MOGREPS suggesting a third pulse of heat is possible >15/06. Regardless of the model output, my gut feel for a while has been that the chance of this turning into one of the all time classics is much higher than normal. 

GFS 0Z is a rather toasty run all round with HP setting up shop and 20C upper air knocking on the door again at the end.

Crazy how suddenly the European heat dome has built again over Spain and France and quite early in the Summer also. We may get the first 30c on Friday but if not seems very likely we get there soon afterwards, and very likely that this Summer sees 35c + temperatures in July and early August.

so we are now rooting for GFS!

ECM  the villain!

There have been a few summers where the heat has built in Spain and France and has not made it across the Channel. Or when it has made it over, it's been fleeting and very much a South East England affair. It's not a guarantee. 

There are no guarantees. It is the same in winter. That said, if I were a betting man (and I'm not) I would always take a punt on hot or extremely hot weather in summer over cold or extremely cold weather in the winter, at least in the southern half of the UK.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=114&mode=2&code=13&ext=0 

This week look very poor and once again the nasty 2020s cloudy heat spike or warm spikes.  Overcast unexpected today with little sun and rather cold so can’t see high temps this week.  This is not a plume set up on the models more like cloudy heat spike as if was Spanish plume like the 90s then today should be very sunny to hot dry and sunny before the over night storms come over.

No thanks as this heat dome create lot of clouds for UK and no genuine hot dry sunny weather last seen in 2018. For eg today supposed to start sunny and warming up for later this week is cooler and overcast unexpected.

TBH the warming since the 80s (let alone compared to earlier) means hot weather each year is almost certain, using the MetO definition of 6C or more above average (so 26C in June, 29C in July or August for Kent, for example). 

Unfortunately for coldies like me, we're at the point where even seeing falling snow is a once in every few years event, with settling snow maybe two or three times a decade. Although we always seem to get some very cold charts showing up every year (especially around Christmas), they don't seem to come off anywhere near as often as the summer "plume" equivalents. 

I would expect the result of the current output to be a couple of stifling days down here (the dewpoints having risen notably over the past 20 years too). I'd say it's 50/50 as to whether we actually reach 30, but bear in mind that's 10C above normal for June!

Did you sleep through July 2022?

And June just 2 yeqrs ago

Sorry I rememberr more on 2018 for better sunny days similar set-up we had this Spring.  July 2022 are well remember for being dull month with too many cloudy to overcast days then just 1 day of full sun and 40C but next day to the end of the month cloudy again.   Sorry I am not interested in heat spikes that come in with many weeks of cloudy weather before and after.  I prefer 90's spanish plume package that come with several sunny days to thunderstorm over nights.  12z ensembles i see for here here going up to 14C with an outlier green line up to 16c and cold outlier down to 3C so hope both won't happen as i know the pointed 16C is mean heat spike with large rain spikes same time, not a geniune sunny heatwave like 2018 ensembles run that was showing 13-15C uppers for days to couple of weeks with short cool blips.  

Decent set of 0z this morning,  after the the mini plume, HP building in strongly and becoming very warm especially in the South. 

GFS Op 00z; light W-lies now with trailing fronts but soon resolving into trough to the west and HP to the east with warm/hot S-lies esp for the east, lasting to Sun 15th; the trough pushes closer on Thu and later Fri with thunderstorms likely. HP then steadily moves up from the SW reaching a peak 1035mb NE England Thu 19th, but the centre moves to the NE allowing a narrow trough to move in before HP is again in control Sun 22nd 1025mb Cornwall. Unfortunately that HP then moves N/NW-wards and by Wed 25th there are cooler N-lies for E Britain.

ECM; Similar to GFS - the thundery trough only strongly evident Fri/Sat. The following HP is slower to arrive but by Fri 20th is covering a larger area.

GEFS; a double peak of heat for the S, Thu 12th and Sat 14th, with rain following in each case, very heavy on the 14th. Temps then back to norm or a little above to 26th June, perhaps a little rain at the end of this time. For Scotland, the heat peak is flattened and rain less heavy then, but chances of rain continuing on and off to 26th  with temps again near/slightly above norm.

MetO rain radar shows a band of heavy rain getting organised in the early hours of Thu 12th from N Ireland to Cornwall, and moving NE-wards through the day, breaking up in the S but persisting though less heavy for S Scotland. Midday Friday sees a new area of rain from S Ireland to Cornwall, more fragmented than the previous batch but really heavy in places as it crosses S England, clearing late Friday. Some of this second batch revives and reorganises into moderately heavy rain moving up through N England late Friday, and then there's also another area which gives wet (very wet at first) conditions for W Scotland an N Ireland from Fri evening into Sat.

GFS is the less good option this morning but still not bad. GEFS graphs for London very dry after the rain this week. 

There was a massive contrast in the ECM ENS last night between the north west and the rest of the UK. IMO the problem with this type of thing is it suggests that very small changes in the pressure patterns / jet profile could have a big impact for better / worse.

GFS 6Z seems to have gone off on one - both op and control are well out of kilter with the ensembles even by 168 hours.

Is the Control a trendsetter or an outlier?

Both GFS and ECM look fine in the medium term

Both have high pressure dominating the picture around the UK, albeit slightly different positioning and orientation. Also seems to be some instability about with both models, so not as bone dry as the previous spell - although the GEFS show only tiny amounts of rain

Think I slightly favour the GFS set-up. A little cooler, but with more chance of an easterly drift in the wind.

The GEFS have really toned things down regarding hot options in the next 2 weeks. No guarantee that we see 30c this month now.

There is no guarantee, however other models are available and the ECM 12z op run shows maxima of 33°C on the 21st.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/greater-london/max-temperature-6h/20250621-1800z.html 

There was a 37C in this morning's ECM ENS stamps. The full grid could have contained a 38C but I didn't have the time to look.

UKV showing 31C on Friday in East Anglia.

GFS Op 00z; Thundery LP taking two bites at the UK tomorrow and Saturday as HP hovers in the N Sea. For the following week HP from the SW dominates Britain but there's a re-load of the thundery conditions from the S around Sun 22nd, after which the continental LP merges with the Atlantic to give a standard W-ly pattern, strong winds for the NW.

ECM ; similar to GFS, The re-load involves a broader and (?) hotter Continental trough which shows no sign of linking to the Atlantic, but instead HP ridge for Scotland

GEFS; as before a double peak of heat (flattened in Scotland) and rain this weekend, the first peak heaviest in the SW, the second in the SE, but NW Scotland gets both, For the rest of the period, temps a couple of degrees above norm in the S, less in Scotland, mainly dry but chances of rain to the SE around Sun 22nd, and more generally in the far NW

MetO rain for this weekend; band of heavy rain from SW Ireland to Cornwall early Thu, breaking up as it moves NE-wards, persisting N Ireland and SW Scotland but little reaching the E Coast. Second area of heavy rain moving into central S England from France late Fri, showery at first but becoming a general area of rain as it moves first east then north and out of NE Scotland late Sat. A few unconnected smaller areas of heavy rain in Wales and NW England.