The Weather Outlook

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Retron
09 February 2025 10:04:45

Hmmm, I remember saying something along those lines on one of these threads a few years back and some others seemed to disagree!

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

Not sure why anyone would disagree. The MetO has four things that we don't:

* Access to more data (they get every single parameter of their model, for example, including the charts which differentiate between modelled wet snow, powder snow etc);

* A greater understanding of the various parameters in the modelling, including all the stuff like helicity etc which seldom gets mentioned on forums;

* A much more sophisticated probability modelling system, covering all the models, known as Decider - it produces regime likelihood charts, cluster info etc

* A daily "chief forecaster's briefing", which used to leak online occasionally in the old days (25+ years ago) but which I've not seen for a while.

That said, you'd be pretty foolish IMO to simply write off anything at the moment.

Leysdown, north Kent
+3
David M Porter
09 February 2025 10:04:57

The UKMO is very rarely correct when it's by itself at that range. 

As you say it's back to meh this morning.  Roll on Spring. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

I can remember some occasions over the years (not always in the winter) when UKMO went against GFS and ECM at a week ahead and in reality ended up verifying closer to the mark than the other two when the time arrived. Also, I can remember someone once commenting that no-one could be sure about what happens a week ahead unless the ECM, GFS and UKMO were in full and consistent agreement on a particular outcome.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

AJ*
  • AJ*
  • Advanced Member
09 February 2025 10:08:22

As I mentioned the other day, I think the current situation is one of those like we have seen from time to time in past winters where the models are struggling to deal with a blocked set-up.

From what I can see, at the moment the models are still trying to work out what the LP in the atlantic will do a week or so from now and what path it will take as it attempts to move eastwards. A lot seems to be hinging on that right now and until this is settled one way or another, we can't be anywhere even approaching sure of what happens from mid-month onwards. There is next to no run-to-run consistency and cross-model support for any one outcome at the moment and I don't see how anyone can confidently call what will likely take place a week or more ahead until such times as we have both of those.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

That last sentence pretty well sums up my conclusion from looking at the 00z GEFS this morning. By the end of this week it's not possible to make a prediction about what will happen afterwards with any degree of confidence.

Angus; one of the Kent crew on TWO.

Tonbridge, 40m (131ft) asl

ballamar
09 February 2025 10:10:31

Not sure why anyone would disagree. The MetO has four things that we don't:

* Access to more data (they get every single parameter of their model, for example, including the charts which differentiate between modelled wet snow, powder snow etc);

* A greater understanding of the various parameters in the modelling, including all the stuff like helicity etc which seldom gets mentioned on forums;

* A much more sophisticated probability modelling system, covering all the models, known as Decider - it produces regime likelihood charts, cluster info etc

* A daily "chief forecaster's briefing", which used to leak online occasionally in the old days (25+ years ago) but which I've not seen for a while.

That said, you'd be pretty foolish IMO to simply write off anything at the moment.

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Multiple experienced professionals as well to interpret the data. I honestly think people just get too emotional when it doesn’t align with their thoughts/hopes!

ballamar
09 February 2025 10:28:32
Bit of a boost in the jet forecast - scuppers the high
Matty H
09 February 2025 10:37:00
You know the writing is on the wall when David starts recalling, lol 😜 

Q will find salvation somewhere in the ZVXWCVZM Model 

Of course Darren is correct about not writing anything off, but…. You just know don’t you?

Todays runs are generally a step back from yesterday where they weren’t exactly conclusive anyway

Next!

Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

The Beast from the East
09 February 2025 11:05:25
pete tong and fat lady have entered the building.  Samaritans must be getting a lot phone calls from some of the netweather lunatics. They really do take things too seriously on the other side!

I just hope we can avoid a stormy period as the block declines. This easterly was never really going to happen was it

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

tallyho_83
09 February 2025 11:14:45

pete tong and fat lady have entered the building.  Samaritans must be getting a lot phone calls from some of the netweather lunatics. They really do take things too seriously on the other side!

