Trying to decide if I'd rather be in my location or yours 😂- on balance I think yours although at least I know it's going to rain IMBY and any snow will be quickly washed away, you have the possibility of cover remaining and are at the mercy of small adjustments to track and precip intensity. It's the hope that kills ya and all that!

On the plus side if you do end up with a decent cover remaining it's probably going to stick around for a while. 

Two amber warnings now. 

One for Midlands to account for freezing rain too.

Lots to digest and some high totals possible. 

The northern one has no mention of turning to rain. However I would think rain will get north of the Humber looking at this mornings output, 6z UKMO slightly further North than the 00z.   

And as a result of the above, the MetO raw for here has changed from pure rain, to a single sleet symbol yesterday evening, to a single heavy snow symbol first thing this morning, and now to two heavy snow symbols as we're coming up to lunchtime. In other words, the modelling continues to suggest disruption of the low and that can only be good news, especially for those a bit further west. That also delays the arrival of the sultry dewpoints (tucked behind the second warm front on the "fax" chart), meaning a greater chance of seeing snow still on the ground first thing (rather than it being a "check out the window at 1AM" special).

https://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax48.gif?01-18 

(And at the wolf centre, 100 miles due west of here, they're forecast 4 hours of snow, 2 hours of sleet and then some rain. There will almost certainly be some slushy stuff around during the early daylight hours.)

Given the ICON6Z downgrade can anyone shed any light on this?

Can the ICON downgrade while the ICON-2D upgrades? I would have thought they are driven by the same global model.

What is going on?

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/60/1518/harmoniefrno_37_41ung3.png 

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/94/21885/harmoniefrno_19_41igr0.png 

I have to take my son to a children's party at 5pm tomorrow, looks like I should be able to get home again well before any snow arrives but I will be keeping an eye on it!

I'm actually starting to think the ICON6Z-2D wasn't any different substantially to the ICON6Z its just that further south earlier on became further north later on.

We see that with the UKV9Z vs UKV6Z, the former is actually better despite being initially further north, at the improtant moment it pulls off to the east quicker.

Likewise here as there has been no sign of any snow or even sleet in the forecast, but this has slowly changed from a single sleet symbol for an hour to 6 hours of sleet! We are even in the amber warning zone for tomorrow. Whilst I'm still not expecting anything special it is certainly trending the right way.

Edit: just had a closer look and as we are right on the coast we are just outside the amber warning area.

Only difference is the 9Z looks slightly heavier.

Just a couple of hours of light snow or sleet here ...... followed by 4 hours of heavy snow (>95%)  😃 

This says different, but I don’t presume it’s accurate as I’d imagine it’s based on one operational output from a model 

It looks much the same?  Maybe 3 hours of heavy snow rather than 4…. after perhaps 5-6 hours of a wintry mix.

I meant regarding my previous post about the apps, rather than Andy’s area/post

https://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/Evesham 

We’ve been upgraded to Amber for snow and ice from tomorrow night into Monday morning.  It’s likely we’ll have a winter wonderland Sunday morning turning to a treacherous ice rink by mid morning, as snow turns to freezing rain.  

I only look at the Met Office 😛   

(Which is usually more conservative when it comes to snowfall here)

The snow/rain line and the thaw line are not the same as they usually are. And the ECM6Z is far from the only model to suggest this. Freezing rain risk is significant this weekend.

And potentially far more dangerous than the actual snow. I recall (David M Porter Mode) around 1995/1996 we had a freezing rain event here at around this time of year too, it might even have been NYD. It was absolute carnage. Everything coated in mm’s of crystal clear ice and the trees sounded like they were bags of crisps in the breeze

It's a shame websites handle freezing rain so poorly. Neither xc, the BBC or the Met Office website have a way of displaying it, the only clue you'll get is a prolonged period of rain at 0C (which is unusual IME, normally the temperature rises or it's sleet, soft hail or snow instead).

Given how dangerous it is, you think there would be a better way of signposting it! Mind you, lots of people don't even know what freezing rain is - I remember the blank looks I got at work back in 2018 when I mentioned it being likely, and people seemed to think I was just saying "really cold rain that feels icy when it hits you" rather than "supercooled water which freezes on contact with a surface". Indeed, I've a feeling most people don't realise you can get liquid water below freezing!

This was the view out of the back bedroom window (which was a normal, albeit old, clear window) during the 2018 freezing rain. This will be a scene repeated quite widely on Sunday morning, I suspect!

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/fzrn.jpg 

I remember that - was running a pub in Stonehouse at the time.   No-one could get out!  😃    The only serious freezing rain event I've experienced.

We had one around 2008 or 2009.

Was treacherous underfoot - I found it great fun!!

As a weather event, I liked it, as it was something out of the boring monotony. But I'd prefer the 24-36 hours of snow that the models were showing for here a couple of days ago.