No thanks if this a heat spike happy with the current low to mid 20's and carry on to the summer at moderate warmth to 28-32C like in 2018.  At the moment we not getting any heat spike due to exceptional wet and cooler weather in Spain our main source of heat so we only getting home grown warmth up to mid 20's under May sun position as in July.

ECM;  much as GFS until Tue 20th when the HP system moves W into the Atlantic and pressure over Europe falls instead of staying high, net result is long-fetch NE-lies for Britain Wed 21st.

GEM; like ECM though HP is slower to move W-wards

GEFS; temps  a couple of degrees above norm in S, more than that in Scotland, until Tue 20th, mean then becoming cooler as ens members spread out. Good chance of a little rain in S & W in next few days, then generally dry until about Wed 21st when more substantial amounts appear in several but not all runs in most places. 

Incredible dry spring this is turning out to be. 

:-o  🙂 

As expected, this deep LP has gone from the 06z. Instead we have 990mb Wales Thu 22nd, and moving up the W coast from there.

GFS Op 00z; current trough mainly affecting England drifting away to SW as pressure rises over Scotland (Shetland 1030mb Wed 14th) and ridging to rest of Britain; holding this position to Tue 20th when HP moves towards Iceland and LPs from Biscay and Atlantic combine to form a centre 1005mb S Ireland Thu 22nd. LP from the Atlantic moves in slowly to take over, similar central pressure and position but with trough now extending towards Scotland Tue 27th, with areas of HP to SW and SE of Britain.

ECM: Differs from GFS after Tue 20th - the ridge of HP moves SE-wards as a whole, no LP over Biscay, large but slack LP forming E of Greenland 995 mb Thu 22nd and no LP over Biscay. This model thus continues the dry weather unlike GFS & WX.

GEM: like ECM. The LP on Thu 22nd is deeper and closer, 985mb S of Iceland

GEFS: temps slightly (in the S) or definitely (in the N) above norm with good ens agreement to Tue 22nd then mean declining to norm as ens members spread out, op and control going in different directions. Some ens members show rain in S & W from Mon 21st, rather more do so generally from Wed 23rd. Today's showers offer minimal amounts on the GEFS chart but may be heavy locally.

Why do the UKV maps look like they’ve been drawn with a blunt crayon by a blind 3 year old?

😂😂I think it's a combination of their resolution and the way Matplotlib handles them. The Arome charts could be even more fun.

GFS Op 00z; current HP moving north to a position centred between Scotland and Iceland but ridging S-wards to affect the rest of Britain and persisting there until Wed 21st. It then slips SW-wards as LP develops near Greenland and moves to be centred N Scotland 985mb Sat 24th. Pressure remains low over the Atlantic with LP 1000mb approaching W Ireland Thu 29th. (Note ; this doesn't match WX which is however presenting the output dated Mon 12th, at which time GFS was predicting LPs crossing England rather than Scotland and - EDIT - on reflection, today's GFS looks rather like yesterday's ECM)

ECM; agrees with GFS

GEM; this model stays with the idea of LP running further south towards Ireland Wed 21st and into Biscay Fri 23rd with trough across England linking to Scandinavia

GEFS; Fri 23rd appears to be the pivot day. Until then temps a little (in the S) a lot (in the N) above norm with moderately good ens agreement, and dry apart from from some showery rain today. After the 23rd mean temp is near norm but with bigger spread of ens members and significant rain appearing in an increasing number of runs though smaller amounts in the E. 

😵😵😵😵

This present stuff is perfect. 22 to 24C and slate blue skies and a nice breeze 👌 😌 💙 

That's interesting because I'm sure someone here a few days ago was suggesting the 21st of this month was the next chance to put this drought out of its misery. This dry spring is drier than 1976 which is something. A dry summer after this spring  would be taking us into uncharted territory politically and environmentally.

GFS Op 00z; HP near Fair Isle 1030mb with broad ridge to Britain lasting to Mon 19th when it moves first to Greenland and then S-wards to mid-Atlantic. As the HP moves to the NW, LP over Baltic and France brings a spell of NE-lies around Wed 21st. Then as the HP moves to the S, LP develops near Greenland and moves to Britain, 990mb Bristol Sat 24th (not quite the horror show that Brian posted yesterday, but still quite a change). This LP moves SE-wards, leaving Britain in slack LP with another depression approaching Ireland from the west,  1005mb Fri 30th.

ECM; somewhat like GFS but tends to keep HP stronger; thus weaker NE-lies on Wed 21st, and LP still waiting its turn near Greenland on Sat 24th.

GEM; like ECM

JET; Omega block in place until Sat 24th when a locally strong streak appears over SW Britain , and Fri 30th, another streak stretching from NE USA to Portugal.

GEFS; mean temps close to norm with good ens agreement for the next fortnight, if anything slightly above norm for week 1 and slightly below week 2 (yes, this contradicts WX). Dry to Fri 23rd, then rain in most runs, quite large amounts in S & W, less in N & E.

It shouldn't though.  Since the autumn of 2022, we've had the wettest period down here anyway since records began. If all it takes is a few dry months to get us into crisis then it tells you something is badly wrong with our infrastructure 

I'd much rather have the current set-up. Not only is it generally more stable, the AH generally brings inds from a westerly quadrant to MBY and its waxing and waning toward/over the UK allows weather systems to topple in over the top. You in the SE don't get that affected by this like we do in the west/north.

I'd always prefer the high centred over Scotland, just north of it or centred over the North Sea (the southern North Sea or Benelux) for warmer temps). Sadly, this is not a common set-up!!

My preference also, Skies are bluer, sunshine is more golden and colourful (thanks to the lower humidity) and in winter, can deliver some proper frosts. 

I despise the Azores high. Often murky, but even if the murk breaks, the sunshine is ugly, glarish and colourless, with always a highly unpleasent feel to the air. 

AIFS has LP parked over Britain from Sun 25th onwards, pulling in just those  cool NW-lies - is that what you were looking at?