The Weather Outlook

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Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
03 January 2025 15:19:56

There was a big freezing rain event here in Dec 2018. At the time the Met Office app just showed heavy snow symbols which confused everyone. I think the new configuration just shows heavy rain instead. 

Originally Posted by: Tim A 

White coloured raindrops instead of blue perhaps? But then you'd still have to explain what it was.

I wonder how they deal with it in places like the NE US/SE Canada where these events are relatively common.


Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Retron
03 January 2025 15:49:50

White coloured raindrops instead of blue perhaps? But then you'd still have to explain what it was.

I wonder how they deal with it in places like the NE US/SE Canada where these events are relatively common.

Originally Posted by: Col 

The answer is - badly. There doesn't seem to be a decent way of showing freezing rain. And yes, I think the Met Office site has switched from showing a heavy snow symbol (as it did for the 2018 freezing rain) to just heavy rain now. XC just used a rain symbol and still does.

https://support.apple.com/en-gb/guide/iphone/iph4305794fb/ios 

https://developer.accuweather.com/weather-icons 

https://worldweather.wmo.int/en/wxicons.html 


Leysdown, north Kent
Chichesterweatherfan2
03 January 2025 15:56:41
In the context of the significant rise in hospital admissions due to flu over the Christmas period, a spell of freezing rain is going to pile even more pressure on A & E departments….I remember the only time here in Chichester  I can recall we had frozen rain…the pavements were lethal and atleast 2 people in our church fell and broke limbs on their way to church…
Retron
03 January 2025 16:19:27
A good afternoon of model-watching so far! The trend seems to be to continue to stall the front in the south, presumably as the trough disrupts a bit more than was modelled earlier. And the "fax" charts continue to evolve - I note the 12z T+24 has lost one of the warm fronts compared to the 0z T+36, the initial front has become a shorter occluded front instead.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/88/9211/fax24symy4.gif 

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/64/20378/fax84sity0.gif 

The upshot of this is that GFS is now modelling 7cm on the ground here rather than the 1-4cm it's shown in the previous runs. That could be as good as it gets, but either way I'm sure there will continue to be changes over the next 30 hours or so.

Beyond that the models are toying with a snow event over parts of southern England on Tuesday. GEM has it north of the M40, GFS has it south of the M40, ICON has it a bit further north again. Note this is distinct from the potential Channel low a day or two later, and is a reminder that small features will continue to come and go over the next few days' worth of output!

Here's the Tuesday snow in the south as shown on ICON:

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/3/16111/iconeu_uk1_1_90_0ska4.png 

UserPostedImage


Leysdown, north Kent
Chunky Pea
03 January 2025 16:35:43

We had one around 2008 or 2009.

Was treacherous underfoot - I found it great fun!!

As a weather event, I liked it, as it was something out of the boring monotony. But I'd prefer the 24-36 hours of snow that the models were showing for here a couple of days ago.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Very possibly 2009, as we had a similar event here in I think December that year. Almost the entire country was brought to a halt. You literally couldn't walk out the front door without taking your life into your hands. 


Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
03 January 2025 16:51:41
I only recall seeing freezing rain fall once but can’t remember when but possibly 2018.  I can vividly remember another occasion when rain fell on frozen ground and it created a lethal glaze on roads and footpaths.  Some potentially extremely dangerous conditions over the weekend and possibly into Monday morning.  I plan to stay at home. 
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.

Hippydave
03 January 2025 17:20:07
Picking up on the GEM run, that has the mid week LP affecting a decent strip in the south, with precip IMBY for around 12 hours. Assuming that was snow it'd be a fun little spell!

UserPostedImage

Will wait for UKMO UK charts to see what it's doing re Tuesday's possible feature/enhanced instability and if it has any precip from the Weds/Thursday LP, although there wasn't much pink showing on the global model chart. 

I'll leave others to comment on the more imminent snow potential for the weekend as snow to rain events depress me and that's all I'm getting so I'm ignoring it (I might go for a play on the gravel bike if we do get some temporary accumulations though!). 

Edit - the UK charts from the UKMO aren't particularly exciting - seems to be a bit more instability Monday into Tuesday for some parts but nothing that looks particularly organised and nothing for MBY. The mid week low just scrapes the far south inc Kent for a short time, with what's shown as a rain/sleet/snow mix. Booo!