I just hope we can avoid a stormy period as the block declines. This easterly was never really going to happen was it

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

I have lost track of the amount of failed easterlies that the models have shown only to back track and downgrade them closer to the reliable time frame. We will only end up with cold rain or a cold or damp day,.

Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

---------------------------------------

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Hippydave
09 February 2025 11:30:27

You know the writing is on the wall when David starts recalling, lol 😜 

Q will find salvation somewhere in the ZVXWCVZM Model 

Of course Darren is correct about not writing anything off, but…. You just know don’t you?

Todays runs are generally a step back from yesterday where they weren’t exactly conclusive anyway

Next!

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Think I'll just quote you and the highlighted bit as it saves me doing a long rambling post saying the same thing😃

Not resolved yet and given the last few days and the ens scatter, I suspect it'll carry on wobbling between options but definitely less support for a cold easterly mid to long term in the ens suites this morning. 

Home: Tunbridge Wells

Work: Tonbridge

+2
Gandalf The White
09 February 2025 11:34:30

Think I'll just quote you and the highlighted bit as it saves me doing a long rambling post saying the same thing😃

Not resolved yet and given the last few days and the ens scatter, I suspect it'll carry on wobbling between options but definitely less support for a cold easterly mid to long term in the ens suites this morning. 

Originally Posted by: Hippydave 

This place has always been prone to excessive periods of ill-merited excesssive optimism followed by similar period of ill-merited excessive pessimism, whilst reality plods along in the middle….

🙂

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



+3
Lumi
09 February 2025 11:53:21

Think I'll just quote you and the highlighted bit as it saves me doing a long rambling post saying the same thing😃

Not resolved yet and given the last few days and the ens scatter, I suspect it'll carry on wobbling between options but definitely less support for a cold easterly mid to long term in the ens suites this morning. 

Hippydave wrote:

Good post. Lots of uncertainty today, so not much difference except more of an Atlantic bias at this time (its always been not if but when). Think Met O expressed this uncertainty yesterday.

Thurlstone

South Yorkshire

230m AMSL

fairweather
09 February 2025 12:12:52

The winter has been very strange. Some great synoptics on offer but very little proper cold (for the South I mean) Its been cold enough to require high heating expenses and suffering for those who dont like the cold, but without producing anything we used to see in the old days.  Very much a modern winter - anaemic cold. everything just a degree or two warmer than we would have seen 30 years ago, which means cold rain and sleet rather than the snow and ice we could have had

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Not really strange because if you sift back through most of the last few winters M.O. posts we see and say the same every winter!

S.Essex, 42m ASL
+1
fairweather
09 February 2025 12:17:31

ECM ends well. But it’s jam again today, like yesterday and the day before. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

...... and the week before and the year before and the year before that year.............. 😂

S.Essex, 42m ASL
+3
Quantum
09 February 2025 12:50:02
CMA0Z is as good as it gets.

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Brian Gaze
09 February 2025 12:54:17

Not sure why anyone would disagree. The MetO has four things that we don't:

* Access to more data (they get every single parameter of their model, for example, including the charts which differentiate between modelled wet snow, powder snow etc);

* A greater understanding of the various parameters in the modelling, including all the stuff like helicity etc which seldom gets mentioned on forums;

* A much more sophisticated probability modelling system, covering all the models, known as Decider - it produces regime likelihood charts, cluster info etc

* A daily "chief forecaster's briefing", which used to leak online occasionally in the old days (25+ years ago) but which I've not seen for a while.

That said, you'd be pretty foolish IMO to simply write off anything at the moment.

Originally Posted by: Retron 

The models and parameters they make available can be viewed here without a login:

https://datahub.metoffice.gov.uk/docs/f/category/atmospheric/overview 

At the spring forum I'll ask if they have any plans on making Decider available via the same api.

Of course the other big thing they have is objectivity. It's my view that the vast majority of people (I don't include you ) on the forums and social media lack this most basic and priceless asset. 😊

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

+5
Gandalf The White
09 February 2025 13:03:31
The GFS 06z ensembles maintain the consistent theme with one mild cluster and one cold cluster at the 850hPa level. The divergence starts as early as Tuesday; the Op stays in the cold cluster until next Saturday. There’s a solid cold group for another week and a rather more dominant milder cluster in a week’s time.

