Honestly. It was really quite chilly yesterday afternoon. Was breezy and a bit overcast and drizzly, and didn't feel nice.

Fundamentally, I think you may be correct. With ground so dry, if we get the right setup, we could be pushing 40c again this summer, but I don't think just yet.

Get your big coat out Moomin. 😁

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=aifs&var=1&run=12&time=120&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

AIFS has led the way with next heatwave. 

It must have been a very cold breeze given the warmer than average temperatures .

I actually found it quite (relatively) cool out today in that breeze, (I was only wearing a light shirt) though temps did reach 18c at one point. I think this may have been down to the lower humidity than in recent days and the largely cloudy sky. 

Sort of model related. I rate this guy right up there with absolutely anyone. In a nutshell for the UK - normal or above average temps to persist. Have a read though, as the level of overall detail is fascinating (to me anyway)

https://published.aer.com/aoblog/aoblog.html 

ECM and GEM; similar but additionally something of a dip in pressure mid week Wed 2nd.

GEFS: In the S, warm until Wed 2nd (one day Fri 27th cooler) then near norm to Thu 10th with quite good ens agreement; small amounts of rain Thu 26th, Thu 3rd (in SE) and possibly later on. In the N, same trends in temp but always a degree or two cooler, rain in small amounts possible at almost any date.

AIFS; London, midday temps climbing fairly steadily to a max 31C Mon 30th, dropping sharply with mid to low 20s for the following week; rain most likely, but not much, Thu 26th and Sat 5th. Edinburgh, midday temp at a one-off peak of 24C Mon 26th, before this mostly high teens and after mostly low teens; rain most significant Thu 26th and Fri 5th but smaller amounts on various other dates.

Looks like it'll be another short-lived blast of heat again if it happens, a bit like the last couple of weeks. 

There doesn't seem to be any consistent sign in any of the models at the moment of high pressure takinp up residence over or near to the British Isles and sticking around for a while, as happened in the spring. Transient very warm/ hot settled spells seem to be the form horse at the moment for most of the country.

Perceptions will, to a large degree, depend on where you are in the UK. The CET for this month is looking warm or very warm.

35c on Monday to 14c on Wednesday on the 6z GFS. Both extremes are laughable. Neither will verify I'm sure. Although 14c far more likely than 35c.

Looking at the GEFS there has been a surprisingly consistent and clear signal for a cool down around the 1st/2nd July. Although having said that it's really just a return to the norm so perhaps not so surprising?

I'll believe it when it happens - so far it's like chasing cold weather in winter, a rainbow that recedes into the distance as you approach it.

The MetO raw, for the next week, continues the remarkable warm spell down here - maxes, including today, of: 26, 26, 25, 26, 27, 26, 29. And that takes us to the end of June! The mean max here so far is 3C above the 91-20 norm, or 4.4C above the old 61-90 one!

ICON 12z ramps the heat up early next week. Serious 🔥 uppers in the southeast. 

GFS and GEM 12Z both go for 35C+ temps on July 1, followed by a swift cooldown. ICON seems to delay the peak heat a little?

The GFS effortlessly rolls out 36°C, and no one bats an eyelid.

Indeed Brian. I’ve also noted a slight extension to the settled spell on GFS

Tomorrow night could be interesting in the south east and East Anglia. This type of thing has been signalled by a number of recent model runs. I wonder if we could see a yellow issued by the Met Office.

Now there's a surprise. MetO and GFS both continuing the very warm/hot spell (which has been going for 13 days already), no end in sight of it down here at least. This weekend's heat will be centred on the far SE - three days in the 30s according to GFS, or high 20s according to the MetO.

Maybe we should run a sweepstakes as to when the next average day will be down here - it won't be this month now, that's pretty much certain!

Any interest is in the SE half again. Distinctly average up here for the next 5 days. Average temperatures (18-20 C) Breezy and quite wet at times. Our one hot day a distant memory now

The 12z's of both GFS and ECM AI have a very similar look - Azores High ridging towards the UK and at times drifting to centre over the SW/S of England, at other times low pressure encroaching from the NW.

Not the positioning I'd choose, but the majority of England and Wales will be predominantly dry; the more SE you are, the warmer, generally.

35c looks likely atm on Monday, 

Saturday to Tuesday all look likely to get to 30c. 

UKMo looks extreme this morning but would likely show 100f Tuesday. 

Incredible GFS Op this morning. 

UK Met Global shows 36C on Tuesday. 

The cool down at the start of July already looking in trouble.

As I've said before, I'll believe it when it happens! We're seeing the same sort of thing that often happens in winter, the models overdoing the jet and, when the time comes, it's weaker and the ridging to the south is just that bit stronger. It makes quite a difference.

I agree, the models not really dealing with the jet well at all. Only a few days ago, Thursday was looking like a really iffy day, with quite a strong area of low pressure.