp. 20C here.

Even the met office stations are showing them.

Rob K
28 June 2025 13:14:35

Some very high Dew Points around at the moment.

Currently dp. 20C here.

Even the met office stations are showing them.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

Yes several stattions recording dewpoints over 18C at the moment.

Culdrose reporting 19.1C but also a temp of 19.1C so I don't think that can be right.

Several stations across the Midlands barely dipped below 20C last night - Sheffield had a lowest hourly reading of 19.97C.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Hungry Tiger
28 June 2025 13:20:17

Should have its own thread.

June record under threat 35.6c to beat, most output has similar highs for Monday.  Tuesday could be even hotter.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Well done for starting this thread.  🙂🙂🙂


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



bledur
28 June 2025 13:43:14

Yes France looks set to hit 43C+ and Belgium and the Netherlands could reach 40C.

I doubt if the UK June record will go but I guarantee that if it does and it's Heathrow or somewhere similar, the usual suspects will be ranting that it shouldn't count. (Although Mayflower Park, surrounded by concrete docks, was fine of course)

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Water on two sides of Mayflower Park so not comparable to the vast expanse of dark tarmac at Heathrow .

And no Jet Engines🤣

 

Ally Pally Snowman
28 June 2025 14:19:03

We've officially hit 30c again in a few spots. 32c on the cards


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
28 June 2025 14:33:52

Elsewhere in Europe, currently 42.7C in Merida (Spain) and 38.7C in Perpignan (France)


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Hungry Tiger
28 June 2025 15:49:12

Certainly given what's going on ,on the continent I'll sticky this and then move it to the classics thread at the beginning of September.  🙂🙂🙂🙂


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Brian Gaze
28 June 2025 15:53:59

Definitely worth a dedicated thread. The "odd" thing about this heatwave is the lack of surprise or hype. It seems to have arrived with little fanfare, yet it could deliver some very notable temperatures. However, we're reaching the stage where mid-30s°C are becoming an increasingly common feature of our weather in southern and central areas.


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Devonian
28 June 2025 16:01:06

Water on two sides of Mayflower Park so not comparable to the vast expanse of dark tarmac at Heathrow .

And no Jet Engines🤣

 

Originally Posted by: bledur 

Yes, there is nowhere that has broken 25C that isn't at least ten miles from: an airport, tarmac or an air con unit....

So, I put it to you, the heat wave is an illusion and the truth is it's been cold and wet for weeks 🥶

Devonian
28 June 2025 16:02:27

Definitely worth a dedicated thread. The "odd" thing about this heatwave is the lack of surprise or hype. It seems to have arrived with little fanfare, yet it could deliver some very notable temperatures. However, we're reaching the stage where mid-30s°C are becoming an increasingly common feature of our weather in southern and central areas.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Yup, it's amphibian in saucepan syndrome.

Retron
28 June 2025 16:14:00

The heatwave, or rather notable warm/hot spell, has been going on for the past two and a bit weeks - hopefully it'll peak on Tuesday and maybe, just maybe, we'll see temperatures closer to average (which is between 21 and 22 down here this time of year).

June so far has seen the following rounded maxima here:

22, 21, 18, 19, 17, 20, 19

20, 21, 24, 21, 28, 25, 25

25, 25, 27, 27, 29, 25, 32

27, 27, 24, 27, 26, 27, 30

That's a remarkable set of data and is, in fact, warmer than 1976 at my nearest official station. 

Bear in mind the 91-20 average would look more like this:

19, 19, 19, 19, 19, 19, 19,

19, 20, 20, 20, 20, 20, 20,

21, 21, 21, 21, 21, 21, 21

21, 22, 22, 22, 22, 22, 22


Leysdown, north Kent
Bertwhistle
28 June 2025 17:26:11

Water on two sides of Mayflower Park so not comparable to the vast expanse of dark tarmac at Heathrow .

And no Jet Engines🤣

 

Originally Posted by: bledur 

There is only water on one side of Mayflower Park - the navigable part of the Test. The Itchen to the east is much narrower than the urban area between it and where the recording station was situated, just across the road from the Post House Hotel as was. In 1976 the winds drifted from a broadly NE to E direction and came across central Southampton which is elevated slightly so also provided some shelter.

The station was situated on short turf which was yellowing by the time the high temperatures came. 


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Bertwhistle
28 June 2025 17:28:52

Yes France looks set to hit 43C+ and Belgium and the Netherlands could reach 40C.

