For my patch Arpege shows snow starting around 11pm and not stopping until around 6am or 7am tomorrow morning, by which time it suggests around 10cm of snow will have fallen.

The ICON D2 09z run shows snow from around midnight until 4-5am.

The 06z UKMO run shows just 2-3 hours of snow from around midnight, before it turns to rain.

Alaro 06z has the snow starting around 9pm and continuing until 5am, delivering 6-7cm of falling snow.

So, still a measure of uncertainty even this close, but my expectations of seeing some snow on the ground in the morning have increased a little.

Share your pain Neil too! Still we had falling and lying snow here in Chi back in November and I fully expect that to be it for this winter…temp here now up to 2.2 and  frost all gone….but yesterday was absolutely stunning with harsh frost and beautiful sunshine…a proper winter wonderland….

Still frosty at this end of Hampshire but I'm less optimistic for snow than I was yesterday. Looks like beginning as rather fragmented band, and it turns to rain well before the heavy stuff arrives.

Beyond that there’s also still a low chance of an easterly tug.

More current and the areas identified in the Amber warnings still looking good for prolonged snowfall tonight.

Neil,

I'm very happy to stand corrected but I've always thought that (to a large degree) ground conditions made little difference to snow settling. Obviously dry surfaces and those that conduct heat quickly have snow settling on them the most readily but if the temperature is very near or below freezing then it settles everywhere readily.  A good example of this would be the rain to snow events. Clearly it does make a difference but  think only a brief and marginal one.

It's a bit like the old 'cold air is hard to shift' one which I think is also untrue.

More experienced TWOers (Neil included) please feel free to tell me I'm spouting nonsense 🤣

The cold air is hard to shift one is nonsense, as we've seen it happen many a time. What's more important is the angle of attack of warm air, the more easterly the winds in advance the better.

And frustrating though it may be to watch heavy snow melt on impact, I've seen snow settle on wet ground - even puddled ground - several times over my life. Get the dewpoint low enough, get the snow heavy enough and it will settle. The trouble is much of our snow is so marginal to begin with it doesn't stand a chance!

I wonder if the precipitation is evaporating? On another radar (can't remember which) shows snow in the precipitation type with rain just ahead and to our south but snow over Dartmoor. But again nothing seen outside as yet.

Interestingly, OTOH, the BBC is much more pessimistic. The precipitation starts as sleet before turning to snow from 23:00 to 06:00, and then to sleet and eventually to rain. It's actually very rare to see the Met take a more optimistic approach. It seems to be the opposite, in my experience anyway.

Time will tell.

I'd be surprised if it doesn't turn back to sleet and then rain tomorrow. When I looked at it yesterday the boundary was between Leeds and Newcastle. GFS 06Z data (screenshot below) for Chorley has 850s climbing above 0C by midday.

To be honest, that's what I think as well. Your forecast is more in-line with what I'm expecting to happen. Snow until around 08:00, sleet for a while and then back to rain by late morning. I think the MO one is too optimistic.

Mogreps shows it is far from decided. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/mogreps/mogreps850leeds.png 

Ground temps are more certain, not rising much above freezing, but turning to freezing rain/ice pellets or very cold regular rain, who knows ..?

Snow amounts vary significantly...

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/mogreps/mogrepssdleeds.png 

The UKV based hourly forecast shows it staying as snow until about 8pm, but if you toggle data source to Arpege I think it's closer to midday.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/hourly-weather-forecast.aspx?loc=chorley--lancashire 

I was using the term ‘ground’ to describe all parameters, not just soil and surface conditions - my bad 😊 I’m a bit resigned to the fact this episode won’t deliver much here, but there’s still a low chance of something Wednesday.

Is it though? Sod’s Law it probably be more likely the other way 

Start from here

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/arome.aspx?run=06&charthour=8&chartname=preciprate&chartregion=uk-region&charttag=Precip%20rate 

Good stuff! I wonder, though, whether Arome is using graupel as a proxy for freezing rain in this case, as it doesn't have a field for that (AFAIK, anyway).

Many parts of Midlands as as Wales will see graupel instead of snow which was forecasted. It's strange how the beeb don't mention this as well as Met Office at best they will say wintry mix. As for the here and now the temp is still +2.0c and there hasn't even been a drop of rain let alone a flake of wet snow or sleet so it appears the front has stalled or precipitation has evaporated. As latest radar shows precipitation over Okehampton. Even "roadrunner" of Helston said (and hours ago) there has only been spits of rain and drizzle to dampen ground and Helston is in the far west of cornwall. Yet the met and bbc had this in heavy rain by now. So clearly the front is taking longer which is a worry as it will allow the warmer airmass to arrive...prior.