The Weather Outlook

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Rob K
11 February 2025 11:40:33

So it's still cold then, ok. I thought Rob k was implying that 6c wasn't cold so thanks for the clarification 👍

I couldn't fathom that it was meant to mean mild, as that made no sense. That's why I had to ask.

Originally Posted by: Windy Willow 

Somewhat OT for this thread but I meant that 6C is only a degree or so below the average max for the south (or at least what used to be considered the average) at this time of year - so, not what you would expect to see from the current synoptics, and also not really "a cold day" as the media describe it. More like a slightly chilly but average February day.

Looking through GFS I see the high pressure is still trying to hang on to the east and at least cold air is where it should be over eastern Europe, but it can't make any headway against a jet fuelled by yet more American cold.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

+1
Quantum
11 February 2025 12:00:33

time to move on now I think. Its over

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

ARPEGE6Z and JMA6Z are alot better. ICON6Z and GFS6Z are alot worse.

It can't be quite over.

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

+1
Quantum
11 February 2025 12:15:04
I think I've found the key factor. So the difference between the ARPEGE, JMA and the good GEFS vs GFS and the ICON is the position of the upper level low in the southern north sea. We want it as far west as possible, the further west it ends up being, the weaker the heights are over the UK later as the atlantic tries to move in, that allows the lower heights from the NE to better separate the azors part from the greenland part.

To me the UKMO6Z is about half way between the GFS and the JMA solution.

HARMONIE is closer to the JMA solution.

Interestingly enough the GFS fed WRF is slightly further towards JMA than the GFS is.

The ICON-D2 9Z is more JMA like than the ICON-D2 6Z (I appreciate I'm really reaching here).

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

ballamar
11 February 2025 12:22:01

I think I've found the key factor. So the difference between the ARPEGE, JMA and the good GEFS vs GFS and the ICON is the position of the upper level low in the southern north sea. We want it as far west as possible, the further west it ends up being, the weaker the heights are over the UK later as the atlantic tries to move in, that allows the lower heights from the NE to better separate the azors part from the greenland part.

To me the UKMO6Z is about half way between the GFS and the JMA solution.

HARMONIE is closer to the JMA solution.

Interestingly enough the GFS fed WRF is slightly further towards JMA than the GFS is.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

It’s not over at all but obviously the chances are diminished. Greenland is key and the shape of the high. JMA is favourable to push and reshape the low pressure. Few more twists could pop up

Quantum
11 February 2025 12:32:55
So another factor is the westward extent of the trough around Svalbard before it drops. It correlates well with the western extent of the low countries trough.

Anyway based on this, assuming all this analysis is worth something, the UKMO6Z is substantially better than the UKMO0Z and the GFS6Z is the worst of the entire lot so far.

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Chunky Pea
11 February 2025 13:32:23

It can't be quite over.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

To be honest, I hope it will be soon. This thrill of this constant near average chill, which many do find quite cold, coupled with the occasional spit of pointless rain, not much, but enough to keep the ground wet,  is beginning to wear a bit thin. 

Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

+1
Quantum
11 February 2025 13:46:41
ECMWF joins the JMA camp while NAVGEM joins the GFS camp.

So its JMA, ECM, ARPEGE vs GFS,ICON and NAVGEM

UKMO doesn't run long enough for me to tell, its an upgrade from the 0Z for sure but beyond that I don't know.

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Taylor1740
11 February 2025 14:10:39

Hat off to Taylor1740 who was very right to call off couple of days ago.  No signs of cold over the 00z ensembles just less cold to average to slightly above.  It been record wet and dull 5 days now compare to last month storm that brought short lived rain and follow by 2 near sunny days and very low humidity was my highlight of this winter.

Models had been very poorly wrong, so bad and so worse now than before.   That time they were firming 10th Feb benchmark for the deep cold to come here, and today should be snow showers and sunny spells in between.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

I think the main problem was there has never really been any consistent and sustained confidence in the output for a proper cold spell. I think at best it briefly got to about 50% on the GEFS going very cold, coupled with the Meto LRF meant it seemed unlikely to me. In my experience cold spells need high confidence in the output several days ahead and even then they can go wrong. 

Best we can hope for I think now is some drier brighter air and for this terrible mucky Easterly to clear off at least for a few days before the Atlantic moves back in. Very little sign of an early Spring though.

NW Leeds - 150m amsl
Quantum
11 February 2025 14:25:42
I may (hope to) be wrong about this but I think ICON12Z is going to be a downgrade because on the ICON-D2 the upper level low is further south and east. Its reading tea leaves though.
25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Quantum
11 February 2025 15:40:31
ICON12Z is indeed a slight downgrade, and so is ARPEGE12Z though the ARPEGE is still favouring continuing the cold which is something at least.