Home: Tunbridge Wells

Work: Tonbridge

Lionel Hutz
03 January 2025 18:04:58
https://us.v-cdn.net/6034073/uploads/3SAXEBCIT2AI/00d7d429-da91-4dea-9af1-5c6a449c4e35.jpeg 

I'm becoming increasingly confident that my location should see some snow. I'm right on the borderline between Meteireann's yellow/orange warnings but the UK Met map is certainly cheering. 

In addition, looking at Windy.com, the wind here should back increasingly from South East to East by Saturday evening and Northerly by Sunday so the wind will no longer be coming off the sea. That said, I'm certainly not counting any chickens. All of the automated apps show no snow for me except briefly on Sunday afternoon. 

Either way, the UK met map above suggests something quite significant for  large parts of England, Wales and Ireland. 


Lionel Hutz

Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland

68m ASL



Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
03 January 2025 19:04:19

The answer is - badly. There doesn't seem to be a decent way of showing freezing rain. And yes, I think the Met Office site has switched from showing a heavy snow symbol (as it did for the 2018 freezing rain) to just heavy rain now. XC just used a rain symbol and still does.

https://support.apple.com/en-gb/guide/iphone/iph4305794fb/ios 

https://developer.accuweather.com/weather-icons 

https://worldweather.wmo.int/en/wxicons.html 

Originally Posted by: Retron 

I think that last one deals with it the best, giving the impression of rain creating ice at the surface, but it's a difficult concept to convey.


Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Matty H
03 January 2025 19:16:24
I’ve been to the States many times, and although the apps may be crap, The Weather Channel definitely isn’t, and they cover extreme winter weather events like freezing rain extensively when they occur, and bear in mind these aren’t what we had in 1995 or 2018 or whenever. These things go on for many hours at times and can pile up such weight of ice they can collapse electricity pylons, trees, roofs etc
Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
03 January 2025 19:48:43
Slight changes to the shape of that low could make a big difference to the outcome in regard to where the snow, sleet, rain, freezing rain, graupel, ice pelets and snow pellets all are (and I suspect we will see all of them, though in the later case probably in the showers in the far north)

One thing I am increasingly confident on though is that the UK is not going to get it worst, Ireland will. Parts of the central south will get alot of snow.


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

tallyho_83
03 January 2025 22:29:21

Slight changes to the shape of that low could make a big difference to the outcome in regard to where the snow, sleet, rain, freezing rain, graupel, ice pelets and snow pellets all are (and I suspect we will see all of them, though in the later case probably in the showers in the far north)

One thing I am increasingly confident on though is that the UK is not going to get it worst, Ireland will. Parts of the central south will get alot of snow.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Yet usually Ireland escapes the snow or misses out - So good they will get to see some esp the south.

Lionz will be pleased...

Local weather goes for warnings of snow here and possible accumulations over moors before turning back to rain but stressed a lot of uncertainty.UserPostedImage

UserPostedImage

UserPostedImage

It looks like the precipitation band could be a heavy one and therefore we could see evaporative cooling and we all know what that means...?? - We shall see :)


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

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Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Snowedin3
03 January 2025 22:42:23
 ARPEGE looking Snow tastic, such a shame it’s all going to melt 😞
Dean Barnes

Finstock, Chipping Norton, Oxfordshire

160m ASL 525 Ft

tallyho_83
04 January 2025 00:06:02

ARPEGE looking Snow tastic, such a shame it’s all going to melt :(

Originally Posted by: Snowedin3 

I see arpege along with many models and even forecast actually show the temperature dropping by a degree or two in the south going from +4c to +2c in Exeter with rain at 13:00  then sleet at 18:00 when it's +2c before rising there-after and Dartmoor going from +2c by to 0c by 18:00 before rising after, Tiverton, Devon goes from +3c midday to +1c with sleet by 18:00, anyway, you get the idea... 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635762 

So it looks like some parts of SW could well see some wet snow before all rain which denotes evaporative cooling and may be the fact that the precipitation will be heavier and with the ground already frozen it wouldn't surprise me if we do have some freezing rain as well.  

Prime exaample the Arpege show the south west are in the +2's and +3s by 12:00 and then temps drop to 0c by 18:00

UserPostedImage

18:00 below (In the heavier precipitation): - Temps have dropped to 0c in many parts of south west. So this means there could be evaporative cooling in the heavier precipitation but then rising after.

UserPostedImage


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

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Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Tim A
04 January 2025 06:11:50
I think it's going to be a nowcast as to where the mild air ends up, 30 miles is nothing in terms of margin for error but could make all the difference.  I do think on the day things often tend to move through quicker than forecast though.  

GFS and ECM turn the snow to rain here, ECM first in the morning and GFS afternoon before turning back to snow.  Back edge snow could be a thing for some. 

