EDIT: And the MetO raw is up to 59 now, which is the highest it's shown here for several years. Not good!

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/12_78_windvector_gust.png 

It's lower than whatever the MetO raw uses, and I'd be happy enough with that - IME bad things start to happen above 60, and above 70 is when the really expensive stuff starts happening (e.g. roof tiles falling on cars).

I'm not sure what it is about GFS that means it prefers to ramp up wind speeds. So far this autumn/winter it's been 3-1 to GFS vs MetO, or in other words three times the MetO raw has gradually crept up to whatever GFS was showing all along. The exception was the last storm, where the lower MetO values ended up being the correct ones (and GFS downgraded at the last minute).

EDIT: And wind aside, the 12z GFS goes on to develop a massive dump of snow in the south, as a low stalls and gets shredded. Just goes to show how small changes upstream make the difference between a quick collapse and an old-school battleground. I'd still feel happier though if it would just downgrade the wind!

This GFS op run is broadly similar (at this stage) to the 00z op run.

Yep pointless looking at detail but consistency of the pattern will be important - the key is still the low midweek and the track of this will define much of what comes after. 

On that point it looks nasty midweek especially with a lot of travelling taking place.

Yes, once the snow comes down it hangs around, and just look at those minima over the snowfields... a classic run in the end.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/12_225_uksnowdepth.png 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/12_228_uk2mtmpmin.png 

I find the GFS is usually in and around the mark for winds and wind speed. Regarding storm tracks, the UKMO is typically the best model to watch in my opinion. And if the ECMWF is your thing, the Estonian Met Office have some nice hourly maps with a number of parameters available, including mean wind and gust speed in a clean and easy to read format. 

https://www.ilmateenistus.ee/ilm/prognoosid/mudelprognoosid/euroopa/?lang=en#layers/tuul106g,presmslp 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=25&run=12&time=300&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 

Yes, and as I think you intimated earlier, and as has been noted before, the 00z and 12z are the two more reliable runs of the four, in that order.

It’s all still very messy in terms of precision about what might fall from the sky, how much and where, as is to be expected so far ahead.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=17&run=12&time=330&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=204&code=code&mode=5&mode3h=0&runpara=0&carte=1 

There's really not much difference.

The anomaly coefficients at t+5 days:

00Z, 12Z: 0.893

06Z, 18Z: 0.890

See:

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/global/gfs/prod/atmos/long_term/images/evs.global_det.gfs_4cycles.acc.hgt_p500.past10years_monthly.timeseriesdiff_init00z06z12z18z_f120.g004_nhem.png 

Thanks, but I was talking about the period beyond 5 days, where the 06z threw up a very difffent evolution - for whatever reason.

IIRC the 00z and 12z are populated with the most up to date data?

Look at France miss out the cold and here so cold!  Hope to see lot snow events from Wed and to the  weekend.

At t+10 days the 12Z is marginally more accurate than the others. That said, there isn't a neck in it and I would think the latest run would be better at t+240 than the previous one at t+246.

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/global/gfs/prod/atmos/long_term/images/evs.global_det.gfs_4cycles.acc.hgt_p500.past10years_monthly.timeseriesdiff_init00z06z12z18z_f240.g004_nhem.png 

We can but dream Jiries. 

Edit: GEFS look very mixed.

Comparing the 12Z to 6Z GEFS out to 192, the initial cold is prolonged a bit but we still have a very pronounced split by day 7. Maybe a few more on the mild side than the 6Z had, but the op run is (no surprise) in the cold set. 

Well, there's a 10x higher than normal chance of winning a million of you *did* have a ticket, as it's a special superdraw for New Year's Eve.

That said, assuming you have a ticket, you're still more likely to win that million than have the 12z GFS op come off, I reckon! 😂

On a more serious note, despite the damaging winds still shown on the op, the ensembles have ever so slightly toned things down. Long may that trend continue.

GFS continue to ramp up wind speeds across Kent on Wednesday evening, touching 80 mph gusts, albeit briefly (mercifully). UKMO and the lesser known GEM appears to be showing toned down versions and the ICON is showing it even completely bypassing to our south, so it's still not set in stone and can expect some downgrades. Wonder what the mighty ECM might come up with.

As for the "good stuff" beyond, I might start snow-hoping once we get Wednesday's rough stuff out of the way but I suspect it'll all have evaporated to nothingness by then. 🤣