I doubt if the UK June record will go but I guarantee that if it does and it's Heathrow or somewhere similar, the usual suspects will be ranting that it shouldn't count. (Although Mayflower Park, surrounded by concrete docks, was fine of course)

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Western Docks to NW of Mayflower Park. Wind was broadly easterly. It was the town if anything that made a difference although this was mostly a quarter mile from the station.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Bertwhistle
28 June 2025 17:34:10

Although I feel quite personal about the Mayflower Park records, it's worth noting that the Stevenson Screen housing the thermometers was not necessarily immune to sabotage or interference, nor the surface beneath the screen: these were not entirely secure, being surrounded by a metal fence which failed to stop the theft of the Campbell Stokes sunshine recorder on at least two occasions I was informed of by MetO staff whilst pilgrimaging several miles to watch them take readings.

(Other kids had better things to do!)


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

bledur
28 June 2025 17:39:28

There is only water on one side of Mayflower Park - the navigable part of the Test. The Itchen to the east is much narrower than the urban area between it and where the recording station was situated, just across the road from the Post House Hotel as was. In 1976 the winds drifted from a broadly NE to E direction and came across central Southampton which is elevated slightly so also provided some shelter.

The station was situated on short turf which was yellowing by the time the high temperatures came. 

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

Long time since i went but i fished the River Itchen at Mayflower Park . Probably looked bigger as a i was only little😄

bledur
28 June 2025 17:51:44

The heatwave, or rather notable warm/hot spell, has been going on for the past two and a bit weeks - hopefully it'll peak on Tuesday and maybe, just maybe, we'll see temperatures closer to average (which is between 21 and 22 down here this time of year).

June so far has seen the following rounded maxima here:

22, 21, 18, 19, 17, 20, 19

20, 21, 24, 21, 28, 25, 25

25, 25, 27, 27, 29, 25, 32

27, 27, 24, 27, 26, 27, 30

That's a remarkable set of data and is, in fact, warmer than 1976 at my nearest official station. 

Bear in mind the 91-20 average would look more like this:

19, 19, 19, 19, 19, 19, 19,

19, 20, 20, 20, 20, 20, 20,

21, 21, 21, 21, 21, 21, 21

21, 22, 22, 22, 22, 22, 22

Originally Posted by: Retron 

But how would that compare to the notably hotter summers of the early 20th century?

bledur
28 June 2025 17:56:18

Yes, there is nowhere that has broken 25C that isn't at least ten miles from: an airport, tarmac or an air con unit....

So, I put it to you, the heat wave is an illusion and the truth is it's been cold and wet for weeks 🥶

Originally Posted by: Devonian 

O.k. So tell me this , if in theory  i have an identical Stevenson screen set up , out in a green field and one set up in the centre of many acres of Tarmac. Both for the sake of argument exactly the same location wise . Which will give the higher temp reading?

Retron
28 June 2025 18:16:11

But how would that compare to the notably hotter summers of the early 20th century?

Originally Posted by: bledur 

Sadly the public Faversham daily data only goes back to 1959 (which was a very warm year at the time, not far off current standards in summer albeit with colder maxima in winter). The 61-90 equivalent, the oldest I can find for the station, would have looked like this:

17, 17, 18, 18, 18, 18

18, 18, 18, 18, 19, 19,

19, 19, 19, 19, 19, 19,

19, 20, 20, 20, 20, 20

London figures are available here, for periods including 1901-30, which might provide an answer:

https://www.metlink.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/urban_heat_island_london_2010.pdf 

Things were generally warmer in 81-06, with the odd equivalent temperature (e.g. summer in Camden Square). Things have warmed further since then, and the 91-20 averages are higher than the 81-10 ones were. 


Leysdown, north Kent
Ally Pally Snowman
28 June 2025 19:05:11

Today's hot-spot was Heathrow 31.3c.

Plenty of 30s as well 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
28 June 2025 21:53:15

New June record for Spain 46.0c at El Granado.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Hungry Tiger
28 June 2025 22:41:18

New June record for Spain 46.0c at El Granado.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Incredible.  😮 


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Rob K
29 June 2025 07:40:04

The model consensus seems to be that the best will peak on Tuesday with 36C in the Kent/Sussex area. Tomorrow should see 34 or possibly 35, most likely either London or East Midlands being the hottest. The June record looks safe. 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

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