The Weather Outlook

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Saint Snow
03 February 2025 21:04:55

Having been to Meteor Crater in Arizona and seen what a 30-50m wide meteorite can do, I don't fancy a 50-100m meteorite landing anywhere near here. The "tiny" probability stated by the EU of 13 in 1000 still sounds too close for comfort for something of that magnitude

Originally Posted by: lanky 



Hopefully it hits 26.6771° N / 80.0370° W

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Roger Parsons
03 February 2025 21:15:24
Spaceweather writes: "A sunspot complex more than 500,000 km wide is crossing the solar disk and crackling with solar flares. In the past 24 hours alone there has been one near-X flare and a half-a-dozen shortwave radio blackouts. This sets the stage for a week of potentially high solar activity."
https://spaceweather.com/ 
https://aurorawatch.lancs.ac.uk/ 
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Gandalf The White
03 February 2025 22:13:16

First posted and replied to 31st January in this thread. Keep up at the back there!

Originally Posted by: DEW 


It was date stamped today so I assumed it was a new item.

I did check your original post and the link doesn’t go to the right place.  Maybe I’m not the only one not keeping up…. 😉
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
03 February 2025 23:33:01

It was date stamped today so I assumed it was a new item.

I did check your original post and the link doesn’t go to the right place.  Maybe I’m not the only one not keeping up…. 😉

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


I'm sorry you had to wait for the BBC article to appear on 3rd Feb when the news had broken 3 days earlier. A pity that you weren't keeping an eye on what others post in this thread.

The link in my post originally referred to the daily display of front pages produced by the BBC, and was obviously valid at the time as Roger found it to work - witness his post #815. The link now takes you to a  text summary of front pages from 31st Jan, and indeed to a page I'd not seen before. I assume the BBC must have edited the original to keep the text without the graphics (and left out some of the papers). Obviously it helps if you read the item and use the link when it's posted and rather than 3 days later.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Gandalf The White
03 February 2025 23:52:20

I'm sorry you had to wait for the BBC article to appear on 3rd Feb when the news had broken 3 days earlier. A pity that you weren't keeping an eye on what others post in this thread.

The link in my post originally referred to the daily display of front pages produced by the BBC, and was obviously valid at the time as Roger found it to work - witness his post #815. The link now takes you to a  text summary of front pages from 31st Jan, and indeed to a page I'd not seen before. I assume the BBC must have edited the original to keep the text without the graphics (and left out some of the papers). Obviously it helps if you read the item and use the link when it's posted and rather than 3 days later.

Originally Posted by: DEW 


Well obviously I don’t check every thread every day; except for your daily model output summary, of course…. 🙂

Anyway, no need to be sorry but apology accepted 😉
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Roger Parsons
05 February 2025 09:01:36
Solar Flare possibility: "Since the week began, sunspot 3981 has produced 19 M-class solar flares. It's hyperactive. NOAA forecasters say there's a 20% chance that the sunspot could produce an X-flare on Feb. 5th, topping all of its previous explosions."
https://spaceweather.com/ 
Keep an eye on the incoming data:
https://aurorawatch.lancs.ac.uk/ 
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
+1
Roger Parsons
06 February 2025 04:19:12
Starlink Re-entries: "Last month, more than 120 Starlink satellites fell out of orbit. The daily rate of reentries is unprecedented and might be altering the chemistry of Earth's atmosphere. On the bright side, they make beautiful fireballs!"
https://spaceweather.com/ 
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
+1
Roger Parsons
06 February 2025 17:59:07
Clear sky here 18.00hrs with Venus, Saturn, Jupiter, Moon and Mars visible. Enjoy.
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
The Beast from the East
07 February 2025 02:01:00

Clear sky here 18.00hrs with Venus, Saturn, Jupiter, Moon and Mars visible. Enjoy.

Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 


with the naked eye? 

Sadly looks like being cloudy wet and miserable here for a while now. 
Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
Roger Parsons
07 February 2025 05:51:17
Absolutely! A stunning sight. No stars then visible - just the "dance" of the moon and planets. No detail of course without a 'scope. Maybe this evening for you?
https://skyandtelescope.org/astronomy-news/observing-news/this-weeks-sky-at-a-glance-january-31-february-9/ 
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
westv
10 February 2025 00:00:33

A asteroid 40-90 metres across has been identified with a currently estimated 1% chance of colliding with Earth on 22 December 2032.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cqx9dgpx98go 

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


It's 2.9% now.
At least it will be mild!
The Beast from the East
10 February 2025 01:11:48

It's 2.9% now.

