I was wondering if the severe cutbacks in the environmental sciences in the US may be impacting the performance of the GFS model. Could that be a factor?

Crap ecm as well hope for better tmrw 

MetO looks a bit iffy on Thursday, but most models agree now a slight cool down for some parts of the UK. Albeit, still above average. Looking like heat will be back though pretty smartly. 

Definitely not seeing a washout or very cool theme these evening. 

Yep. GFS is completely isolated today. Quite poor across all other model runs to be honest and not really what we want to see at the height of summer.

Height of Summer? It started 20 days ago and 10 of those have been outstanding? Also how is it isolated? Please explain, other contributors have highlighted other runs that are close to GFS.

This evening's GEFS update looks consistent.

AIFS is hot in the 168-264 range which gives me hope.

Of a dust bowl, outback or Chaparral?

The beeb use meteogroup and thus no Met O model input?

I believe they make extensive use of Met Office and ECMWF models. I don't want to go OT in this thread, but see what I posted in the media thread. Link:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/Posts/m1646019-Media-Thread-15th-January-2024-onwards 

That's the plan 😁

Better set of 0z so far , Tuesday and Wednesday look very warm in the SE and EA now high 20s possible and then another heatwave starting Friday. 

GFS has three days in the low 30s, GEM and AIFS also good. UKMo is still scrooge but better than the 12z

ECM joins the heatwave party next weekend 😎 

As expected, it's a bit of an outlier though.

I am fairly sure after today, we won't see anything near as warm for a couple of weeks.

Time will tell.

I think another heatwave is now almost certain next weekend tbh. AIFS is on board, you don't bet against AIFS atm.

... not keen on wildlife and gardening then? 😀

We can have a few thunderstorms thrown in. But I'd like mainly sunny 28c to 35c until September please.

I suggest you move somewhere outside the UK then. 😂

Obviously it will never happen but maybe 2/3 weeks of those temps is just about realistic if we got lucky.

Looking at the latest GFS and ECM ensembles which are very similar it looks like the S.E. will continue warm and mainly dry but less good as soon as you start moving north and west. The opposite of what I would like to see really with respect to any rain. Anyway it does look very pleasant here. Today possibly the hottest so far this year and then cooling rapidly to low 20's Monday. After that a two week spell of dry mainly sunny weather mostly around 25C but no doubt with the odd peak nearing 30C on very sunny days and fingers crossed for perhaps the odd heavy downpour. 

GFS Op 00z;  a broad trough passing across (mainly) Scotland as the current HP declines and the blowtorch from the south is turned off.  Then the weather for Britain until Fri 27th reverts to a 'normal' summer, LP near Iceland, HP near the Azores, W-lies between, giving breezy and unsettled conditions in the north, calmer and comfortably warm in the south. The Azores HP tries to nose in Sat 28th but pulls back as LP drifts up from France Mon 30th before the HP has a second go Wed 2nd. This time a cell of HP breaks off and settles over the N Sea with a rather brief resumption of the present synoptics before the W/NW-lies come back in.

ECM; generally similar to GFS but the last of the W-ly regime on Fri 27th has a trough dipping further south; then in compensation pressure remains fairly high after that weekend - although the trough on Mon 30th is there, it doesn't amount to much.

GEM; Also like GFS - treats the trough on Fri 27th differently, keeping local LPs close to Scotland with gales in the NW then and the following day

GEFS; In the S temps drop sharply to below norm for Tue 24th, one day only; then up and down, the warmer spells (+2 to 3C) most likely Wed 25th, Sun 29th & Fri 4th, dropping back to norm between -but different ens members show variations in timing. Rain possible around Thu 26th and Tue 1st but not a lot and only in some runs even then. In the N, the same trends in the temp profile though flattened out and at a lower base (a couple of degrees lower relative to norm). Rain in small amounts possible at any time, perhaps some heavier bursts in the W.

AIFS; Has a hot spell touching 30C for London around Tue 1st (a small amount of rain a day or two later) but wet and cool in Edinburgh at that time

and a windy, chilly storm on thursday which now reaches even the south.  Its possible today will be the peak temp of the summer. also coincides with the solstace.  I wonder if that has ever happened before

You’ve been saying this for two weeks now and been wrong consistently. It’ll happen eventually and no doubt you’ll claim you saw this coning

The bigger picture remains broadly the same. Warmer and more settled the further south and east you are. A blip this week, but for my area it is a blip taking all model output into account. 

Give that today looks to be about 12C above average for the southeast it’s hardly a huge reach to make that prediction. 

And even then, based on current output I’d say there’s considerably more chance of another 30C+ spell in the next two weeks than usual for this time of year. 

It's a good example of how the bell curve isn't symmetrical, either, with the "tail" much longer on the warm rather than cold side. 12C below average here would be a daytime max of just 9C, and I can't remember the last time that happened in mid to late June!