GFS Op 00z: current LP east of Iceland projecting troughs far enough south to affect all of Britain today and Saturday, but nothing dramatic. Then pressure rises 1025mb England Tue10th/Wed 11th and shifts E-wards as pressure drops mid-Atlantic. This combination generates warm S-lies for a few days before the Atlantic moves in and installs a trough 1000mb over Britain Sat 14th. Virtually a repeat performance for the following week, starting Tue 17th, , though this time the Atlantic low heads a little further south on Sat 21st, and suggests warmer SE-lies for longer.
ECM; similar to GFS until end of run when the trough for Sat 14th stays further west and the run of warm S-lies persists.
GEFS;Â for the S, cool-ish now but becoming warm Fri 13th (7 or 8C above norm, good ens agreement), mean dropping back to norm by Sun 15th with a balanced spread of warmer and cooler runs. Some rain (not much) agreed for the next few days, a few ens members have enormous (?thundery) falls of rain Sat 14th / Sun 15th. In the N temp profile similar though not so exaggerated a heat wave next week; rain in small amounts liable at any time and the spikes around the 14th less prominent
ECMHR like GFS but moves the heavy rain a day earlier, to 13th/14th, and includes in in more ens members
War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce
Chichester 12m asl