UKMO is an all snow event here as slightly further South. Met Office app is almost there too , turns to sleet in the evening. UKV is excellent for here.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/ukv/03_44_snow_depth.png . Some highly populated areas in that high snow depth area.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/ukv/03_27_snow_depth.png 

The Midlands wakes up to a good fall in places. 

Elevation might be needed or luck with heavy precipitation as can be seen from the above. Also the amber warning does mention the Vale of York snow being less certain and probably applies to other very low areas too. 


Tim

NW Leeds

187m asl

 My PWS 

StoneCroze
04 January 2025 07:36:47
Snowing over the Brest peninsular in Brittany.
Alderney, Channel Islands. (previously known as Beaufort)
Crepuscular Ray
04 January 2025 08:29:01
I've got a horrible feeling that Edinburgh will get a 'wintry mix' tomorrow. Rain and sleet as the easterly wind increases off the sea

I've no doubt the Fife Hills, The Lammemuirs, Moorfoots and Pentlands will get more lying snow but not sure about the city 🤔


Jerry

Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill

Lionel Hutz
04 January 2025 08:42:25
Looks like much of Ireland will see heavy snow. Unfortunately, judging by the Meteireann forecast, I am likely to be in the Southern coastal area which has flooding warnings! We'll see.....

I would love to see real snow, for my children more than anything else. They're 11 and 9 and they only proper snow that they have ever seen was in 2018 when they were too young to really remember it today. I will be very disappointed if we miss out. Given our climate, this could be their last chance to experience heavy snow as children. 


Lionel Hutz

Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland

68m ASL



speckledjim
04 January 2025 08:52:19

Looks like much of Ireland will see heavy snow. Unfortunately, judging by the Meteireann forecast, I am likely to be in the Southern coastal area which has flooding warnings! We'll see.....

Originally Posted by: Lionel Hutz 

Looking like it's already snowing in Waterford


Thorner, West Yorkshire



Journalism is organised gossip

doctormog
04 January 2025 08:55:04

I've got a horrible feeling that Edinburgh will get a 'wintry mix' tomorrow. Rain and sleet as the easterly wind increases off the sea

I've no doubt the Fife Hills, The Lammemuirs, Moorfoots and Pentlands will get more lying snow but not sure about the city 🤔

Originally Posted by: Crepuscular Ray 

I share your concern, and despite the fact that is really cold here and we mostly keep the cold upper air, the easterly component will bring rain here making a mess of the snow that is here and causing big problems with ice when colder weather comes back in. Staying dry (or even precipitation falling as snow) would be so much better.


johncs2016
04 January 2025 08:57:44

I've got a horrible feeling that Edinburgh will get a 'wintry mix' tomorrow. Rain and sleet as the easterly wind increases off the sea

I've no doubt the Fife Hills, The Lammemuirs, Moorfoots and Pentlands will get more lying snow but not sure about the city 🤔

Originally Posted by: Crepuscular Ray 

On average, you (along with Noodle Doodle who we haven't heard from for a while) are usually more likely to see snow in the south of Edinburgh than I am here in NW Edinburgh, so you just never know.

I don't see myself as being lucky with that here though.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

roadrunnerajn
04 January 2025 09:20:32
I know the fun and games for this weekend hasn’t even started yet…but I’m looking at Wednesday with a little more interest. It’s finally balanced but there is a chance that the south west could see a wintery mix of sleet or wet snow … fingers crossed.

I would also add that I think places away from the coast and above 100m north of a line from north wales to the wash will keep any snow that falls with minimal melt. 


Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic. 80m asl
Lionel Hutz
04 January 2025 09:56:17

Looking like it's already snowing in Waterford

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 

Unfortunately, no. Overcast but frosty and around 0c.


Lionel Hutz

Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland

68m ASL



nsrobins
04 January 2025 10:15:35
Good luck or bad luck (whatever your persuasion) for this weekend. The frost is melting here and we won’t see snow this far south. The focus is on Weds now and as this weekends system trended north the next one looks trending south so we’ll probably miss again.

It was ‘easier’ in the old days I’m sure of it. 


Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Jiries
04 January 2025 10:21:27
Seen the apple app which not very reliable but removed the rain out and just direct snow from 8pm to 5am and then dry but cold up to 2C by 10am.  Not sure if the low had trended further south.  Early this morning was showing rain at 6am onward.  For Letchworth 6C and London 10C at the end of the hourly forecast run.  Stark differences in temperatures.

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