The Weather Outlook

Remove ads from site

Saint Snow
31 January 2025 13:42:13

Hadley

3.4 to the 30th

0.5c below the 61 to 90 average

1.3c below the 91 to 20 average

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

It feels bloody freezing today - yet it's up to 7/8c widely (away from the east).

I think it'll stay 3.4c, but may edge up to 3.5c (we seem to have much less month-end adjustments these days - is there a reason for this that I've missed?)

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Quantum
31 January 2025 13:54:14

Hadley

3.4 to the 30th

0.5c below the 61 to 90 average

1.3c below the 91 to 20 average

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Wow when did we last see a month this cold (in anomoly terms)?

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Stormchaser
31 January 2025 15:53:27
I must admit, this month's temperature behaviour has surprised me. My main reason for avoiding a negative CET anomaly estimate was a strong signal in extended modelling for a positive NAO to manifest with temperatures rising above average in a sustained and potentially substantial manner.

The positive NAO has very much turned up and at about the expected time too, but the resulting position of the polar boundary has been unusually far south for such an NAO state. While we saw a couple of very deep troughs and strong windstorms in association, the momentum has quickly fallen off again, allowing chilly conditions to reassert themselves.

Down here, the month has featured one snowfall but only a short-lived accumulation, and otherwise been lacking in notable cold weather events, yet the mean will be about 0.7°C below the 1991-2020 average. What a peculiar month!

In hindsight, I should have been less confident in the temperature response to +NAO, and also given more weight to the possibility of very low overnight temperatures over lying snow in the 2nd week of the month.

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 

2025's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 32.0°C 12th Aug | T-Min: -5.4°C 4th Jan | Wettest Day: 31.8 mm 18th Dec | Ice Days: None

Keep Calm and Forecast On

four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
31 January 2025 16:32:17
2.2C(-1.2C) here at close.
North York Moors weather 
Brian Gaze
01 February 2025 12:17:17
I'm also surprised. I'd now be somewhat surprised if February isn't a colder than average month.

January: 3.2°C

1961-1990: -0.60°C

1971-2000: -1.10°C

1981-2010: -1.40°C

1991-2020: -1.50°C

1659-2020: -0.10°C

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/cet-tracker.aspx 

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

+2
Bertwhistle
01 February 2025 12:40:04

It feels bloody freezing today - yet it's up to 7/8c widely (away from the east).

I think it'll stay 3.4c, but may edge up to 3.5c (we seem to have much less month-end adjustments these days - is there a reason for this that I've missed?)

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

I recall the process transitioned to ongoing adjustments a few years back (as the data came in) which removed the surprises (and sometimes disappointments as in July 2013 and 2014) at month's end.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

+1
lanky
01 February 2025 13:49:12
Met Office have given Jan 2025 as 3.40C to 2 dec places

so GezM is nearest to head the table in month 1 with 3.35C and so 0.05 out

congrats to him

Martin

Richmond, Surrey

+1
Hungry Tiger
01 February 2025 15:48:35

I'm also surprised. I'd now be somewhat surprised if February isn't a colder than average month.

January: 3.2°C

1961-1990: -0.60°C

1971-2000: -1.10°C

1981-2010: -1.40°C

1991-2020: -1.50°C

1659-2020: -0.10°C

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/cet-tracker.aspx 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Cheers Brian.   🙂 

Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Frank H
01 February 2025 16:00:17

Met Office have given Jan 2025 as 3.40C to 2 dec places

so GezM is nearest to head the table in month 1 with 3.35C and so 0.05 out

congrats to him

Originally Posted by: lanky 

Well played Gez

Wrightington, Wigan
Windy Willow
01 February 2025 16:23:01
Nicely done GezM
South Holland, Lincs 5m/16ft ASL

When I saw corruption, I was forced to find truth on my own. I couldn't swallow the hypocrisy.

Barry White

It’s the end of the world as we know it (and I feel fine) - R.E.M.

Saint Snow
01 February 2025 17:25:20
Well done Gez

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

scillydave
01 February 2025 19:25:01
Congratulations Gez - a virtual bottle of Moet is on it's way to you!

I'll get the results table up tomorrow and also the predictions for February. It's going to be an interesting month ahead!

Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

+3
Tim A
02 February 2025 08:56:51
2.4c mean here, surprisingly chilly. Yes there was 10 days of snow cover/cold spell for the first half but temps have been consistently subdued apart from a brief mild snap immediately after the snow.  
Tim

NW Leeds

187m asl

 My PWS 

GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
02 February 2025 13:46:43
Thanks for the congratulations all! I feel lucky because the early cold spell wasn't as long lasting as I expected and the later mild spell wasn't as mild or widespread as I expected. The two cancelled each other out.

Can we finish the competition for 2025 now? I think this is as good as it will get for me 🙂  

Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

+5
Viking3
03 February 2025 11:37:35
I've got a process running which derives climate data from synoptic reports in real time. The stats for the UK are based on the 0900 and 2100 UTC reports so the values derived are 24-hour 0900-0900 and so directly comparable to Met Office long term averages. It's not rigorously QCd but I correct any obvious gross errors if I see them. The anomalies are based on the most recent 1991-2020 period.

The link to the January data is here - http://www.winplot.co.uk/charts/Climate_summary_0909/202501d.txt 

February data is here - http://www.winplot.co.uk/charts/Climate_summary_0909/202502d.txt 

Keith

Aboyne, Aberdeenshire

135m asl

+1
scillydave
03 February 2025 20:41:24
January Results!

PositionNameCET difference
1Gezm0.05
2Dingle Rob0.10
2Saint Snow0.10
3Col0.11
4Lanky0.12
5Redmoons0.16
6AllyPally Snowman0.20
7Hungry Tiger0.40
8Frank H0.45
8Scillydave0.45
9Sussex Snow Magnet0.50
10Bertwhistle0.54
11Wallaw0.55
12Caz0.60
12Grandad0.60
13Kendalian0.70
14Dickieboy680.72
15Taylor17400.80
15Snowshoe0.80
16Bolty0.90
17Spring sun Winter dread1.00
18RickM1.05
19ARTzeman1.20
20Jemblow1.40
21Magda1.42
22Stormchaser1.50
23WindyWillow1.53
24Polar Westerly1.60

Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

+4
Saint Snow
03 February 2025 21:07:08
Can we please end the comp now?

Like those newly-promoted teams that find themselves near the top of the Premier League after a couple of games, it's downhill all the way for me from here.

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
04 February 2025 06:04:54
Congrats Gez!  
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.

+1
Dickieboy68
31 December 2025 11:28:19
Umm, if we are running again, I'd like to go for exactly the same as Jan 25 = +2.68.

I was bottom of the list last Jan, there was an early cold period, but it didn't last that long. Might be lasting longer in Jan 26, or at least an attempted reload later on. 

Happy new year all. Cheers 

Dickieboy - In the deep mid-Wiltshire 85m ASL

Formerly Guest (16) since 2004

Remove ads from site