Not a lot changes does it? 

Posters like moomin and beast are simply choosing to ignore the abnormal extent of the 20C isotherm across southern Europe, which is pretty remarkable this season. It's a lazy assumption, especially from the latter calling off the rest of summer effectively, and ignoring the fact even if we get a transient waft of that airmass to the south we'd comfortably hit or exceed the temperatures of the last couple of days.

Reliable outlook looks a classic summer setup for the UK after this heat breaks. NW/SE split with the models consistently showing a greater possibility of an Azores ridge becoming more influential as we head towards July.

A very neat summary avoiding the hype 

Yes your cool washout continues. So cold today.

Looking increasingly firm that another brief burst of very warm air (18-19C at 850hPa) will hit the southeast on Wednesday giving another crack at 30C. Then another less warm spell before high pressure reasserts itself at the weekend.

Azores ridges, or break off centres, are classical good British summer weather. The temperatures these days are not.  And this climate is transitory to another, even warmer, one and then another until..

AIFS 12z still up for next weekends heat which is good enough for me atm.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=aifs&var=1&run=12&time=192&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

ECM 12z also scorchio next weekend 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=12&time=168&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 

Yep, the autumnal theme continues 

I love the heat and humidity, but today felt sickeningly hot at times and I’m not sure why (apart from the obvious that it was)

I’m in our Edinburgh office Monday week. It’ll possibly be quite a weather change 

GFS Op 00z; The current trough near NW Scotland expanding into an area of LP across the N Atlantic with  W-lies propelling alternating troughs and ridges, the troughs becoming more dominant later, but in general the usual W-ly weather, unsettled and cool in the north, settled and warm in the south. Troughs scheduled for Wed 2nd (1005mb N Ireland), Fri 4th (995mb S Ireland) Sun 6th (995mb Scotland), ridges for  Fri 27th (1020mb N France), Sun 29th (1025mb Cornwall).

ECM; similar to GFS, but throw in more of a trough on Thu 26th.

GEM; less of a W-ly later on with specific features appearing over England;  local LP 1010 mb Tue 1st Dover shortly followed by HP 1030mb Cornwall

GEFS; In the S, temps down and up and repeat until to Tue 1st then a slow decline of the mean towards norm but with plenty of ens variation (Op rather cold on 2nd). Rain likely Thu 26th, small chances later on. In the N temp profile similar but with a cooler base, rain also around 26th but small amounts to follow frequently esp in NW, in NE, all or nothing accoring to which run you look at. 

AIFS; For London, max temps rise steadily to 30C Tue 1st, then dropping sharply, rain as for GEFS. For Edinburgh, max also reached on Tue 1st but only 22C, small amounts of rain on most days until Thun 3rd

GEM is looking quite toasty again. GFS 12Z is definitely one of the cooler and less settled options though. 

Each time someone mentions cooler I get briefly excited, before the disappointment sets in - could we finally see an end to the ongoing warm/hot spell, now into its 11th day down here? 

Well, the 12z GFS has, for here, the following over the next 7 days. The 91-20 average for late June is 21.5 or thereabouts:

24, 24, 28, 26, 26, 28, 22 (for next Sunday). 

The MetO raw has:

24, 25, 28, 25, 24, 25

GFS shows a bit of rain Wednesday into Thursday, MetO has the chance of a shower early tomorrow but is otherwise dry.

Or, in other words, the warm spell goes on. I'll certainly not be pinning my hopes on a 168 chart (GFS) coming off, any more than I would if it showed snow in winter at that range!

Yes point taken, I meant more the extended range (but in fact even in the first week the op run is quite a bit below the pack by the end)

Some talk now of a thundery outbreak moving up into the south east from France. I'll believe it when I see it but we did get a brief one last week so you never know. Otherwise, as Retron says, it looks like more dry and warm weather with the odd day in the high twenties.

AIFS ENS v1 is live on 1st July.

https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/FCST/Implementation+of+AIFS+ENS+v1 

Growing consensus of another heatwave this morning, starting Saturday probably ending Tuesday 1st. Peak likely next Monday 33c ish again.

GFS Op 00z; W-lies continuing with a little ripple of embedded HP then LP , Wed 25th then Thu 26th, Winds then shift SW-ly but still LP to the north and HP to the south until the weekend when HP moves up from the SW to cover Britain. Then the W/SW-lies resume until a thundery LP over France threatens the south from Mon 7th onwards and continues to do so while HP takes up position over Scotland/N England, still there Wed 9th.

ECM; similar to GFS but throws in a deeper and closer LP running through on the SW-lies 990mb Hebrides Mon 30th. 

GEM; Also favours LP around Mon 30th, but drifting north from France until HP slowly resumes later in the week, present at least in SW from Wed 2nd

GEFS; temps bouncing around a few degrees above norm in the south, until Tue 1st, then down to norm into July with fairly good ens agreement. Briefly wet Thu 26th, small chance of more rain from Tue 1st. In the north, temps consistently a fraction below norm, bar a brief burst of warmth around Sat 28th; rain possible at any time but small amounts in most runs, wettest in NW.

AIFS; in London, temps on a rising trend to Mon 30th reaching 31C before dropping as for GFS, rainfall pattern similar. In Edinburgh, similar rising temps but only as far as 23C; rain notably heavier from Fri 4th.

MetO rainfall radar has scattered thundery showers for the SE Thu 26th, more widespread rain for N Ireland and S Scotland on that day

It looks like the signal for a period of closer to average conditions in early July is beginning to firm up. Whether or not it will amount to much remains to be seen.

No significant rain spikes though. It's looking very parched around here now the most since Summer 2022 for sure.

GFS 6Z ramping up the heat with 36C on July 1st.

GEM also going for mid 30s the same day.

Heat drawn up with a fairly potent low though, so heralding a cooler spell.

Yes, worst of both worlds. Average temperatures and no much needed rain.

AIFS has been very consistent with this heatwave from about 28th to 1st/2nd. And gradually the other models have followed.  

The average high is only 21 this time of year, and none of the models have a 21 here in the non-FI timeframe (coldest on offer is 22 from GFS later this week); the MetO raw has a minimum of 25 each and every day for the next week, excluding today (24, in reality so far the high has been 23.5). 

It'd be nice to see average conditions down here, but not much sign over the next week. Maybe July will see a change in this warm-dry-hot-dry pattern as the ensembles hint at, but I won't hold my breath... let it get in the 168 or earlier range first! 

GFS 12Z bringing the blow torch back later this week. Perhaps temperatures will go even higher this time?

Possibly could go hot again, but if the 12z is correct, a really wet and cool spell soon afterwards. Looks pretty horrendous out at 10 days.

Thankfully, it won't verify, and neither will blowtorch temperatures in my view. 

Remember the GFS was showing 35/36c for yesterday at about 5 days out.

The reality was actually quite cold in the breeze and I can confirm that as I was at cricket and needed extra layers.

Extra layers, in this weather 😮. When I was a lad....

I don't think the models are gung ho for heat atm, or rain.  But I do know it's only June 23rd, much of the country is parched and there could easily be extreme heat any time in the next two months.