Originally Posted by: westv 


I think humanity needs to be put out of its misery and we can start again and this time make a world that doesnt make Elon Musk the most powerful man 
Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
ozone_aurora
10 February 2025 07:30:09
As I said in another thread, I see no point in nationalism if some large rock comes hurtling towards Earth. Nationalism is a primitive thing that humans need to learn to overcome.
Roger Parsons
10 February 2025 07:34:09
"TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 11
Full Moon this evening and tomorrow evening. It's exactly full at 8:53 a.m. February 12th EST, about halfway between the two evenings for the longitudes of the Americas.
This evening the Moon rises in the east-northeast about a half hour before sunset. Watch it emerge into view through the fading daylight."

This Week's Sky at a Glance, February 7 – 16
https://skyandtelescope.org/astronomy-news/observing-news/this-weeks-sky-at-a-glance-february-7-16/ 
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Roger Parsons
10 February 2025 07:37:21

As I said in another thread, I see no point in nationalism if some large rock comes hurtling towards Earth. Nationalism is a primitive thing that humans need to learn to overcome.

Originally Posted by: ozone_aurora 


Many species have been wiped out by such events. While there's death there's hope!

"The paper ends on a profound — and perhaps ominous — note: “The available evidence suggests that, until modern times, only meteorite impacts could change the atmospheric mineralogy with such (geological) suddenness and persistence,” it reads. But now, things are different. Modern humans have the ability to drive climate change — and mass extinctions — through changes we make in our atmosphere in a way previously only achievable through giant impacts. And that puts some onus on modern society to consider the power we hold over our planet."

When it comes to mass extinction, meteorite size doesn’t matter
https://www.astronomy.com/science/when-it-comes-to-mass-extinction-meteorite-size-doesnt-matter/ 
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
+1
Roger Parsons
11 February 2025 07:50:42
Wish I'd seen this...
"My friends and I drove 4 hours from cloudy Tromso to clear skies in Finland," says Horálek. "We stopped at a frozen lake where a giant herd of reindeer were crossing. The auroras overhead were truly brilliant with 'spike' structures that I had never seen before."
https://spaceweather.com/images2025/10feb25/reindeer_strip.jpg 
https://spaceweather.com/ 
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
+1
Roger Parsons
13 February 2025 15:10:44
Worth a watch. Enjoy.
Astronaut's view of Northern Lights from International Space Station
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/videos/c07kljvv5mko 
Plus PSCs in Finland:
https://spaceweather.com/ 
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
+1
Roger Parsons
17 February 2025 15:50:59
Spaceweather.com says:
"When the sun goes down tonight, step outside and look southwest. Venus is beaming beautifully through the twilight. The view is even better through a telescope."
https://spaceweather.com/ 
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Roger Parsons
18 February 2025 17:07:22

A asteroid 40-90 metres across has been identified with a currently estimated 1% chance of colliding with Earth on 22 December 2032.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cqx9dgpx98go 

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Update on the asteroid, Peter.
"A new tranche of data released yesterday by JPL has increased the odds of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth in December 2032. The probability now stands at 2.6%, double what it was less than a month ago."
Odds on my being around to find out = >0. 😁
https://spaceweather.com/ 
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Roger Parsons
19 February 2025 21:27:27
More: " Yesterday, we reported that the odds of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth had risen to 2.6%. Only one day later the odds are 3.1%. New observations submitted to JPL overnight caused the increase. This makes 2024 YR4 the most dangerous known asteroid since modern tracking began. On the bright side, probabilities still favor a miss, albeit an increasingly near one." 😁
https://spaceweather.com/ 
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Roger Parsons
21 February 2025 10:53:37
Interesting piece on the Solar Max this week:
"The majority of solar activity has been happening in just one of the sun's hemispheres--the south. The solar superstorm of May 10, 2024, for instance, was caused by a monster southern sunspot.
https://spaceweather.com/images2025/20feb25/hemispheric_silso_strip.png 

It makes you wonder, is the other half of Solar Max still coming?
https://spaceweather.com/ 
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
+2
Roger Parsons
21 February 2025 17:37:10
Nice view of Venus and Saturn last night..
Venus, after standing alone, is joined by the crescent Moon and low little Mercury in twilight late this week. Higher in the night, Jupiter and Mars continue in their distinctive triangles.
https://skyandtelescope.org/astronomy-news/observing-news/this-weeks-sky-at-a-glance-february-21-march-2/ 
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Roger Parsons
26 February 2025 17:58:59
The way the media handle these stories is bloody awful! The brighter naked-eye planets have been visible for ages! All o'er the auction" as we say in Lincolnshire. Nevertheless, if skies are clear, have a look at the easy ones.
https://stellarium-web.org/ 
Seven planets to be visible in night sky for last time until 2040
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5yd4z15r54o 
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
+2
The Beast from the East
28 February 2025 14:44:56
Lovely viewing. 

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
Roger Parsons
01 March 2025 16:31:21

Lovely viewing. 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


This Senile Satyriasis must worrying, Beast.
By the time to get to my age you can blame it on failing eyes and memory...🙄
Google "Late Flowering Lust" by John Betjeman
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830

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