For 2m temperatures the mean and Op are aligned until Monday week.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



+1
Taylor1740
09 February 2025 13:59:22
Still considerable uncertainty but mild definitely favoured now, would be very surprised if we pluck a cold spell from the jaws of defeat now.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
Chunky Pea
09 February 2025 14:02:26

Of course the other big thing they have is objectivity. It's my view that the vast majority of people (I don't include you ) on the forums and social media lack this most basic and priceless asset. 😊

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

For some reason, I get a ton load of (mostly UK based) ametuer forecastsrs on my youtube feed, who willl deep dive into one single and selective run. There is always the disclaimer, of course, halfway through the vids, that 'this is only one run', but the headline and thumbnails do not suggest this at all. It's all clickbait And that's the difference between professionals and amatuers. Imagine if the UK Met or Met Eireann made an urgent forecast based on one, apocalytic run. That said, I do understand the enthusiam of these amatuer forecasters. Their heart is in it and they of course have the freedom to discuss a single run as they see fit. 

Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

+1
The Dub Version
09 February 2025 14:52:24

Not sure why anyone would disagree. The MetO has four things that we don't:

* Access to more data (they get every single parameter of their model, for example, including the charts which differentiate between modelled wet snow, powder snow etc);

* A greater understanding of the various parameters in the modelling, including all the stuff like helicity etc which seldom gets mentioned on forums;

* A much more sophisticated probability modelling system, covering all the models, known as Decider - it produces regime likelihood charts, cluster info etc

* A daily "chief forecaster's briefing", which used to leak online occasionally in the old days (25+ years ago) but which I've not seen for a while.

That said, you'd be pretty foolish IMO to simply write off anything at the moment.

Originally Posted by: Retron 

And the text today swings back to cold and snow again.

Berkshire
HighPressureGloom
09 February 2025 15:18:41

You know the writing is on the wall when David starts recalling, lol 😜 

Q will find salvation somewhere in the ZVXWCVZM Model 

Of course Darren is correct about not writing anything off, but…. You just know don’t you?

Todays runs are generally a step back from yesterday where they weren’t exactly conclusive anyway

Next!

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Matty H perpetual douche for a quarter century  😂

Pretty grim synoptics for now, lots of cloud, breezy and cool. Maybe brighter and less windy towards the weekend as the high strengthens.  

+1
ballamar
09 February 2025 16:14:30
Possibly a better GFS op 12z for cold…
David M Porter
09 February 2025 16:18:55

Still considerable uncertainty but mild definitely favoured now, would be very surprised if we pluck a cold spell from the jaws of defeat now.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 

Until there is consistent cross-model support and run-to-run consistency, it could still go either way as far as I'm concerned.

Also, the MetO seemed to have altered their thoughts since yesterday, as noted by TDV above.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

ballamar
09 February 2025 16:27:08

Still considerable uncertainty but mild definitely favoured now, would be very surprised if we pluck a cold spell from the jaws of defeat now.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 

Out of interest why is it favoured? What factors are you taking into consideration?

Retron
09 February 2025 16:39:23

Out of interest why is it favoured? What factors are you taking into consideration?

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

I suspect it's largely on Sod's Law, that deep cold from the east is so rare it won't happen even if it's shown.

I'm keeping an open mind on it. After all, the GFS at the 10-day frame has gone from SW'lies to ENE'lies in a single run, and that simply reflects the large range of possible solutions in the mix.

6z 240 on the left, 12z 234 on the right.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/58/12891/gfs_0_240nbz1.png 

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/11/2377/gfs_0_234xpl9.png 

UserPostedImageUserPostedImage

Leysdown, north Kent
+1
Taylor1740
09 February 2025 16:46:03

Out of interest why is it favoured? What factors are you taking into consideration?

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

Combination of model output including ensemble data, Meto LRF and past experience of cold spells and Easterlies that very rarely verify as you get nearer the time. Taking all that into account and I would say maybe 25% chance currently of a proper cold Easterly.

NW Leeds - 150m amsl

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