EDIT: GFS starting to run now, Europe trough position is superior so on that basis an upgrade? But the second trough is further east so its a little uncertain.

EDIT2: Never mind the svalbard trough is actually further west now its broken off. GFS12Z is an upgrade on the 6Z, I'm like 80% sure

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Rob K
11 February 2025 16:13:25
Well at 120 hours the -10C isotherm which was hovering just off the east coast of the UK on the 6Z GFS is now on the Norwegian coast on the 12Z!

However the angle of attack of the trough is very different and may be beneficial further down the line.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Brian Gaze
11 February 2025 16:19:28
The general picture looks reasonably consistent to me. If it's wintry weather you're hoping for, Scotland is clearly the place to be, with the boundary remaining very close.

In terms of the last few days, my view is the models have been performing quite well. FWIW, I don't think the risk of a full fat easterly outbreak ever got much above 30%. On one or two GEFS cycles the number of runs may have been higher, but when blended with the earlier updates from the GEFS and other models it wasn't. Even now I wouldn't discount the possibility, it's simply that it doesn't look likely.

UserPostedImage

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

+1
Quantum
11 February 2025 16:27:41
I wonder if the cold easterly solutions simply have 'less entropy' than the other solutions. The GFS12Z by all accounts was alot more like the JMA6Z and it did look like the cold surge went much further west, however the LP also ended up being somehow further north so the 12Z was really only an upgrade for the Orkney islands and the outer hebridies. We do seem to have opened up the possibility of something JMA-like but a bit further north; which opens the possibility at least for the cold surge to still happen but at roughly the 120-144h range instead.

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Quantum
11 February 2025 16:31:21
GEM12Z kinda does this.

UserPostedImage 

The 850hpa temperatures and the surface temperatures are more or less the same. Its going to feel bitterly cold under presumably subzero dewpoints.

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Quantum
11 February 2025 17:02:02
JMA12Z is a downgrade on the 6Z but it keeps the idea going. Not quite over, but the 12Z is a little further in the wrong direction.

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

idj20
11 February 2025 17:05:34
I wouldn't push the GFS 12z FI out of bed in terms of spring-hoping, I can smell the scent of freshly cut lawns. Of course it'll be gone in the next run but would like to see it trending. 
Home location: Folkestone Harbour.
Chunky Pea
11 February 2025 17:06:15
GFS12 7 day temp anomalies. Deeper cold getting pushed away further east. 

UserPostedImage

Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

Rob K
11 February 2025 17:08:58
Well, the different angle of attack didn't help at all on the GFS 12Z, it just allowed the jet to ride fully over the high pressure and allow spring to arrive.

Ah well, at least I saw a few slushy remnants of snow on top of the hill when I went mountain biking in Wales on Sunday.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

haghir22
11 February 2025 17:34:46
Q, I admire your optimism and undoubtedly look forward to your posts. I understand completely that the models can switch again (why never in our favour?), but I fear more than the now proverbial 'Pete Tong' this chase now has the 'Spectre' of Sam Smith's Bond theme all over it.....
YNWA
Brian Gaze
11 February 2025 17:50:43
Some very warm air to the south of the UK at t+168 on the UM this evening. 

UserPostedImage

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

doctormog
11 February 2025 17:53:46

Some very warm air to the south of the UK at t+168 on the UM this evening. 

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Give me that any day here over the easterly influence and this: 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMHDOPUK12_168_2.png 

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

Hungry Tiger
11 February 2025 18:12:47

To be honest, I hope it will be soon. This thrill of this constant near average chill, which many do find quite cold, coupled with the occasional spit of pointless rain, not much, but enough to keep the ground wet,  is beginning to wear a bit thin. 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 

And here with this non stop dank overcast stuff - it is really dreadful.   😞 

Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



+2
Hungry Tiger
11 February 2025 18:13:48

Some very warm air to the south of the UK at t+168 on the UM this evening. 

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Bring this on. Anything is better than this dank faux cold.     🙂 

Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



+1
Quantum
11 February 2025 18:24:15
Urgh so literally nothing has changed its still:

Team JMA with ECM, ARPEGE

Team GFS with ICON

UKMO and GEM are in the middle with only Scotland staying in the cold.

ECMWF12Z is bitterly cold for the east, ice days are likely going to be a thing early next week.

We also get a long fetch easterly at around T+204h.

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Jiries
11 February 2025 18:34:54

It beeBring this on. Anything is better than this dank faux cold.     🙂 

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

it been an ordeal with 5 straight days of no sun, lot of rain and less cold temps now outstayed it welcome,  I seen the ensembles and lot of outliers on the mild side so hope it will come off with further trending and light end of the tunnel to see this easterly curtains now.

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