Heat aplenty appearing the in the medium range GEFS 00Z update. I wonder if in the coming days we could soon see one of the ECM ENS postage stamps pushing 40C? 

More interested with next week warmer/hotter settled spell than this week warm faux cloudy wet spikes..  I read reports of overcast skies in London and the SE corner while here very polluted with haze and higher level clouds so forget it this week guys. Let  focus next week better one.

GFS op run goes full scorchio at the end of the run with 22C 850mb temps along the south coast. The following day would be up to the higher 30s I imagine..

The thickness chart shows close to 578 which would tie the 2019 record according to Torro (although did July 2022 beat that?)

GFS has the high in just the right place to advect some continental heat. Seems an unusual evolution from around +144, though - a deep low heads straight towards us but the nearby high inflates over the UK ahead of the low, blocking then weakening it and deflecting it northwards to the west of the UK. After that, though, it's a wet breakdown from around +240 onwards.

ECM not a dissimilar evolution in the medium term - but prolongs the influence of high pressure over the UK.

Neither, unfortunately from my perspective, locate the high over Scotland/just to the north of the UK.

ECM Op and AIFS both look very hot down the track. Hopefully we'll see some higher values in the postage stamps.

although it all breaks down shortly after, with HP ending up north of the UK

The highest observed in 2022, rather than interpolated, was 577.3 at Camborne - it was 577.1 in Sussex.

https://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/sounding?region=europe&TYPE=TEXT%3ALIST&YEAR=2022&MONTH=07&FROM=1812&TO=2000&STNM=03808 

I see the forecast storms and rain for here on Saturday have been completely removed from the BBC forecast and now showing dry. No surprise there really, probably had about two heavy rain thunderstorms in the last ten years!

Comes through Friday night doesn't it?

To answer the question, I hope the Control is a trend setter and not an outlier. 😜

Fingers crossed could do with a nice hot spell

Unusual in my experience to see MOGREPS-G showing 30°C for the mean 3-hourly period at T+198. In fact, taken in isolation (though it's advised to blend the 12Z and 18Z runs), this looks like a very warm update.

Looks like the BBC forecast was a bad presentation. The Met Office video forecast (which I've taken to lately) is more optimistic for this S.E corner and East Anglia, possibly Friday/Saturday, as you say.

Edit: Here's the best I can do this morning.

Or awful, depending upon one's perspective. I can't see it happening atm, but we'll see.

ECM; agrees with GFS

GEM; similar to the above at first but the breakdown Sun 22nd is minimal, HP holds on

GEFS; In the S, heavy rain tomorrow and temp cooling down to norm, After that just a few runs with tiny amounts of rain towards the end of the month; temps from most ens members recover to quite warm around Mon 23rd but there is already a considerable spread of ens member outcomes which gets very wide later on. Rain profile elsewhere similar but with an additional peak in the west today; temp profile also widely similar but much less spread of ens members in the north

Yes I know lots of people will agree with you. I wasn't suggesting 38C is likely, but it does look as though there will be a decent amount of  warm or very warm weather in the next 2 to 3 weeks. 

Awful if is under one day heat spike like this one cloudy warm spike and not a spanish plume as some think to be. I know the package of spansh plume in the 90's that deliver sunny days to the low 30's before the overnight storms arrive.  Seeing 38C on that chart would break a new rcord but to order to get 38C let have several sunny days and slow rising temps daily to the top 38C and slowly drop back with storms follow by sunny average temps.  

Yes, I like warm sunny weather in the upper twenties but why the craving for unbearable heat waves that are just plain uncomfortable and tiring.?

Yes agreed, however based on the ensembles I'm looking at any 35c+ heat looks a low possibility in the next 2 weeks despite the impression you get from reading the comments on here.

Weather enthusiasts do often have an interest in the extremes even if those extremes are detrimental to daily life.

Personal preference: I'm happy doing manual work in my garden in temperatures up to 35°C and really enjoy the heat. That said, once it pushes up to 40°C it falls into the 'experience' rather than 'enjoyable' category. For what it's worth, I think the chance of reaching 35°C to 40°C this year is higher than normal.

Latest GFS 6z P17 has 42c on the 27th

The issue is that the increasing frequency of extreme heat is the canary in the coal mine.

Just a few decades back a very warm day in England was notable at 25c and 30c was exceptional.  Now we seem to hit the high 20s quite routinely and 35c+ is occurring with worrying regularity.

The GFS 06z ensemble continues to agree with this- the mean hugs the 10C 850 for a while. There are a few anomalous (and in the case of P17 at the end highly improbable - take a look) outcomes but the signal has been repeated on successive runs.