There has been quite a bit of lightning on NE Scotland as well as across parts of the south today. Some activity is still ongoing:

https://map.blitzortung.org/#4.86/54.68/-3.17 

On the topic of the model output, it looks as if things will warm up after the next couple of days, whether they become more settled or not is a different matter.

You could look at https://www.lightningmaps.org/?lang=en; and be sure? Disappointingly few but not none.

Also check our own convection thread #9

Had several here south of Kings Lynn, Norfolk

And a very poor 18Z GFS if you are after a warm and settled end to the month. 

EC 15 daysr suggests a prolonged high pressure spell. Whether this lasts till the end of the month is anyone's guess. 

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/12/4959/156_7UKkga1.GIF 

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/73/6932/168_778UKokl0.GIF 

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/34c.jpg 

The vagaries of the GFS op which as usual is all over the place.  Most other output has HP building in strongly after the plume. As is the case again this morning. 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=144&mode=1&map=3&type=0&archive=0 

Not so silly in uppers per gfs  all look to have recovery from s/w.

Gm looks best for lasting warmth looks a little isolated now but having said that 0z ecm mean looks solid

Have to see where opp sits but good news as per AP settled weather returns quickly.

ECM; From Sat 14th it's the Atlantic end of the trough rather than the Brittany end which runs across Britain, and does so further north thus looking less settled for N Scotland and less thundery for the rest. The HP re-asserts itself a day or two earlier, and is positioned off SW England before Tue 17th.

GEM; not quite such a blowtorch as the above, and the LP traversing Britain is less of a feature with HP back in control by Sun 15th and situated squarely over Britain 1025mb Tue 17th.

GEFS; in the S becoming warm or very warm Wed 11th - Sat 14th then cooling with rain, heavy in some ens members; mean temp then stays a little above norm for the rest of the forecast with the usual spread of ens members (control warm, op cool) and small amounts of rain randomly. Similar in the N, though not quite as hot to start with and a more gradual cooling. ECM ensembles similar, perhaps a little warmer in the later stages but also less agreement between ens members

It is the result of a second plume of heat which a cluster of the runs support. But look at that rain spike.  😂

That shallow low slap bang over me in that chart looks interesting when coupled with the positioning of the corresponding upper low.  Serious shear potential. ⚡⚡

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/temperatures-2m/156h.htm 

Potential for some torrential rain early hours Saturday as the two airmasses collide.  I hope its further west as we had enough yesterday.  

I've just removed some OT posts. 

ECM looking warm and very wet.  I think flash flooding is going to be the media story this time next week rather than heat

All those people panicking about the dry weather in March and April looking a bit silly now!

Yes the weather always evens up at some point . Thursday being highlighted on BBC week ahead as a potentially very wet day in places

I for one never panic about dry weather in this part of the world. Order is always restored - often to the point of disorder!

Helps the apples grow. 😀

UKV going for 32C on Friday.

Details for this week have changed quite a lot since Saturday. It now looks like the highest temperatures are more likely a couple of days later. 

ECMs turn to be the summer grinch this morning, it's not terrible but has a cool north westerly at times. All other models are wall to wall scorchio. 

GFS Op 00z; As the week progresses, HP sets up over the N Sea Wed 11th which with LP on Atlantic brings in warm/hot S-lies, possibly thundery weather for Thu; then a resurgence of the HP and a reload of the S-lies and possible thunder at the weekend, HP cell then develops fully by Tue 17th 1030mb  covering Britain, drifting N-wards 1030mb NE Scotland Sat 21st but dissipating Wed 25th with the possibility of a thundery low moving up from France Wed 25th.

ECM; The HP cell does not come close to Britain after Tue 17th, at firs staying to the south but by Thu 19th in northern mid-Atlantic with NW-lies for Britain, and the edge of an LP over Scandinavia affecting NE Scotland

GEM; like GFS - that HP Tue 17th is a little further west, over Ireland, but still determines the weather for Britain unlike ECM

GEFS; In the S a double peak of high temps, Thu 12th and Sat 14th, in each case followed by a rainfall peak as weather cools again; in Scotland more of a single plateau, not quite as hot and some rain on and off 13th-15th but not reaching the far N. Temps generally from Mon 16th for the whole period close to norm with fairly good ens agreement (though control often cooler and op gets warmer later on) and only occasional splashes of rain. 

The double peak of heat that Dew refers to has it's 2nd peak largely overnight on the Friday and is associated with high humidity and thunderstorms. If that materialised, much of the south east of England would be under a much fresher airstream by Saturday day time. It's obviously fine lines though and some extreme eastern parts could hang onto heat through Saturday too. Potential also for the heat to temporarily push further west but generally these outcomes turn out more progressive than the models show in advance.